Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
653 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

An area of heavy rainfall is now departing MAF with radar trends
showing a lull in convective activity expected across the eastern
terminals over the next few hours. However, showers and storms
should increase in coverage by 15Z across the SE NM terminals with
TSRA expected at CNM and HOB. Heavy rainfall will reduce VSBYs to
around 2SM at times. Current area cigs range from VFR to MVFR.
Low ceilings should lift before 18Z at most terminals except for
CNM and HOB where MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue into the
afternoon due to persistent thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible throughout
the day today and into tonight. A Flash Flood Watch is now in
effect thru 12Z Tuesday. An environment that is rich with moisture
remains in place over the forecast area. PWATs are 2-3 sd above
normal, a stationary front is draped across region, and a nearly
stationary ULL is situated over far W TX. All of these factors
will contribute to continued heavy rainfall and potential flash
flooding. Latest CAMs including 3km NAM and HRRR place the highest
QPF totals across Eddy County and the HWY 54 corridor. Storm
totals thru Tuesday morning could reach upwards of 2-3" across SE
NM. An additional 1-2" will be possible along and N of the I-20
corridor where flash flood guidance would easily be overcome due
to recent rainfall and already saturated soils. Temperatures will
remain well below seasonal norms today and Tuesday due to
persistent cloudiness and abundant moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

Rain chances begin diminishing on Wednesday as an upper level
trough lifts to the north and high pressure over the southeastern
U.S. builds over Texas. The highest PoPs late in the week will be
over the western CWA, in closer vicinity to the trough and
diminish to the east as the influence of high pressure increases.
The high pressure building in will also cause temperatures to
increase with highs approaching normal levels by Friday. It is
then that a low pressure system over the Great Lakes sends another
cold front into the area on Saturday. This front, combined with a
series of upper disturbances associated with the low will increase
instability and once again create a decent chance for rainfall
over the weekend. Week cold air advection and increasing cloud
cover will drop temps a few degrees continuing refreshingly cool
weather. The NBM appears to be handling temps and PoPs pretty well
and the extended forecast remained pretty close to this guidance.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               79  67  81  67 /  70  70  60  60
Carlsbad                 75  65  77  65 /  80  80  90  80
Dryden                   88  70  87  70 /  40  50  40  50
Fort Stockton            81  67  83  67 /  70  60  60  60
Guadalupe Pass           69  60  71  61 /  80  80  80  70
Hobbs                    73  65  75  65 /  80  80  80  80
Marfa                    77  60  79  59 /  70  60  70  50
Midland Intl Airport     78  67  80  67 /  70  70  60  60
Odessa                   79  67  80  67 /  70  70  70  60
Wink                     82  69  84  68 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Andrews-Borden-
     Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
328 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-290830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
328 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 /228 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and flash flooding are expected across much
of the area today and tonight. A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect
through late tonight for the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico,
the upper Trans Pecos, and Davis Mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall may result in flash flooding
over the next several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is anticipated and any reports of flooding or
flash flooding can be relayed to local officials or the NWS.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland