Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1115 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

.AVIATION...
Updated for 06Z terminals...

A trough of low pressure will bring a cold front across the state
tonight with showers and thunderstorms. Gusty southwest winds are
expected ahead of the front, and northwest winds behind the
front. Low ceilings and restricted visibilities (IFR or lower) are
expected at times, especially with heavier precipitation. Rain
should exit eastern sections in the morning. Clouds will decrease
in the afternoon. Expect VFR conditions by mid day or early
afternoon as the front exits the state.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 231 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday

Showers and storms continue developing across OK and KS this
afternoon in response to a deepening upper trough, currently
positioned over the central Plains, and sharpening attendant cold
front draped from northern KS southwestward across West TX. At
present, only increasing cloud cover is noted over AR although
isolated to widely scattered showers will become increasingly
likely by late afternoon into the evening.

The cold front will accelerate through AR tonight into Thursday
morning as the parent upper trough advances eastward across the
Plains. Increasing H850 flow and pre-frontal WAA will further
increase convective coverage as the front moves in with virtually
the entire area expected to see measurable rain, although lower
deep tropospheric moisture content will limit max values to under
2 inches, except in localized heavier downpours.

Severe weather potential remains low based on this morning's
guidance and trends, although there will be modest potential for a
couple of strong storms across western/southwestern AR as
convection grows upscale along the surging front. Instability
progs keep MUCAPE values just under 1000 J/kg and weakening deep
layer shear/kinematics will preclude a more substantial severe
weather risk. Damaging winds and isolated severe hail will be
possible in the strongest storms this evening and overnight.

The front and associated convective activity will push east of
the area by very early afternoon at the latest with clearing
skies and breezy northwesterly winds in its wake. While drier air
will filter in through the day tomorrow, the bulk of cooler air
will not arrive until very late in the period as another front
quickly drops in from the north on Friday. Some rain is possible
over northern sections during the day Friday with seasonably cool
air moving in by later Friday and into the long term.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday

By late Friday, an upper trough axis will be pushing east of the
state and NW upper flow will have set in across much of the
Plains. The upper ridge that had expanded across the western
states will weaken as a SWT moves along the leeward side of the
ridge across the northern Plains Saturday, prolonging NW upper
flow. As the SWT continues SEward, the larger upper trough will
deepen across the Midwest and Ohio River Valley Regions Sunday. At
the same time, another upper ridge will build and expand across
the western states with continued surface high pressure across the
southern Plains.

From early to mid next week, the upper ridge will progress eastward,
followed by a large-scale upper trough extending from an upper low
over Canada southward through the Plains. This will be reflected at
the surface as a low pressure system in Canada, with a frontal
boundary extending southward. Our next chance for widespread
precipitation will be ahead of that boundary the middle of next
week.

Temperatures are forecast below average until next Tuesday, when
southerly flow on the west side of surface high pressure will return
warmer southerly air to near normal levels.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...51/57

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
236 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
236 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

As a cold front sweeps through the state tonight, showers and
storms will become widespread. Isolated strong to severe storms
will be possible over western and southwestern Arkansas, although
the threat for severe weather remains low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Hazardous weather is not expected.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation Will Not Be Needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

DTC/57/71

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1046 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

ARZ012-021-022-030-037-110530-
Pope AR-Johnson AR-Newton AR-Scott AR-Logan AR-
1046 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Logan, Johnson,
southwestern Newton, northwestern Scott and northwestern Pope
Counties through 1130 PM CST...

At 1045 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pettigrew to Ozark to Charleston to near
Hackett. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville...                    Booneville...
Waldron...                        Paris...
Lamar...                          Mansfield...
Magazine...                       Knoxville...
Subiaco...                        Hartman...
Scranton...                       Ratcliff...
Blue Mountain...                  Devils Knob...
Hoyt...                           Midway in Logan County...
Holman...                         Rosetta...
Dillen...                         Woodland...

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 45 and 72.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 9445 3497 9423 3506 9424 3514 9403
      3523 9403 3523 9392 3532 9391 3531 9381
      3543 9381 3536 9375 3538 9371 3577 9369
      3573 9317 3547 9322 3547 9330 3521 9328
      3522 9346 3514 9371 3511 9371 3474 9445
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 283DEG 41KT 3575 9366 3546 9382 3530 9403 3515
9439

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

57

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1121 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

ARZ021>023-030-031-037>039-041-042-110600-
Pope AR-Johnson AR-Perry AR-Scott AR-Van Buren AR-Logan AR-Yell AR-
Conway AR-Garland AR-Montgomery AR-
1121 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Logan, Perry,
eastern Johnson, southwestern Van Buren, Conway, northwestern
Garland, eastern Scott, Yell, northern Montgomery and Pope Counties
through MIDNIGHT CST...

At 1121 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Dillen to near Knoxville to near Blue
Mountain to near Waldron. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Russellville...                   Morrilton...
Waldron...                        Danville...
Perryville...                     Mount Ida...
Dardanelle...                     Atkins...
Pottsville...                     Lamar...
Dover...                          Ola...
London...                         Oppelo...
Knoxville...                      Hector...
Perry...                          Oden...
Adona...                          Blue Mountain...

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 62 and 109.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 9372 3535 9346 3573 9324 3545 9253
      3499 9281 3486 9297 3486 9307 3478 9308
      3442 9389 3451 9393 3468 9393 3468 9402
      3494 9415
TIME...MOT...LOC 0521Z 303DEG 35KT 3565 9321 3532 9341 3511 9367 3494
9402

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

62