Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
256 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday
High pressure aloft continues from the Gulf of Mexico into the
western U.S. this afternoon. The upper trough remains over the
eastern Great Lakes and is sagging southward. The trough will
continue its southward expansion into the mid Mississippi Valley
tonight and Sunday.

A cold front is stalled near the Missouri border and will begin
moving slowly south on Sunday. The front should stall in southern
Arkansas Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
in the southern half of the state this afternoon into this evening.
There is a slight chance a storm could develop in the north this
afternoon. As several short waves move through, the highest rain
chances Sunday and Monday will be in the southern half of the state
ahead of the cold front. Heavy rainfall will be the main concern
with these storms.

Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.
Lows tonight and Sunday night will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s
and in the mid 60s to lower 70s Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
To begin the period, a stalled frontal boundary will push north out
of Lousiana back into the CWA. As this front pushes back north, PoPs
look to become elevated mainly in the afternoon hours into the early
evening. The stalled front looks to push through, exiting the
state by late in the week. As high pressure builds in, PoPs will
continue to stay elevated with diurnal convection possible.

Additionally, Fred looks to make landfall along the Gulf coast,
likely in the Florida panhandle. No impacts to Arkansas are
expected with Fred.

Temperatures look to be average to slightly above average through
the period. High temps are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower
90s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  86  66  88 /  20  20  10  20
Camden AR         70  87  69  89 /  50  50  20  30
Harrison AR       64  85  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
Hot Springs AR    70  87  68  89 /  40  40  20  30
Little Rock   AR  70  88  69  89 /  40  30  20  30
Monticello AR     72  88  70  89 /  50  50  30  50
Mount Ida AR      69  86  67  88 /  40  40  10  20
Mountain Home AR  64  86  65  88 /  10  10  10  10
Newport AR        68  85  67  87 /  20  20  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     71  88  70  89 /  50  40  20  40
Russellville AR   70  89  68  90 /  20  20  10  20
Searcy AR         69  88  67  89 /  30  30  10  30
Stuttgart AR      72  88  70  89 /  40  40  20  40
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

Short Term...51 / Long Term...233

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
414 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
414 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again today and
tonight. Localized flash flooding from heavy downpours and
isolated damaging wind gusts will be the main threats, although
widespread hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

Showers and storms will become more isolated to scattered late
weekend into next week, and generally confined to the afternoon
and evening hours. Any severe weather will be isolated. While
heavy downpours are possible in places, flash flooding should be
localized at most. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at
this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

DTC/46

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
230 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

ARZ068-069-142000-
Bradley AR-Drew AR-
230 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Bradley
and southwestern Drew Counties through 300 PM CDT...

At 229 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Fountain Hill to near
Ingalls to 7 miles west of West Crossett. Movement was south at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ingalls...                        New Hope in Drew County...
Vick...                           Valley...
Mt Olive in Bradley County...     Johnsonville...
Sumpter...                        Lacey...
Blanchton...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3316 9217 3321 9218 3320 9219 3321 9222
      3325 9222 3326 9224 3345 9213 3357 9185
      3340 9178 3340 9199 3338 9196 3335 9199
      3330 9198 3330 9200 3324 9209 3321 9208
      3321 9213 3317 9213
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 348DEG 8KT 3342 9193 3337 9207 3319 9214

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

232

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
302 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

ARZ065-068-069-142030-
Bradley AR-Drew AR-Desha AR-
302 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Bradley,
southwestern Desha and southern Drew Counties through 330 PM CDT...

At 302 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Dermott to near Fountain Hill to West
Crossett. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Monticello...                     Green Hill...
McGehee...                        Ladelle...
Prairie Grove...                  New Hope in Drew County...
Enon...                           Johnsonville...
Blanchton...                      Collins...
Vick...                           Valley...
Mt Olive in Bradley County...     Lacey...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 3318 9218 3321 9218 3321 9222 3323 9223
      3344 9210 3364 9178 3363 9134 3339 9175
      3340 9199 3338 9196 3335 9199 3330 9198
      3330 9200 3328 9200 3328 9204 3326 9205
      3324 9209 3321 9208 3321 9213 3317 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 261DEG 12KT 3352 9149 3341 9187 3315 9204

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

232