Flash Flood Warning 114, NWS Little Rock, AR

848 
WGUS74 KLZK 142017
FFSLZK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
317 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

ARC001-011-013-025-079-085-142027-
/O.CAN.KLZK.FF.W.0114.000000T0000Z-210814T2140Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Arkansas AR-Bradley AR-Calhoun AR-Cleveland AR-Lincoln AR-Lonoke AR-
317 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LONOKE, WEST 
CENTRAL ARKANSAS, NORTH CENTRAL BRADLEY, CLEVELAND, WESTERN LINCOLN 
AND NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3406 9231 3416 9228 3448 9226 3449 9204
      3448 9171 3407 9173 3407 9174 3409 9174
      3409 9180 3409 9195 3406 9195

$$

ARC053-069-142145-
/O.CON.KLZK.FF.W.0114.000000T0000Z-210814T2140Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grant AR-Jefferson AR-
317 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 440 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN GRANT AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 317 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Additional rainfall amounts of up to 2 
inches is possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or 
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Pine Bluff, White Hall, Redfield, Altheimer, Warbritton, Pine 
  Bluff Arsenal, Cottondale, Hensley Island, Madding, Linwood, 
  Richardson, Orion, Lamont, Sulphur Springs, Wabbaseka, Sherrill, 
  Pastoria, Rob Roy, Watson Chapel and Dexter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 9231 3416 9228 3448 9226 3449 9204
      3448 9171 3407 9173 3407 9174 3409 9174
      3409 9180 3409 9195 3406 9195

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

67

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1223 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 18z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

The forecast area with the exception of the the northern terminals
will be hindered by showers and thunderstorms throughout the
forecast period. Cigs and visby will be impacted by scattered
showers/thunderstorms that have the potential to lower flight
categories.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 405 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

As of 09Z this morning, we remain situated in a soupy summer air
mass with a weak cold front hung up across the Ozarks in southern
MO. Abundant moisture and residual elevated instability ahead of the
front, coupled with weak troughing aloft and transient impulses
embedded within the trough, have supported continued shower activity
overnight with some occasional lightning, particularly over southern
sections where relatively stronger convection continues.

Today, a stronger impulse embedded within the broader mid/upper
trough will traverse the central Plains and finally push the cold
front into AR later this evening. It remains a bit uncertain how
much convective coverage we will see as the front moves through with
guidance showing much less coverage/QPF through tonight.

Did not want to introduce wholesale changes for now, although the
focus of greatest thunder potential and rain has shifted south to
encompass mainly the southeastern two-thirds of the area through
this evening. Isolated to widely scattered activity should continue
into tonight as well. By Sunday into Sunday night, the front will
slow and eventually stall over central/southern AR. As such, precip
chances will continue shifting south through late weekend.

Parameters remain largely unfavorable for a more widespread
severe/flood threat. That said, plenty of instability (MUCAPE of
2000 to 3000 J/kg) and very modest deep shear will support isolated
stronger cells capable of damaging winds and perhaps some hail. PWAT
values over 1.5 inches (approaching 2 inches in some areas) will
ensure heavy rain in stronger storms, and this will present a
localized flash flood threat, especially where heavier rain has
fallen in the last day.

Assuming we retain enough cloud cover from local/regional
convection, temperatures should only climb into the 80s to low-90s
this weekend, with lows in the 60s and 70s. Some slightly drier air
will try to filter in from the north late in the period, but without
a more substantial push of cooler/drier air from the north, not
expecting any noticeable change of air mass for most.

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

A stalled front over southern Arkansas early in the period will move
slowly to the north with time. Surrounding the front, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly during the
afternoon and early evening.

By the end of the period, as one front departs, another front will
be on the doorstep just to the north. The front will make it into
the state by next weekend.

Meanwhile, it appears tropical system Fred will be in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The forecast calls for system to make
landfall in the Florida panhandle toward evening. Fred should remain
well to the east of Arkansas, with no impacts locally.

As far as temperatures, below average readings are expected on
Monday given a front in the state. As the front drifts to the north,
temperatures will return to more seasonal levels as the period
progresses. (46)

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...234

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
414 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
414 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again today and
tonight. Localized flash flooding from heavy downpours and
isolated damaging wind gusts will be the main threats, although
widespread hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

Showers and storms will become more isolated to scattered late
weekend into next week, and generally confined to the afternoon
and evening hours. Any severe weather will be isolated. While
heavy downpours are possible in places, flash flooding should be
localized at most. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at
this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

DTC/46