Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
537 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue across the area. Thunderstorms
are south of the cold front. The south part of the front will be
slow to move out of the state but should do so by 06Z. Showers
will linger behind the front in the south through Monday morning.
In the north, MVFR conditions will become VFR this evening. In
the south, MVFR and IFR conditions will continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 256 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

Active weather will continue today through tonight as a cold front
sweeps across the state. On satellite imagery, a few breaks in cloud
cover were seen over S-Cntrl AR and Ern AR. Elsewhere, skies were
overcast and showers/thunderstorms were moving into the state from
the Srn Plains. Over portions of Wrn AR, between 1 to 2 inches of
rain had already fallen, and with additional heavy rainfall possible
from training of thunderstorms, the likelihood of flash flooding
will increase across the aforementioned area. All this convection
will slide Ewrd during the evening/overnight period. Temperatures
across the CWA have climbed into the mid 70s Cntrl and S to the 60s
across Nrn AR in closer proximity to the warm front. The warm front
was currently located along the AR/MO based on surface observations.

The 18z special sounding from this afternoon indicated ~1900 J/kg of
surface based CAPE and FCST/MU CAPE of ~2000 J/Kg. The wind profile
is nearly unidirectional with height resulting in minimal SRH values
between 0-1 KM of ~100 m2/s2 and 0-3 KM are ~130 m2/s2. Given the
tall skinny profile of CAPE and marginal SRH, overall hail size is
expected be on the smaller side. There is plenty of available bulk
wind shear, ~65 Knots, which will aid in updraft sustainability and
the potential for some rotating updrafts if surface winds can obtain
some low-level backing. PW values are elevated with values near 1.3
inches. Looking aloft, SWrly flow encompasses a thick layer from
H925-H250 promoting convection moving nearly parallel with the slow
moving surface boundary. Heavy rainfall will pose the greatest
threat, with damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes also
possible.

This activity will move across the region tonight with the passage
of a cold front. PoPs will remain over extreme Srn reaches of the
CWA as the front stalls just the S of the CWA. While the apparent
trough swings through with the cold front, a compact upper closed
low is progged to slowly traverse the region on Tuesday. This time
around severe weather is not expected. In fact, a few flakes may fly
across the higher terrain of the Ozarks, however no impacts are
expected at this time. Precip will wind down on Tuesday as the upper
system slides E of the MS River. Dry weather will finish out the
short term.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

The midweek period wl actually be fairly quiet as sfc high pres wl
be in place ovr the Mid-South. Temps wl actually be a bit abv normal
for early March. Warming wl be helped by sloly rising upr heights
ahead of a new upr storm sys working into the SWrn states.

By late in the week, the aforementioned upr lvl storm sys wl be
apchg AR fm the Srn Plains States. Moisture/rain chcs wl gradually
return to much of the FA fm the west on Fri into Sat. Models are
showing this sys weakening to an open wave heading into the weekend,
with overall rain chcs limited. Another lull in the wx pattern is
expected for Sun.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through late tonight FOR Arkansas-Bradley-Calhoun-
Cleveland-Desha-Drew-Jefferson-Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-Prairie-
Woodruff.

&&

Aviation...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
615 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
615 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across central and
southern Arkansas ahead of an advancing cold front. Some strong to
severe storms are possible with damaging wind gusts being the
primary concern. Severe storms will also be capable of producing
hail to one inch in diameter. A brief tornado can not be ruled out.

Heavy rainfall will accompany thunderstorm activity as well with
widespread rain accumulations of one to two inches and localized
heavier amounts. As such, a flooding risk will be prevalent over the
southern half of the state. Even in areas where the rain has
stopped, flooding concerns will continue as the water runs off.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday

Expect scattered showers to continue through Tuesday, with isolated
thunderstorms possible. Rain will once again affect the area late in
the week.

While isolated strong storms could occur in portions of the area,
widespread or organized severe weather is not expected at this time.

Due to heavy rainfall the last few days, as well as high soil
moisture content from snow melt, localized heavy rainfall will
continue to be a concern, especially over central and southern
Arkansas.

Continue to monitor the latest forecasts and statements from your
Arkansas NWS offices.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation may be needed later this afternoon and this
evening.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

232/57/44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
247 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

ARZ023-024-031>033-282130-
White AR-Van Buren AR-Faulkner AR-Conway AR-Cleburne AR-
247 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAN BUREN...SOUTHERN
CLEBURNE...NORTHERN FAULKNER...EAST CENTRAL CONWAY AND WEST CENTRAL
WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CST...

At 247 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mallet Town, or 13 miles north of Conway, moving east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Heber Springs...                  Greenbrier...
Wooster...                        Quitman...
Guy...                            Rose Bud...
Damascus...                       Twin Groves...
Mount Vernon...                   Bethlehem...
Catholic Point...                 Gravel Hill...
Mallet Town...                    Springfield...
Woolly Hollow State Park...       Springhill...
Birdtown...                       Barney...
Sidon...                          Hopewell in Cleburne County...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for central and
north central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3518 9260 3537 9264 3551 9189 3524 9185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 261DEG 36KT 3527 9252

Goudsward

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
713 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

ARZ053-055-062-063-066-010200-
Grant AR-Cleveland AR-Clark AR-Dallas AR-Ouachita AR-
713 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK...SOUTHEASTERN GRANT...DALLAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
OUACHITA COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CST...

At 713 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Sparkman, or 19 miles south of Arkadelphia, moving
east at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fordyce...                        Rison...
Kingsland...                      Sparkman...
Lamont...                         Princeton...
Ouachita...                       Holly Springs...
Vaden...                          Bunn...
Tates Bluff...                    Staves...
Pine Grove...                     Ivan...
Ramsey...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for central,
southeastern and southwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3375 9302 3392 9307 3413 9223 3406 9223
      3406 9221 3387 9215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 256DEG 44KT 3386 9296

Goudsward