Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Little Rock, AR

779 
WWUS54 KLZK 250137
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
837 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

ARC009-089-250215-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0259.000000T0000Z-211025T0215Z/
Marion AR-Boone AR-
837 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION AND NORTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES...

At 837 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Self, or 15
miles south of Forsyth, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Diamond City...                   Lead Hill...
Crumpler Subdivision...           South Lead Hill...
Peel...                           Bull Shoals Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for north central
Arkansas.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9277 3638 9275 3642 9312 3650 9314
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 275DEG 29KT 3647 9304 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

DTC

755 
WWUS54 KLZK 250153
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
853 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

ARC009-089-250215-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0259.000000T0000Z-211025T0215Z/
Marion AR-Boone AR-
853 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION AND NORTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES...

At 853 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Diamond City,
or 13 miles northwest of Bull Shoals, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Diamond City...                   Lead Hill...
South Lead Hill...                Peel...
Bull Shoals Lake...               

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for north central
Arkansas.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3640 9294 3650 9293 3650 9277 3638 9275
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 273DEG 33KT 3647 9280 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

DTC

581 
WWUS54 KLZK 250159
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
859 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

ARC009-089-250209-
/O.CAN.KLZK.SV.W.0259.000000T0000Z-211025T0215Z/
Marion AR-Boone AR-
859 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION AND
NORTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However some hail, gusty 
winds and heavy rain are still possible with other thunderstorms in 
the area.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for north central
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3640 9294 3650 9293 3650 9277 3638 9275
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 275DEG 29KT 3647 9275 

$$

DTC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
556 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.AVIATION...
Updated for 00Z terminals...

Expect sct to nmrs shra/ts tonight along and ahead of a frontal
boundary which will move through the state during the overnight
hours. Ahead of the front and with/ahead of the storms, expect
temporary mvfr or lower restrictions and gusty and erratic
thunderstorm winds. Otherwise, expect decreasing clouds and winds
after the fropa, with vfr conds becoming prevalent by the 15-18Z
time frame Monday, if not sooner.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 244 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday
A strong upper low continues near the Great Lakes with a short wave
moving through the Plains. This short wave will affect Arkansas
tonight and a ridge will develop over the Rockies. The upper ridge
will translate to the Mississippii River for Tuesday.

A cold front in central Oklahoma will continue to move east this
evening and overnight with severe thunderstorms possible. With
the surface low near Kansas City, the higher instability will be
in north Arkansas. Dew points are currently in the low 60s to near
70 degrees. Gustyy southwest winds will continue to bring
moisture into the state. Expect showers and thunderstorms to
develop ahead of the front and eventually become a line of storms.
Damaging winds, large hail and an isolated tornado will be
possible. High pressure and drier air will bring clear skies for
Monday with a breezy northwest wind. Moisture starts to return
Tuesday afternoon with more clouds.

Lows tonight will be in the mid 40s to mid 60s, and low 40s to mid
50s Monday night. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 60s to
lower 80s.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
To begin the period, high pressure will be present over the state
pushing off to our east as the next low pressure system moves into
the Central Plains, then the CWA.

This next system looks to move in Tuesday evening into Wednesday
moving out of the area sometime Thursday night. Right now, there is
some uncertainty on timing with the low as the Euro is slightly
slower, tracks it a little farther south and closes the low off
sooner than the GFS. These differences should get resolved over the
next couple of days once the low becomes more defined out west. What
we know right now...there appears to be some threat for severe,
primarily during the afternoon hours. Exact impacts are still
uncertain as timing and location are major factors in severe weather
impacts. We will continue to monitor this system and will provide
updates as needed.

Overall, temperatures are forecasted to return to normal, even
slightly below average through the long term period. Ahead of the
system coming in Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures might moderate
some just because of southery flow and higher dewpoints. Once that
system clears the area on Thursday, fall like temperatures will
return with dewpoints expected to lower into the 40s and breezy
conditions making it feel cooler.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...57

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Breezy southerly winds will be noted today ahead of an
incoming cold front arriving from the Plains. As the front
approaches Arkansas, thunderstorms are expected to develop.

Scattered thunderstorms will pop up in northwest and north
central sections of the state by late this afternoon. Over time, a
line of storms will evolve, with the line sweeping into the central
counties by midnight. Storms should weaken during the wee hours
of Monday as they head toward the Louisiana border.

Severe weather appears likely in the northern half of the state.
A fast storm movement increases the risk of strong to damaging
winds, and this is the main concern. Winds will also turn with
height, and this suggests that isolated tornadoes may occur. As
storms initiate toward the beginning of the event, they may
produce quarter size hail or larger.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday

The threat for severe weather will decrease Monday as the
aforementioned front moves south of the state. However, another
round of showers and thunderstorms is possible by the middle of the
week.

At this time, while some severe weather may materialize
on Wednesday, it appears that severe storms are most likely along
the central Gulf Coast. Refer to forecasts in the coming days as the
situation becomes more clear.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed Sunday night.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.