Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 532

October 24, 202127 counties in Arkansas; 15 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 24, 2021, 3:47 PM CDT for 27 counties in Arkansas; 15 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 24, 2021, 3:47 PM CDT (20:47 UTC)
Expired
Oct 24, 2021, 11:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 42 counties

Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Izard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Newton County, AR, Perry County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Washington County, AR, Yell County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Wagoner County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

8 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 24, 6:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee, Muskogee44 min
Oct 24, 6:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee, Sequoyah49 min
Oct 24, 8:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Franklin, Sebastian38 min
Oct 24, 8:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBoone, Marion30 min
Oct 24, 8:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Marion53 min
Oct 24, 9:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLogan, Scott35 min
Oct 24, 9:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Fulton40 min
Oct 24, 10:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFulton, Randolph, Sharp44 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 148 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2021-10-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 860 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2021-10-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 225 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
860 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-152 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
737 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
225 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
70 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

868 
WWUS20 KWNS 242045
SEL2  
SPC WW 242045
ARZ000-OKZ000-250400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 532
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northern and western Arkansas
  Eastern Oklahoma

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storm development is expected late this
afternoon along and just ahead of a cold front moving southeastward
across eastern Oklahoma.  The storm environment ahead of the front
appears favorable for a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable
of producing damaging winds and large hail.  The more
rightward-moving supercells may also pose the threat for a few
tornadoes this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles north of Harrison AR to 50
miles south of Poteau OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 531...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28025.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 24, 2:40 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Cleburne, Conway and 26 more95 min
Oct 24, 6:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Conway, Crawford and 18 more97 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2021Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.