Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
308 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday
A strong upper low is just north of the Great Lakes with an upper
ridge over the Plains. An upper trough will move into the Rockies
tonight and this will move through Arkansas Sunday night. An upper
ridge will build across Arkansas Monday.

A cold front will approach Sunday with increasing moisture ahead of
the front. The low level jet will be increasing through the day
Sunday and 1500-2000 MLCAPE is expected. Severe thunderstorms will
be possible late in the afternoon into the night with a focus in
north Arkansas. Rain should exit east Arkansas by 12z Monday, then
high pressure builds over the state.

Lows tonight will be in the 50s and around 50 northwest to upper 60s
southeast. Highs Sunday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s and in
the mid 60s to mid 80s Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
To begin the period, high pressure will be present over the state as
we will be between two upper level lows. One will be off to the east
up in the Great Lakes (came through in short term) and the other
will be off to our west located in the Rockies. The system in the
Rockies will be of interest in the long term.

This next system looks to move in Tuesday evening into Wednesday
moving out of the area sometime Thursday night. Right now, there is
some uncertainty on timing with the low as the Euro is slightly
slower and tracks it a little farther south of the GFS. These
differences should get resolved over the next couple of days once
the low becomes more defined out west. What we know right
now...there appears to be some threat for severe, primarily during
the afternoon hours. Exact impacts are still uncertain as timing and
location are major factors in severe weather impacts. We will
continue to monitor this system and will provide updates as needed.

Overall, temperatures are forecasted to be fairly mild through the
first half of the long term period due southerly flow and increased
dewpoints. Temperatures will then return to normal for this time of
the year for the second half of the period. High temperatures will
remain in the upper 60s and 70s across much of the state dropping
into the upper 50s to upper 60s after the system pushes out
Thursday. Lows will remain in the 50s and 60s to begin the period,
dropping into the 40s late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     65  82  58  71 /  10  40  90   0
Camden AR         65  83  65  81 /  10  30  50  10
Harrison AR       64  79  51  65 /  10  70  70   0
Hot Springs AR    66  83  61  79 /  10  50  80   0
Little Rock   AR  67  83  63  77 /  10  40  80  10
Monticello AR     67  86  68  83 /  10  20  50  20
Mount Ida AR      65  83  59  78 /  10  50  70   0
Mountain Home AR  63  81  52  66 /  10  70  80   0
Newport AR        66  83  61  72 /  10  30  90  10
Pine Bluff AR     67  85  66  80 /  10  30  70  10
Russellville AR   66  84  58  77 /  10  60  80   0
Searcy AR         65  83  61  75 /  10  40  90  10
Stuttgart AR      67  85  66  78 /  10  30  80  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...51 / Long Term...233

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-
Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-
Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder will be
possible in areas close to the Arkansas and Missouri border today.
Otherwise, mostly dry conditions will be noted, with breezy
southerly winds bringing above average temperatures and
increasing moisture.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

A storm system will move into the region late this weekend, and
bring the potential for widespread rain and thunderstorms. At this
time, severe weather appears most likely late Sunday night into
early Monday morning. All severe hazards will be possible including
damaging winds and hail, and a potential of isolated tornadoes. The
threat for severe weather will decrease after sunrise Monday
morning.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible by the middle of the
week, with strong to severe storms possible on Wednesday. However,
there is a lot of uncertainty this far out in time, so refer to the
latest forecasts in the coming days as the situation becomes more
clear.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed Sunday night.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.