Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Little Rock, AR

867 
WWUS54 KLZK 232011
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
311 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

ARC005-089-232030-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0256.000000T0000Z-211023T2030Z/
Marion AR-Baxter AR-
311 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MARION AND BAXTER COUNTIES...

At 310 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Gainesville to near Arkawana to near Ozark Isle,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain Home...                  Bull Shoals...
Gassville...                      Flippin...
Lakeview in Baxter County...      Norfork...
Salesville...                     Briarcliff...
Arkawana...                       Norfork Dam...
Diamond Bay...                    Ozark Regional Airport...
Gamaliel Landing...               Ozark Isle...
Fawn Park...                      Bull Shoals State Park...
Shipp...                          Colfax...
Advance...                        Cartney...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3645 9215 3627 9218 3614 9240 3648 9286
      3650 9286 3650 9225
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 270DEG 35KT 3655 9241 3648 9247 3644 9260 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1249 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to move across southern
Missouri near the state line. A few showers could move into the
HRO and BPK areas this afternoon with MVFR conditions. This
system will move east of Arkansas by this evening. Southerly winds
will increase overnight and become gusty in some locations. This
will bring more moisture into the state and rising dew points
tonight and Sunday. Expect low clouds to develop in the morning
with MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 640 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021)
AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. There will be mainly
mid/high clouds across the region, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the northern one to two rows of counties. Rain will
be more widespread in southern Missouri. Precipitation will be along
and north of a warm front advancing into the area from the Gulf
Coast. Breezy south winds at 8 to 14 mph will be noted today. Gusts
from 16 to 22 mph will occur in places. Gusty conditions will
continue in parts of the Ozark Mountains tonight. (46)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

The period will begin with a warm front lifting northward through
the region today. Along/north of the front, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be noted in far northern Arkansas,
with more widespread precipitation in southern Missouri. Rain
chances will be highest this morning, with coverage/intensity
diminishing as the afternoon progresses.

Behind the front, an airmass change will occur, and it will feel
a whole lot more like spring. Breezy southerly winds will bring
increasing moisture /dewpoints in the 60s/, along with well above
average temperatures. There will be a precipitation lull Saturday
night into Sunday morning, but that will not last long.

A robust shortwave will track from the central Plains into the
mid-Mississippi Valley Sunday night. At the surface, a fairly
potent storm system will be over northern Missouri Sunday evening,
with a cold front set to plow into Arkansas. It will be plenty
unstable ahead of the front, with MUCAPE values from 1500 to 2500
J/kg in northwest, north central, and west central sections of
the state. As far as shear, 0-1km helicity values between 250 and
350 m2/s2 are expected. Given these parameters, a line of
strong/severe thunderstorms appears likely, and will have embedded
supercells. Damaging winds/isolated tornadoes will be the main
concerns.

As Sunday night wears on, there should be an overall weakening
in the expected line of storms as it tracks into the southeast
half of the state.

While the heaviest rain with this event will be north/east of the
surface low from northern Missouri to northern Ohio, half inch to
inch and a half amounts are in the forecast locally. A few spots
could receive over two inches, which seems reasonable given PWAT
values over 1.50 inches.

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

Convection will be ending from NW to SE at the start of the long
term period as a cold front moves SE through the SE half of the
state Mon morning. This front will drop south of the state by Mon
night...but will lift back north Tue night into Wed as a warm front
as a new upper shortwave trough exits the Rockies into the Plains on
Wed. Expect POPs to increase Tue night as the warm front lifts
north...though best POPs will be on Wed into Wed evening as a new
cold front surges east through the state.

Expect POPs to then decrease some by Thu into early Fri as the front
moves well east of AR. However...the upper shortwave will deepen
into a closed low and slow over the mid-MS River Valley region Thu
into Fri...with some additional SHRA possible as moisture wraps
around this upper low. By Fri into Fri night...expect dry conditions
to return as the upper low shifts further east of the region...and
drier more stable air moves into the state to wrap up the forecast.

There looks to be another shot for seeing some strong to SVR storms
this coming week...most likely on Wed as an upper trough axis swings
east/NE across AR. Current data suggests the timing of Wed daylight
hrs to be more conducive for strong to SVR storms...with forecast
SHR and instability to be ample enough for some SVR storms. As one
would expect however...differences in timing and overall location of
SFC features and other details do exist this far out in time. As a
result...the exact threat for SVR Wx looks uncertain at this time.
Will need to refer to the latest forecasts in the coming days as
these details become more clear.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-
Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-
Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder will be
possible in areas close to the Arkansas and Missouri border today.
Otherwise, mostly dry conditions will be noted, with breezy
southerly winds bringing above average temperatures and
increasing moisture.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

A storm system will move into the region late this weekend, and
bring the potential for widespread rain and thunderstorms. At this
time, severe weather appears most likely late Sunday night into
early Monday morning. All severe hazards will be possible including
damaging winds and hail, and a potential of isolated tornadoes. The
threat for severe weather will decrease after sunrise Monday
morning.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible by the middle of the
week, with strong to severe storms possible on Wednesday. However,
there is a lot of uncertainty this far out in time, so refer to the
latest forecasts in the coming days as the situation becomes more
clear.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed Sunday night.

&&

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