River Flood Warning 212, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1238 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.AVIATION...
A stalled front is across north Louisiana. All sites are dry at
this time but a few showers could affect LLQ during the day. Most
clouds will be across the central and south sections. Patchy fog
will bring MVFR conditions, otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1020 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021)
AVIATION...
Other than some mid/high clouds, mostly VFR conditions are expected
overnight and into Friday. Some patchy fog may occur in places
toward dawn Friday, creating brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Winds will
be north to northeast at 4 to 8 mph. (46)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday
Latest data from local radars indicate widely scattered, light
showers across central and southern portions of the forecast area,
moving to the east. A slow moving cold front was subjectively
analyzed at 19z from near Pine Bluff, to near De Queen.

The front is expected to stall just south of the forecast area
tonight. This feature will be a focus for additional activity
overnight.  Some of this activity may be able to affect southern
sections of the forecast area, as the convection moves eastward.

The front will move north as a front late in this period.  Some
convective activity will be associated as this feature moves
northward.  More widespread precipitation is expected early in the
next forecast period.

LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Long term PD wl begin w/ slightly perturbed zonal H500 flow
extending across the CONUS, w/ a quasi-cutoff low positioned over
TX. At the sfc, broad region of sfc anticyclonic flow wl extend
over the Ern US/Appalachia, w/ cyclonic flow centered over the
Frnt Rng. As such, the resulting pres grad wl keep Srly winds in
place across the FA on Sun. Antecedent low-lvl moisture
characterized by Td's in the low 60s, and H1000-H500 RH >80% co-
located w/ increasing WAA/isentropic ascent wl allow for Chc PoPs
on Sun for much of the region, w/ some localized thunder possible
as well. QPF through Mon morning could become locally problematic,
w/ the latest deterministic guidance suggesting greater rainfall
totals possible over the Srn half of the state, w/ 1 to 1.5 inches
progged.

Attn wl turn to the Mon/Tues timeframe w/ potential for more
scattered thunderstorm activity. The aforementioned upper cutoff low
wl quickly be ingested back into the mean flow and pivot N/wrd, w/
another larger perturbation expected to dig S/wrd into the Four
Corners out of the Pac/NW late Sun night. Overall rain chances
remain more limited on Mon as forcing mechanisms wl not be in place
despite sufficient moisture and buoyancy. PoP/Tstorm activity is
expected to increase in coverage and magnitude later Mon night into
Tues as the upper wave overspreads the region atop a more disheveled
region of cyclonic sfc flow...a sfc bndry wl lkly be in place across
the N/Wrn portion of the state, extending from the S/W to the N/E.
Increasing sfc convergence could support more widespread PoP
coverage later into Tues afternoon, w/ ML buoyancy progs of ~2000
J/kg over much of the state. Currently, it looks the cooler side of
the aforementioned bndry wl win out, and advance S/wrd as a cold
frnt through the state, driving another rnd of vigorous rain/Tstorm
chances. QPF once again becomes the primary concern w/ this event
and could become problematic for previously worked over areas from
the week prior, where localized flash flooding could occur. Overall,
a severe Tstorm threat remains limited across the FA for now w/ SPC
D4/D5 risk areas splitting the Natural State.

Following the FROPA Tues night, Wed wl be characterized by more
settled conditions as N/Erly winds keep slightly cooler air in
place. Through the PD, seasonable condns can be expected, w/ warmer
readings lkly on Mon afternoon across the FA.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1030 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
1030 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Rivers are elevated across much of Arkansas following heavy to
excessive rain Wednesday into Thursday. Minor to moderate flooding
is occurring or expected along portions of the Arkansas, Black,
Cache, Eleven Point, Ouachita, Spring, and lower White Rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are in the forecast this weekend through the
middle of next week. At this time, it appears that severe
weather will be spotty. However, there will be heavy rain,
especially over southern and eastern sections of the state.
Several inches of rain could occur, and this may cause
additional flash flooding and aggravate existing flood
issues along area rivers.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.

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