Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
633 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Slow moving upper level low over Texas will bring periods of
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the terminals through the
period. Coverage will be fairly light this morning but will
become more widespread as the forecast period progresses with a
decrease in coverage after dark. Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions
are expected through the period with some lower end VFR
conditions possible Sunday afternoon and night. Winds will
generally be be light and from the south to southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 316 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021)
Short Term...Today through Monday night

Overall the forecast remains pretty much unchanged versus
previous packages as pattern will be dominated by a slow moving,
cut off upper low that will take several days to clear the region.
Latest observations/remote imagery places this feature near the
Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex with generally light precipitation
over the state.

CAMS guidance, especially the HRRR, seems to have initialized well
this morning and will generally follow its lead. While POPS will be
on the higher side through the period, spatial distribution and the
timing of the precipitation will be challenging to nail down in this
type of environment and a broad brush approach will be used.

As mentioned previously, upper low is centered near DFW and progged
to slowly lift to the E/NE today. In fact, system will only make it
into western MO by Monday afternoon as nothing is really seen to
kick it out in the immediate future.

Precipitation coverage will be generally scattered in nature this
morning and becoming more widespread during the afternoon with
diurnal heating before decreasing once again during the overnight
hours.

Isolated pockets of heavy rain will be possible with any slow moving
thunderstorm and PWAT values close to 2 inches. Overall widespread
flash flooding is not expected. A lack of forcing and wind shear
will limit most storms to below severe thresholds. Brief gusty winds
should be the main concern.

Precip should be more widespread Monday and into Monday evening
aided by an upper impulse and a surge of gulf moisture. The highest
QPF is expected to be over the south and central parts of the state
with up to two inches but anywhere in the CWA could see locally
heavy rain due to the overall environment. Temperatures will reach
the mid 70s to mid 80s across the CWA today with slightly warmer
conditions for Monday.

Long term...Tuesday through Saturday

The long term fcst cont to advertise unsettled, wet conditions
through the early portion of the PD, w/ a downward trend in PoPs
beginning to emerge in guidance. Wrn Atlantic sfc high pressure
remains one of the dominant features, locking in a fetch of Srly sfc
flow over the Srn Cntrl US. Additionally, a steep sfc pres grad wl
further be conducive for prevailing Srlies through the term.
Antecedent column moisture is already expected to be very plentiful,
w/ sfc Td's in the upper 60s to low 70s around the FA Tues, and
H1000-H500 RH values on the order of the 70th to 80th percentile.

While the polar jet remains further north over the US/Canada border,
model guidance is indicative of a large lobe approaching the Wrn
coast, setting up an amplified flow pattern and Cntrl US upper
anticyclonic flow. The caveat wl be on the equatorward side of this
upper ridge, a weak, quasi-stationary cyclonic perturbation wl be
meandering over the Srn Cntrl US. Weaker synoptic forcing/steering
flow and plentiful tropospheric moisture remains a conducive pattern
for scattered to widespread rain chances w/ ocsnl thunder. While QPF
guidance remains modest during the extended term, increasing soil
saturation from more aggressive QPF in the short term could pose a
hazard for localized flash flooding w/ persisting PoPs, particularly
invof the greatest antecedent rainfall accumulations.

Through the coming week, the aforementioned weak cyclonic
perturbation wl be pushed to the east, and the Wrn US trof wl pivot
N/E through mean S/Wrly flow, becoming more robust and increasing in
phase speed. Overall, mean troughing looks to remain over the Wrn US
coast, and Cntrl US ridging/anticyclonic flow wl become more
established.

Near the end of next week, greater large scale subsidence wl begin
to taper off the magnitude and coverage of PoPs, w/ a diurnal
rain/tstorm pattern settling over the FA. W/ more robust H500
ridging/subsidence, high temps wl be on the rise and approaching
more seasonable values for early June in AR...yeah, we're not
excited about it either....

By the end of the PD, long range guidance is progging sfc high
pressure to sag S/wrd through the Nrn Plains and approach the Srn
Cntrl US by next weekend. While over a week out, some modest
agreement is prevalent b/w the 00Z GFS/ECMWF solns on the placement
of a weak cold frnt. While over a week out, the feature certainly
bears watching in successive fcst runs, mostly for a shot at some
temperature relief before the onset of a persistent summer pattern.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...56

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
320 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
320 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through the period with the best chances for seeing
thunderstorms during the afternoon through early evening hours.

Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible which may lead to an
isolated flash flood threat. The overall threat for seeing severe
weather will remain low but an isolated strong storm can not be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday

Through the early portion of the forecast period, daily chances
for showers and some thunderstorms will prevail under a nearly
stationary upper level storm system. Rainfall accumulations around
the region through the end of next week could approach two to
four inches, with the greatest accumulations likely over the
southern and southwestern portions of the state. Persistent
rainfall could lead to increasing soil saturation/runoff, and
contribute to isolated flash flooding, particularly through Monday
and Tuesday. At this time...the threat of organized severe
weather remains low through the forecast period.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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