Small Craft Advisory 38, NWS Baltimore/Washington

950 
WHUS71 KLWX 130544
MWWLWX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1244 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

ANZ542-131345-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-210214T1100Z/
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
1244 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.

* WHERE...Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ533-534-543-131345-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-210214T1100Z/
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
1244 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

* WHERE...Chesapeake Bay from North Beach MD to Smith Point VA, 
  and Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding 
  Bloodsworth Island.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ537-131345-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-210214T1100Z/
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
1244 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

* WHERE...Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ531-539-131345-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0035.210213T1100Z-210214T0500Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-
1244 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING
TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Northeast winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt 
  expected.

* WHERE...Chester River to Queenstown MD and Chesapeake Bay from 
  Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ532-541-131345-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0035.210213T1100Z-210214T1100Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
1244 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt expected.

* WHERE...Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank 
  River and Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ540-131345-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0038.210213T1100Z-210214T1100Z/
Eastern Bay-
1244 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Bay.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ538-131345-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0035.210213T1700Z-210213T2300Z/
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
1244 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt 
  expected.

* WHERE...Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor.

* WHEN...From noon today to 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

841 
WHUS71 KLWX 131338
MWWLWX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
838 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

ANZ531-539-132145-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-210214T0500Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-
838 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.

* WHERE...Chester River to Queenstown MD and Chesapeake Bay from 
  Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ540-542-132145-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-210214T1100Z/
Eastern Bay-Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
838 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.

* WHERE...Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD and Eastern Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ532>534-541-543-132145-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-210214T1100Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
838 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

* WHERE...Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point MD to Smith Point VA, 
  Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth 
  Island, and Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little 
  Choptank River.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ537-132145-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-210214T1100Z/
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
838 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

* WHERE...Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ538-132145-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0035.210213T1700Z-210213T2300Z/
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
838 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt 
  expected.

* WHERE...Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor.

* WHEN...From noon today to 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

DHOF

868 
WHUS71 KLWX 132107
MWWLWX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
407 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

ANZ531-539-140500-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-210214T0500Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-
407 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.

* WHERE...Chester River to Queenstown MD and Chesapeake Bay from 
  Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ538-132300-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-210213T2300Z/
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
407 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt 
  expected.

* WHERE...Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor.

* WHEN...From noon today to 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ540-542-140515-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-210214T1100Z/
Eastern Bay-Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
407 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.

* WHERE...Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD and Eastern Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ532>534-541-543-140515-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-210214T1100Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
407 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

* WHERE...Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point MD to Smith Point VA, 
  Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth 
  Island, and Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little 
  Choptank River.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ537-140515-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-210214T1100Z/
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
407 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

* WHERE...Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

933 
WHUS71 KLWX 132355
MWWLWX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
655 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

ANZ531-539-140500-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-210214T0500Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-
655 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.

* WHERE...Chester River to Queenstown MD and Chesapeake Bay from 
  Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ540-542-140800-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-210214T1100Z/
Eastern Bay-Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
655 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.

* WHERE...Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD and Eastern Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ532>534-541-543-140800-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-210214T1100Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
655 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

* WHERE...Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point MD to Smith Point VA, 
  Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth 
  Island, and Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little 
  Choptank River.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ537-140800-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-210214T1100Z/
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
655 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

* WHERE...Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

510 
WHUS71 KLWX 140214
MWWLWX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
914 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

ANZ531-539-140315-
/O.CAN.KLWX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-210214T0500Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-
914 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished to below criteria.

$$

ANZ532>534-541-543-140315-
/O.CAN.KLWX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-210214T1100Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
914 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished to below criteria.

$$

ANZ540-542-140315-
/O.CAN.KLWX.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-210214T1100Z/
Eastern Bay-Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
914 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished to below criteria.

$$

ANZ537-140315-
/O.CAN.KLWX.SC.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-210214T1100Z/
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
914 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished to below criteria.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
333 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
There are multiple threats for wintry precipitation across the
area over the next week as Arctic high pressure remains
entrenched to our northwest and waves of low pressure ride up
the coast from the Deep South.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Cloudy and cold is the theme across the region presently. High
pressure of Arctic origin remains anchored to our northwest,
supplying reinforcing shots of cold, dry air.

Another wave of low pressure developing off the southeast coast
will move northeastward just offshore in southwesterly flow
aloft. This flow will drive warm air overtop the near-surface
cold layer, setting the stage for in an icy mix of
precipitation. Though most of the region will likely remain dry
overnight, some patchy flurries or freezing drizzle is possible
especially south of I-66/US-50 during the pre-dawn hours.
Although confidence in precip coverage/occurrence prior to
daybreak was not high enough to warrant and advisories or
warnings, anything that falls will stick/freeze given
temperatures in the 20s. Even a light amount of ice can result
in very dangerous travel conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned wave of low pressure will move northeastward
just off the coast Saturday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft
will increase lift via moisture advection, aided up RRQ jet
dynamics. This is expected to result in a prolonged period of
steady, light precipitation. With the warm air aloft,
precipitation will likely fall as mostly liquid, but then freeze
on contact (freezing rain) due to surface temperatures below
freezing. The 12z HREF was the lowest in terms of QPF amounts,
with a notable upward trend in the remaining guidance. Hard to
ignore the trend, so confidence has increased to the point where
warning-level (a quarter inch) freezing rain is expected roughly
from the central Virginia Blue Ridge east-northeastward across
the central Virginia Piedmont to southern Maryland. A Winter
Storm Warning is in effect where a mix with sleet is
anticipated, with an Ice Storm Warning where nearly all freezing
rain is most likely. Advisories flank the warnings to the
northwest for freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet at times.
There is lower confidence (and later timing) even further
northwest over the remained of northern MD, NW VA, and E WV. If
the more robust 12z guidance ends up being correct, more
significant icing would be possible further north and west into
the metros, and that will be evaluated as we draw closer to the
event tonight.

Precipitation exit time is also in question, with most guidance
suggesting light freezing rain/freezing drizzle persisting
through Saturday night, perhaps mixed with sleet at times. The
12z ECMWF is the outlier and dries things out Saturday evening.

Yet another weak wave of low pressure is slated to pass the area
Sunday. A light wintry mix is possible mainly NW of the metros,
though cold air damming can overperform, which may result in a
more expansive mix as opposed to plain rain at times Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Multiple rounds of potential winter impacts will push through the
area throughout the work-week. We'll finish out the weekend with
below freezing temperatures during the morning hours with areas of
freezing rain still lingering from the frontal system that is
passing through. By late morning/early afternoon, we should warm up
above freezing for most areas east of the Allegheny Front, leading
to chance PoPs for rain to succeed the freezing rain potential
briefly. We'll get a quick lull in the action before our next round
of potential winter weather occurs Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
With near or below freezing surface temps and warm air advection
aloft in place, expect mixed precipitation to be present during this
timeframe. Could see a mostly rain event for southern MD and extreme
SE portions of our CWA in VA with temps being 5-7 degrees above
freezing.

We'll have another lull in the action Tuesday night into Wednesday,
while still remaining heavily under a dense cloud deck (atypical
pattern for this area for such a long duration). We'll see a low
track up from the south and move into our area by Wednesday night-
early Thursday. All in all, slight winter storm threat for each of
these periods of time with confidence increasing with each model
run. Mixed p-types for each round likely given the synoptic and
thermal setups. Visit weather.gov/lwx/winter for our latest winter
weather guidance and forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR conditions are prevailing as of mid afternoon with IFR
expected to return tonight between 23z-04z. Freezing rain,
possibly mixed with sleet, is expected to affect most terminals
Saturday into Saturday night with a NE wind and continued IFR
conditions. Significant icing is possible near KDCA to KBWI/KMTN.

Another round of precipitation is possible Sunday, though
temperatures may warm some by then. Either way, sub-VFR likely
lingers through the end of the weekend.

MVFR/IFR possible Monday into Tuesday with light winter
precipitation possible across most terminals, especially further
south and west.

&&

.MARINE...
NE wind gusts to around 20 kt are expected to persist through
Saturday across the middle portion of the Chesapeake Bay and
lower tidal Potomac River as low pressure passes to the south
and east and high pressure lingers to the northwest. These gusts
may persist through the remainder of the weekend, but confidence
decreases beyond Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, a wintry mix is
anticipated Saturday into Saturday night, reducing visibility
and leading to some icing.

SCAs possible Monday/Tuesday given the low pressure passing
through and tighter gradients.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for DCZ001.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for MDZ008-011-013-014-018-503>506-508.
     Ice Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     MDZ016-017.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for VAZ025-026-029-038>040-051>054-501>507.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     VAZ036-037-508.
     Ice Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     VAZ050-055>057.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for WVZ505-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ534-537-
     543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...ADM
AVIATION...DHOF/ADM
MARINE...DHOF/ADM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
316 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ052>057-132030-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
316 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

An Ice Storm Warning is in effect from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM
Sunday for Stafford, Spotsylvania, King George, Charles and St.
Mary's Counties. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 AM
Saturday to 7 AM Sunday for the rest of the outlook area.

There is a slight winter storm threat for Monday into Tuesday,
Tuesday into Wednesday and then again on Thursday. If these
threats materialize, they may cause travel disruptions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report winter weather via standard
operating procedures.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
WVZ050>053-055-132030-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
316 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

An Ice Storm Warning is in effect for Orange County, and a Winter
Storm Warning is in effect for Albemarle and Nelson Counties and
the central Virginia Blue Ridge from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM
Sunday for much of central and northern Virginia and central
Maryland.

A light wintry mix is possible Saturday late afternoon and night
over the remainder of northwestern Virginia, northern Maryland,
and eastern West Virginia.

There is a slight winter storm threat for Monday into Tuesday,
Tuesday into Wednesday and then again on Thursday. If these
threats materialize, they may cause travel disruptions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report winter weather via standard
operating procedures.

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-132030-
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
316 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM
Sunday for Pendleton and Highland Counties.

A light wintry mix is possible Saturday late afternoon and night
over the remainder of the outlook area.

There is a slight winter storm threat for Monday into Tuesday,
Tuesday into Wednesday and then again on Thursday. If these
threats materialize, they may cause travel disruptions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report winter weather via standard
operating procedures.

DHOF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
142 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     SNOW             SPERRYVILLE             38.66N  78.23W
02/12/2021  M0.8 INCH        RAPPAHANNOCK       VA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 S VIENNA              38.89N  77.26W
02/12/2021  M0.1 INCH        FAIRFAX            VA   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 NW FALLING WATERS     39.59N  77.92W
02/12/2021  M0.1 INCH        BERKELEY           WV   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             5 SW STAUNTON           38.10N  79.12W
02/12/2021  M3.3 INCH        AUGUSTA            VA   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 NNW VERONA            38.25N  79.02W
02/12/2021  M4.0 INCH        AUGUSTA            VA   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 SW FREDERICKSBURG     38.28N  77.53W
02/12/2021  M5.0 INCH        SPOTSYLVANIA       VA   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 E KINGSVILLE          39.45N  76.39W
02/12/2021  M0.2 INCH        BALTIMORE          MD   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 SSW FORT WASHINGTON   38.72N  77.01W
02/12/2021  M0.3 INCH        PRINCE GEORGES     MD   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             4 ENE CHARLOTTE HALL    38.49N  76.72W
02/12/2021  M2.3 INCH        ST. MARYS          MD   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             4 NNW HAGERSTOWN        39.69N  77.75W
02/12/2021  M0.2 INCH        WASHINGTON         MD   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             5 NE MECHANICSVILLE     38.49N  76.73W
02/12/2021  M2.3 INCH        ST. MARYS          MD   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 NW HARRISONBURG       38.44N  78.89W
02/12/2021  M1.5 INCH        CITY OF HARRISONBU VA   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 N ODENTON             39.08N  76.69W
02/12/2021  M0.1 INCH        ANNE ARUNDEL       MD   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 SSE CRESAPTOWN-BEL AI 39.58N  78.85W
02/12/2021  M0.5 INCH        ALLEGANY           MD   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             6 SE LA PLATA           38.47N  76.91W
02/12/2021  M3.0 INCH        CHARLES            MD   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0730 AM     SNOW             2 WNW WAYNESBORO        38.07N  78.93W
02/12/2021  M4.0 INCH        CITY OF WAYNESBORO VA   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             STAUNTON WATER PLANT    38.17N  79.08W
02/12/2021  M2.4 INCH        CITY OF STAUNTON   VA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             5 SSE MCHENRY           39.49N  79.32W
02/12/2021  M0.1 INCH        GARRETT            MD   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             6 SSE LEXINGTON PARK    38.18N  76.41W
02/12/2021  M4.5 INCH        ST. MARYS          MD   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 NNW HARRISONBURG      38.47N  78.88W
02/12/2021  M1.5 INCH        CITY OF HARRISONBU VA   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 SSE REVA              38.48N  78.12W
02/12/2021  M1.5 INCH        CULPEPER           VA   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 E CHURCHVILLE         38.23N  79.12W
02/12/2021  M3.9 INCH        AUGUSTA            VA   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0900 AM     SNOW             1 NNE LAUREL            39.11N  76.85W
02/12/2021  M0.2 INCH        HOWARD             MD   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0900 AM     SNOW             1 SSE NEWCOMB HALL      38.02N  78.50W
02/12/2021  M5.0 INCH        ALBEMARLE          VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM     SNOW             1 SW DENTSVILLE         38.47N  76.91W
02/12/2021  M3.0 INCH        CHARLES            MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM     SNOW             4 WSW STAUNTON          38.14N  79.12W
02/12/2021  M5.3 INCH        AUGUSTA            VA   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0935 AM     SNOW             1 ENE SPOTSYLVANIA COUR 38.20N  77.58W
02/12/2021  M5.5 INCH        SPOTSYLVANIA       VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0945 AM     SNOW             1 NE KING GEORGE        38.28N  77.17W
02/12/2021  M5.5 INCH        KING GEORGE        VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0945 AM     SNOW             3 SE CHANCELLORSVILLE   38.27N  77.59W
02/12/2021  M5.0 INCH        SPOTSYLVANIA       VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 AM     SNOW             1 ESE BROOKE            38.38N  77.36W
02/12/2021  M3.4 INCH        STAFFORD           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 AM     SNOW             1 NW STUARTS DRAFT      38.04N  79.04W
02/12/2021  M4.0 INCH        AUGUSTA            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1030 AM     SNOW             3 W CALIFORNIA          38.30N  76.55W
02/12/2021  M4.5 INCH        ST. MARYS          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

1215 PM     SNOW             4 ESE NELLYSFORD        37.86N  78.81W
02/12/2021  M2.8 INCH        NELSON             VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2102364
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102365
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102366
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102367
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102368
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102369
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102370
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102371
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102372
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102373
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102374
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102375
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102376
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102377
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102378
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102379
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102380
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102381
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102382
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102383
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102384
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102385
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102386
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102387
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102388
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102389
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102390
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102391
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102392
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102393
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102394
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102395
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102396

KJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     SNOW             2 NNE BARBOURSVILLE     38.19N  78.27W
02/12/2021  M6.0 INCH        ORANGE             VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2102397

CPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     SNOW             2 NW CARDOVA            38.55N  78.07W
02/12/2021  M0.8 INCH        CULPEPER           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 AM     SNOW             1 NNE HARRISONBURG      38.45N  78.87W
02/12/2021  M0.1 INCH        CITY OF HARRISONBU VA   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0115 PM     SNOW             2 E EDINBURG            38.82N  78.53W
02/12/2021  M0.2 INCH        SHENANDOAH         VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2102398
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102399
EVENT NUMBER LWX2102400

SMZ