Small Craft Advisory 191, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
944 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front associated with an area of low pressure
over the Great Lakes will continue to push through the region
this morning through this afternoon, resulting in periods of
heavy rainfall, gusty showers, and embedded thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to build into the region
as dry weather returns Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Large upper level low continues to retrograde over the Great
Lakes as an associated cold front continues to push through the
region this morning. Latest radar imagery shows the last batch
of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms beginning to exit
off into eastern MD. Latest hi-res guidance in conjunction with
the latest obs shows this final band completely clearing the
region within the next hour or so. Latest satellite imagery
shows rapid clearing behind the front with some upslope clouds
across the Alleghenies as a strong W/NW flow ensues.

Numerous Flood Warnings continue across the CWA currently.
However with drying conditions continuing throughout the
remainder of the day, don't anticipate any additional flooding
issues. Will likely be dropping the Flash Flood Watch for the
Baltimore and DC metro areas in the next few hours once the
heavy rain has completely exited the area.

Cooler and drier conditions are expected today through this
weekend with high temperatures this afternoon in the low 70s for
most with some mid 50s across the higher terrain. Lows tonight
will drop down into the mid 40s for most, slightly warmer across
the metros.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Dry and seasonably cool on Friday with highs in the low to mid 70s
as high pressure builds towards the region. This will continue into
Friday night as well, with temps even a touch cooler than Thursday
night.

Temps start to moderate a bit on Saturday as high pressure sets of
to our southwest. Temperatures won't increase much, with highs
closer to the mid 70s. With winds out of the southwest, temps
overnight will trend upwards as well, increasing a few degrees
compared to previous nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will dominate over the region early next week with
near or slightly below normal temperatures and dry conditions.
Temperatures will moderate Tuesday as the aforementioned high shifts
offshore and winds turning a touch more southerly. Tuesday will also
feature our next chance of precipitation as a weak cold front drops
southward toward the region. Latest guidance depicts scant moisture
with this front, so will maintain low end chance POPs in the
forecast for now. Cooler conditions return toward the middle of next
behind the front as Canadian high pressure builds to our north.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The last batch of showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to
exit eastward. Latest radar imagery shows some partial clearing
over BWI with the heaviest of the rain just east of MTN.

Elsewhere, conditions are either or quickly becoming VFR as the
winds shift to the N/NW. VFR conditions are expected to
continue through early next week as high pressure remains in
control.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warnings continue through the early afternoon for the
lower Tidal Potomac and the Chesapeake Bay. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for the upper and middle Tidal
Potomac. As a strong cold front continues to track eastward,
gusty showers and thunderstorms are likely where the issuance of
SMWs may be required, and even the potential for an isolated
waterspout.

Northerly winds are expected to develop after the front moves
through the region by Thursday afternoon and persist into Friday.
Additional SCA was issued to cover this threat starting late
tonight. SCA gusts possible in S channeling ahead of a front
Sat PM before becoming NW with SCA gusts possible thru Sun.

Borderline SCA conditions possible Sunday under a westerly wind
regime as high pressure builds mainly south of the waters. The
gradient will relax Sunday night into Monday with continued light
westerly breezes.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies continue to run high thanks to strong onshore winds
ahead of an approaching cold front. As a result, minor to moderate
tidal flooding is occurring or forecast this morning at all tidal
locations. Confidence in additional tidal flooding with subsequent
high tide cycles this afternoon and evening decreases as winds will
turn offshore as the front slowly crosses the area today. Additional
updates to the forecast will certainly be needed later this morning
as the timing of the front and wind shift becomes clearer, allowing
anomalies to back off.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001.
     Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT today for DCZ001.
MD...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ005-006-
     008-011-503>508.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ011.
     Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT today for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ508.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ053-054-
     506.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-
     536.
     Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ535.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ530>533-
     538>542.
     Gale Warning until noon EDT today for ANZ530>534-537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ534-537-543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CJL/SOUZA
NEAR TERM...SOUZA
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...SOUZA
MARINE...BKF/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF

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