Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Baltimore/Washington

144 
WWUS51 KLWX 042059
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
459 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

VAC137-177-042130-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-210504T2130Z/
Orange VA-Spotsylvania VA-
459 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN ORANGE AND WESTERN SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES...

At 458 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 12 miles southeast of Culpeper to 8 miles north of
Mineral, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to 
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage 
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed 
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured 
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Mine Run, Rhoadesville, Parker, Verdiersville, Burr Hill, Locust
Grove, Gold Dale, Thornhill, Logan, Lahore, Glenora, Lake Of The
Woods and Unionville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3814 7801 3834 7795 3836 7769 3807 7777
      3808 7781 3811 7784 3810 7784 3812 7791
      3812 7798 3814 7800
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 257DEG 34KT 3833 7786 3813 7790 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ADS

341 
WWUS51 KLWX 042118
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
518 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

VAC137-177-042128-
/O.CAN.KLWX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-210504T2130Z/
Orange VA-Spotsylvania VA-
518 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN ORANGE AND WESTERN
SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central Virginia.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Sterling Virginia.

LAT...LON 3814 7801 3834 7795 3836 7769 3807 7777
      3808 7781 3811 7784 3810 7784 3812 7791
      3812 7798 3814 7800
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 264DEG 23KT 3834 7771 3814 7775 

$$

ADS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
310 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass just to the north of the region tonight.
A second low pressure will pass north of the area on Wednesday,
dragging a cold front across the area. High pressure will build
in from Canada Thursday before another low pressure crosses the
region Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms, some severe with lightning
and large hail, are moving east across the Northern and Central
Shenandoah Valleys. The most intense of thunderstorms are over
southern Shenandoah County and moving into Page County. Large
hail and damaging winds are likely with these storms. Additional
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected through the
remainder of the afternoon into the middle part of this evening.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 8pm this
evening for all zones, except for Garrett, Allegany, and Mineral
Counties, as these zones have been drained of the greatest
instability. Similar threats of wind and hail are anticipated
with these thunderstorms with temperatures in the lower to
middle 80s and dewpoint temperatures in the middle 60s. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in the most damaging
thunderstorms. Temperatures in east-central Virginia could
approach 90 degrees while the increased mid-level and high
clouds, as well as any convection, will top our temperatures out
in the middle 80s.

The most intense thunderstorms should dissipate later this
evening. Showers and a thunderstorm could linger overnight, but
won't have nearly the punch as the afternoon ones. Patchy fog
is possible overnight, especially in areas that received
rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will pass through the area Wednesday. Showers are
likely with a few thunderstorms possible ahead of and along the
cold front. There is a threat for severe thunderstorms,
especially during the mid- morning into the afternoon near and
east of Interstate 95. Timing of the frontal passage will play a
big role in placement and severity of showers and thunderstorms.

High pressure will build toward the region late Wednesday before
settling overhead Thursday. Breezy conditions are expected
behind the frontal passage later Wednesday into Wednesday night,
and it will turn out much cooler as well. Temps may drop below
freezing near the Allegheny Highlands, so freeze headlines may
be warranted. Some frost is possible farther east if the winds
can decouple overnight. The best chance for that to occur will
be in the valleys west of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

An upper-level trough will dig overhead Thursday night, and a
few showers are possible late, especially across western areas.
Unseasonably chilly conditions are expected Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A deep upper level trough will be located over the Great Lakes and
Northeast Friday. A disturbance will move through the base of the
trough over the local region during the day on Friday providing the
forcing for rain showers. Guidance has trended towards keeping the
developing coastal low offshore Friday night into Saturday morning.
This results in shower chances, with the heavier rain/wind staying
offshore.

As the trough moves offshore Saturday, high pressure will build
locally at the surface. The upper level flow will become more
zonal and temperatures should return closer to normal by Sunday. An
area of low pressure will approach the region Sunday with rain
chances increasing later in the day into Sunday night.

Models diverge with the pattern for Monday. The ECMWF ensembles
support ridging/high pressure Monday while the GFS ensembles suggest
the front stalls and another area of low pressure rides along a
stalled boundary providing more rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected this afternoon through Thursday
night. Any strong to severe thunderstorms that move across the
terminals this afternoon and evening, Wednesday morning, and
Thursday afternoon could briefly reduce visibility to MVFR
conditions. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging
winds and large hail possible.

A cold front will pass through the area Wednesday. Northwest
winds will increase behind the cold front later Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

Primarily VFR conditions expected Friday into early next week
outside of MVFR conditions in any showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A south to southwest flow is expected through midday Wednesday.
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms could venture across
the waters this afternoon and evening that could prompt Special
Marine Warnings. Otherwise, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect
overnight into early Wednesday.

A cold front will pass through the waters Wednesday. More gusty
thunderstorms are possible. Gusty northwest winds behind the
cold front are expected and gale-force winds cannot be ruled out
late Wednesday and Wednesday evening. High pressure will build
toward the waters Thursday and a trough will approach Thursday
night.

SCA conditions are possible Friday into the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
*Tuesday's record highs*
DCA: 93 (1928)
BWI: 91 (2018)
IAD: 90 (2018)

*Wednesday's record warm lows (1 AM-1 AM)*
DCA: 66 (1887)
BWI: 67 (1934)
IAD: 62 (2006)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch Wednesday evening for ANZ530>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ533-534-537-543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KLW
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...KLW/CPB
MARINE...KLW/CPB
CLIMATE...BJL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
406 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ052>057-052015-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
406 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8pm this evening.

Showers and thunderstorms may result in isolated of instance of
flooding and flash flooding this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is an isolated threat for severe thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon with damaging wind and large hail being the primary
threats.

A Gale Watch is in effect for all the waters Wednesday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters have been activated and are asked to report any damage or
large hail to the weather service office through typical means.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
WVZ050>053-055-052015-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
406 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8pm this evening
for areas east of the Blue Ridge.

Showers and thunderstorms may result in isolated of instance of
flooding and flash flooding this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Areas of frost are possible overnight Wednesday, especially in
sheltered Valleys west of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters have been activated and are asked to report any damage or
large hail to the weather service office through typical means.

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-052015-
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
406 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Freeze or frost is possible Wednesday and Thursday nights.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters have been activated and are asked to report any damage or
large hail to the weather service office through typical means.

CJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
415 PM EDT TUE MAY 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOVINGSTON              37.77N  78.88W
05/04/2021                   NELSON             VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 29 IN LOVINGSTON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2103989

CPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
420 PM EDT TUE MAY 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     FLOOD            WOODSTOCK               38.88N  78.52W
05/04/2021                   SHENANDOAH         VA   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER BLOCKING ONE LANE OF PLAINS MILL ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2103990

CPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
430 PM EDT TUE MAY 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE CALVERTON          38.66N  77.64W
05/04/2021                   FAUQUIER           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLEW DOWN ON 5000 BLOCK OF CATLETT ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2103991

CPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
433 PM EDT TUE MAY 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TURNBULL                38.67N  77.86W
05/04/2021                   FAUQUIER           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLEW DOWN ONTO TURNBULL ROAD NEAR INTERSECTION OF
            SPRINGS ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2103992

CPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
437 PM EDT TUE MAY 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE AUBURN            38.72N  77.69W
05/04/2021                   FAUQUIER           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            POLE AND WIRES BLEW DOWN ON 4000 BLOCK OF RINGWOOD
            ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2103993

CPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
441 PM EDT TUE MAY 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW NOKESVILLE        38.70N  77.59W
05/04/2021                   PRINCE WILLIAM     VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE BLEW DOWN ON FARMVIEW ROAD NEAR INTERSECTION OF
            ROUTE 28.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2103994

CPB