Severe Thunderstorm Warning 311, NWS Baltimore/Washington

744 
WWUS51 KLWX 292053
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
453 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

VAC061-153-179-683-685-292130-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-210729T2130Z/
Stafford VA-Fauquier VA-City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA-
City of Manassas VA-
453 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN STAFFORD...SOUTHEASTERN FAUQUIER...AND CENTRAL
PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...THE CITY OF MANASSAS PARK AND THE CITY OF
MANASSAS...

At 453 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of
Bealeton, or 9 miles southeast of Warrenton, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to 
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage 
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed 
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured 
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Warrenton, Linton Hall, Bull Run, Bealeton, Haymarket, Manassas,
Sudley, Manassas Park, Gainesville, New Baltimore, Independent Hill,
Nokesville, Opal, Catlett, Calverton, Midland, Roseville, Broken
Hill, Casanova and Heflin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 7785 3882 7773 3881 7749 3880 7749
      3880 7745 3878 7743 3877 7741 3876 7742
      3875 7741 3875 7739 3843 7746
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 290DEG 20KT 3863 7766 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

DHOF

383 
WWUS51 KLWX 292101
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
501 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

VAC061-153-179-683-685-292130-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-210729T2130Z/
Stafford VA-Fauquier VA-City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA-
City of Manassas VA-
501 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL STAFFORD...EAST CENTRAL FAUQUIER...AND CENTRAL
PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...THE CITY OF MANASSAS PARK AND THE CITY OF
MANASSAS...

At 501 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles east of
Bealeton, or 12 miles southeast of Warrenton, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to 
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage 
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed 
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured 
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Linton Hall, Bull Run, Bealeton, Manassas, Sudley, Manassas Park,
Gainesville, New Baltimore, Independent Hill, Nokesville, Catlett,
Calverton, Midland, Broken Hill, Auburn, Casanova, Greenwich, Aden
and Bristersburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3858 7776 3875 7773 3880 7756 3881 7749
      3880 7749 3880 7745 3878 7743 3877 7741
      3876 7742 3875 7741 3875 7739 3855 7743
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 290DEG 20KT 3861 7760 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DHOF

749 
WWUS51 KLWX 292108
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
508 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

VAC683-685-292117-
/O.CAN.KLWX.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-210729T2130Z/
City of Manassas Park VA-City of Manassas VA-
508 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ...THE CITY OF MANASSAS PARK
AND THE CITY OF MANASSAS IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
northern Virginia.

LAT...LON 3855 7743 3857 7770 3869 7769 3873 7752
      3872 7752 3871 7751 3873 7751 3873 7747
      3874 7745 3875 7739
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 290DEG 20KT 3860 7755 

$$

VAC061-153-179-292130-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-210729T2130Z/
Stafford VA-Fauquier VA-Prince William VA-
508 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL STAFFORD...EAST CENTRAL FAUQUIER AND SOUTHWESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...

At 507 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles south of
Linton Hall, or 11 miles west of Dale City, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to 
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage 
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed 
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured 
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Linton Hall, Manassas, Independent Hill, Nokesville, Catlett,
Calverton, Aden and Bristersburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3855 7743 3857 7770 3869 7769 3873 7752
      3872 7752 3871 7751 3873 7751 3873 7747
      3874 7745 3875 7739
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 290DEG 20KT 3860 7755 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DHOF

743 
WWUS51 KLWX 292121
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
521 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

VAC061-153-179-292130-
/O.EXP.KLWX.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-210729T2130Z/
Stafford VA-Fauquier VA-Prince William VA-
521 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL STAFFORD...EAST
CENTRAL FAUQUIER AND SOUTHWESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 530 PM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
northern Virginia.

LAT...LON 3855 7743 3857 7770 3869 7769 3873 7752
      3872 7752 3871 7751 3873 7751 3873 7747
      3874 7745 3875 7739
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 290DEG 20KT 3858 7748 

$$

BJL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
334 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area later today and move through
tonight. A reinforcing front will move through tomorrow, with high
pressure building in its wake for the first half of the weekend.
Additional systems may impact the region from Sunday into the early
to middle portions of next week as troughing becomes established
over the eastern half of the country.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined MCV over western
portions of our forecast area. Mainly showers accompany this
feature at the moment, but cells are just starting to pop
within the zone ahead of it. The expectation is that cells will
intensify to the east of the Blue Ridge over the next 1-2 hours
as ascent in advance of the MCV overspreads the area of higher
instability to the east of the Blue Ridge. Current mesoanalysis
shows around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE near the spine of the Blue
Ridge, with instability increasing with eastward extent to
around 1500 J/kg along the bay. SPC Mesoanalysis shows a belt
of around 40 knots of flow at 700 hPa along the Mason-Dixon
line, decreasing to around 25 knots at the southern CWA border.
At 500 hPa, 40-50 knots of flow is analyzed over the entire CWA. 18z
IAD sounding matches up well with those parameters, showing 823
J/kg of MLCAPE, 36 knots of flow at 700 hPa, 40 knots of flow
at 500 hPa, and an effective bulk shear value of 43 knots.
Given the overlap of shear and instability to the east of the
Blue Ridge, supercells appear possible, with upscale growth
into bowing segments also possible. With a supercellular storm
mode, damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are all possible.
The greatest tornado threat in our area will likely reside
across northeastern and north central Maryland, where the
greatest low- level shear resides. For that reason, those
locations are in a Tornado Watch, while the rest of the CWA is
in a severe thunderstorm watch. Flooding looks to be a low, but
non-zero threat as storms will be moving along at a fast clip.

In terms of timing, the main round of severe weather is expected
to be with the storms developing now (3 PM) ahead of the MCV.
This area of storms is nearing the Blue Ridge now, and should
progress eastward across the area over the next 2-3 hours,
moving over the bay by around 6 PM or so. More isolated activity
is possible behind this initial activity. Another more focused
round of storms may form across the Ohio Valley late this
afternoon and move toward the Allegheny Front this evening.
Models are in lesser agreement regarding activity behind the
initial round with the MCV, but a few storms could potentially
linger into the overnight since the cold front will still be
situated off to our north and west. The front will press
southward through the area during the second half of the
overnight, bringing chances for storms to an end.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
By daybreak tomorrow, the cold front will be situated just to our
south, and will continue to push further to our south throughout the
day. Much drier air will gradually advect into the area in
northwesterly flow behind the front, with dewpoints dropping from
the upper 60s around daybreak to the 50s by evening. Cold advection
aloft will largely be offset by diurnal heating, with high
temperatures still climbing into the mid to upper 80s. Mostly sunny
skies are expected along with a northwesterly breeze. Winds may gust
to in excess of 20 mph during the afternoon hours.

A reinforcing cold front will move through tomorrow night, with
cooler and even drier air moving into the are in its wake. Lows
Friday night will dip into the 50s across the northwestern half of
the forecast area, with lower 60s across the southeastern half of
the area.

A mix of sun and some high clouds is expected on Saturday as high
pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. Winds will be lighter compared
to tomorrow. Temperatures will only reach into the upper 70s to
lower 80s, and dewpoints will drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s,
leading to an uncharacteristically cool day for late July, with well
below normal humidity values.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid-level trough of low pressure and a surface front will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Highs in the middle 80s.

Weak high pressure will build in behind the front and bring dry and
slightly cooler temperatures into the region Sunday night and
Monday. Highs Monday lower to middle 80s.

As for Tuesday and Wednesday, a variety of uncertainties expected
with a possible front dropping in from the northwest, a possible
coastal low to the south and southeast, and timing of each. Should
the front win out on verifying, then severe weather could be
possible mainly in the western and central zones. If the coastal low
wins, then more of a persistent modest rain could evolve which could
lead to some localized flooding in the heaviest activities. Highs
each day will be in the middle to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Confidence is increasing that thunderstorms will impact the
terminals during the mid to late afternoon hours today. TEMPOs
have been introduced into the TAFs where the threat is greatest
to narrow in on timing. Coverage of storms is expected to
decrease moving into this evening, but at least some threat for
an isolated storm or two will last through the first half of the
overnight hours.

VFR conditions are expected for both tomorrow and Saturday.
Winds may gust to around 20 knots out of the northwest tomorrow
afternoon. Lighter winds are expected on Saturday as high
pressure builds toward the area from the Ohio Valley.

Isolated showers or a thunderstorm near a few of the terminals could
reduce conditions to MVFR briefly; otherwise, VFR conditions
expected Sunday through Monday night. Winds southwest 5 to 10 knots
Sunday, becoming northwest 5 knots Sunday night. Winds northwest
becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots Monday. Winds light and variable
Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will gradually increase over the waters today. SCAs are in
effect later this afternoon into this evening for southerly
channeling. SMWs will likely be needed over the waters this
afternoon into this evening. Winds in excess of 50 knots, large hail
and even isolated waterspouts may be possible in association with
storms this afternoon into this evening. SCA winds are expected
again tomorrow in northwesterly flow behind a cold front. This SCA
may eventually need to be extended into tomorrow night as a
reinforcing cold front moves through. Lighter west to northwesterly
winds are expected over the waters on Saturday.

No marine hazards expected Sunday through Monday night. Winds
southwest 10 knots Sunday, then northwest becoming northeast 5
to 10 knots Sunday night and Monday. Winds light and variable
Monday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will result
in some locations reaching action stage through tonight. Minor
flooding is most likely to occur at the most sensitive sites,
such as Annapolis. As the winds become northwest behind the
front on Friday, the anomalies will decrease.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ531>533-539>541.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ534-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ537.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/KJP
MARINE...KLW/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CPB/KLW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
302 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ052>057-301000-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
302 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 9 PM for portions of northeast
and central Maryland, including the Baltimore Metropolitan area. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the rest of the area
until 9 PM. Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible during this
time. Additionally, isolated occurrences of flash flooding are
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters have been activated.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
WVZ050>053-055-301000-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
302 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 9 PM for portions central
Maryland. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the rest
of the area until 9 PM. Scattered severe thunderstorms with
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are
possible during this time. Additionally, isolated occurrences of
flash flooding are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters have been activated.

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-301000-
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
302 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the area until 9 PM.
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado are possible during this
time. Additionally, isolated occurrences of flash flooding are
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters have been activated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
222 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     WATER SPOUT      18 ENE DARES BEACH      38.65N  76.20W
07/29/2021                   ANZ541             MD   PUBLIC

            A WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED OVER THE TIDAL CHOPTANK
            RIVER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2105059

DH