Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
644 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.AVIATION...
VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period with
showers and thunderstorms expected to be in the vicinity of all
three terminal until around midnight. Winds could change quickly
from outflow boundaries from these storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 213 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021/

SHORT TERM...
Thunderstorms already ongoing and fairly numerous across the Texas
Panhandle in proximity to an upper level short wave trough located
from the Great Lakes to the Panhandle. Meanwhile, further south,
some isolated thunderstorms have developed across the Rolling Plains
in a zone of surface confluence with additional isolated
thunderstorms forming across southeastern New Mexico and the Permian
Basin in an area of weak capping and midlevel monsoonal moisture. Hi-
res models show little agreement with development and evolution of
the precipitation fields this afternoon and tonight, which is not
terribly surprising given the relative weakness to the forcing apart
from the upper trough. In general, think that chance category PoPs
will suffice for tonight to start given the lack of clarity from the
models. With the upper trough progged to move slowly to the
southeast through tonight and Tuesday, the extreme southeastern
Panhandle and Rolling Plains may be more in play to get
thunderstorms than previously anticipated, and have upped PoPs some
there. Will then begin to trim PoPs from north to south with time
from late tonight into Tuesday morning as the trough moves further
east. By Tuesday afternoon, the departing upper trough should allow
for the deeper monsoonal moisture to move back over a larger part of
the forecast with chance PoPs looking reasonable Tuesday afternoon
given the increased moisture and weak capping.

LONG TERM...
There has been a subtle shift to the south for precipitation
chances Tuesday night into Wednesday with the upper level trough
overhead sharpening and becoming more positively tilted, though
the highest POPs remain over the southern Rolling Plains. This
same upper level trough lifts north somewhat on Thursday, stuck
between the area of high pressure building to the north of what
will be left of Fred, and strengthening closed low in the
intermountain west. Deep boundary layer moisture will remain in
place for Thursday with increased instability late Thursday
afternoon and evening. The GFS continues to show upwards of 2000
J/Kg, with the NAM indicating a peak as high as 2500 J/Kg early
Thursday evening in the southern South Plains. There will be a
chance for strong to marginally severe wind gusts from outflow
where storms are able to initiate. Locations on the Caprock will
have slightly cooler air aloft to work with, while the Rolling
Plains will have deeper surface moisture/convergence. It's too
early to pinpoint attm exactly where the strongest convection will
develop.

The upper level trough associated with the Pacific Low sweeps E/NE
Thursday night with drier air gradually mixing down to the surface
through the day Friday. PWATS will drop below 1.25" for the first
time in awhile, though slight chance POPs linger into Saturday
afternoon as the upper level trough drags east. The Bermuda High
centers itself over Texarkana for the end of the weekend into the
beginning of next week, providing warmer temperatures but holding
off precip chances well to our west.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

55/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
251 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

TXZ021>044-170800-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
251 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and tonight. The stronger storms are not expected to be
severe, but will bring the possibility of wind gusts to 55 mph.
Localized heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with
some storms because of their slow movement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible much of the week with the highest
probabilities and areal coverage on Tuesday. On any particular day,
if storms develop they will likely be slow moving and bring the
potential for heavy rain with localized flooding concerns.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
713 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

TXZ029-030-170045-
Floyd TX-Hale TX-
713 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Floyd
and eastern Hale Counties through 745 PM CDT...

At 713 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Plainview, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Plainview, Floydada, Hale Center, Lockney, Petersburg, Aiken and Seth
Ward.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3400 10127 3383 10153 3383 10169 3412 10190
      3431 10172
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 329DEG 23KT 3408 10168

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

WCI