River Flood Advisory 2, NWS Lubbock, TX

838 
WGUS84 KLUB 170930
FLSLUB

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
430 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...The Flood Advisory is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  Double Mountain Fork Brazos near Lubbock 4ESE affecting Lubbock 
  County.

.Due to less runoff than expected, the Double Mountain Fork of the 
Brazos near Buffalo Springs and Ransom Canyon is no longer expected 
to pose a flooding threat of FM 835 just west of Buffalo Springs.

TXC303-171030-
/O.CAN.KLUB.FL.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210817T0930Z/
/LSET2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
430 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...The Flood Advisory for the Double Mountain Fork Brazos near 
Lubbock 4ESE has been cancelled...

The Flood Advisory is cancelled for
  the Double Mountain Fork Brazos near Lubbock 4ESE.
* At 4:00 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 8.6 feet.
* No official flood stage exists.
* Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.


&&

LAT...LON 3358 10183 3361 10183 3355 10177 3354 10171
      3352 10171 3352 10176

$$

WCI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly move to the northeast
early this morning. Most of the activity has come to an end at
the area terminals however very brief light showers may still
impact KLBB or KPVW until 07z. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue south and west of the terminals for several more hours
leading to reduced visibility due to heavy rain and lowered cloud
heights but again this activity will not affect the TAF sites.
After a short break in shower and thunderstorm activity late this
morning additional development is possible this afternoon and
evening. Confidence on this activity impacting the terminals is to
low at this time to include a mention in the TAF. Outside of
thunderstorms VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through
this TAF period. /WCI

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 213 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021/

SHORT TERM...
Thunderstorms already ongoing and fairly numerous across the Texas
Panhandle in proximity to an upper level short wave trough located
from the Great Lakes to the Panhandle. Meanwhile, further south,
some isolated thunderstorms have developed across the Rolling Plains
in a zone of surface confluence with additional isolated
thunderstorms forming across southeastern New Mexico and the Permian
Basin in an area of weak capping and midlevel monsoonal moisture. Hi-
res models show little agreement with development and evolution of
the precipitation fields this afternoon and tonight, which is not
terribly surprising given the relative weakness to the forcing apart
from the upper trough. In general, think that chance category PoPs
will suffice for tonight to start given the lack of clarity from the
models. With the upper trough progged to move slowly to the
southeast through tonight and Tuesday, the extreme southeastern
Panhandle and Rolling Plains may be more in play to get
thunderstorms than previously anticipated, and have upped PoPs some
there. Will then begin to trim PoPs from north to south with time
from late tonight into Tuesday morning as the trough moves further
east. By Tuesday afternoon, the departing upper trough should allow
for the deeper monsoonal moisture to move back over a larger part of
the forecast with chance PoPs looking reasonable Tuesday afternoon
given the increased moisture and weak capping.

LONG TERM...
There has been a subtle shift to the south for precipitation
chances Tuesday night into Wednesday with the upper level trough
overhead sharpening and becoming more positively tilted, though
the highest POPs remain over the southern Rolling Plains. This
same upper level trough lifts north somewhat on Thursday, stuck
between the area of high pressure building to the north of what
will be left of Fred, and strengthening closed low in the
intermountain west. Deep boundary layer moisture will remain in
place for Thursday with increased instability late Thursday
afternoon and evening. The GFS continues to show upwards of 2000
J/Kg, with the NAM indicating a peak as high as 2500 J/Kg early
Thursday evening in the southern South Plains. There will be a
chance for strong to marginally severe wind gusts from outflow
where storms are able to initiate. Locations on the Caprock will
have slightly cooler air aloft to work with, while the Rolling
Plains will have deeper surface moisture/convergence. It's too
early to pinpoint attm exactly where the strongest convection will
develop.

The upper level trough associated with the Pacific Low sweeps E/NE
Thursday night with drier air gradually mixing down to the surface
through the day Friday. PWATS will drop below 1.25" for the first
time in awhile, though slight chance POPs linger into Saturday
afternoon as the upper level trough drags east. The Bermuda High
centers itself over Texarkana for the end of the weekend into the
beginning of next week, providing warmer temperatures but holding
off precip chances well to our west.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

58/07/55

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
251 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

TXZ021>044-170800-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
251 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and tonight. The stronger storms are not expected to be
severe, but will bring the possibility of wind gusts to 55 mph.
Localized heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with
some storms because of their slow movement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible much of the week with the highest
probabilities and areal coverage on Tuesday. On any particular day,
if storms develop they will likely be slow moving and bring the
potential for heavy rain with localized flooding concerns.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
923 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     FLOOD            1 ESE WASSON            34.21N 101.74W
08/16/2021                   HALE               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HALE COUNTY SHERIFF'S OFFICE REPORTED THAT WEST BOUND
            TEXAS HIGHWAY 194 WAS FLOODED JUST NORTH OF PLAINVIEW.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100464

WCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1010 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     FLOOD            1 SE WASSON             34.21N 101.75W
08/16/2021                   HALE               TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA PHOTO FROM A VIEWER SHOWED WATER
            APPROXIMATELY ONE FOOT DEEP ON A NEIGHBORHOOD ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100465

WCI