Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
938 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

.UPDATE...
Thunder storm coverage has begun to shift eastward this evening with
the majority of the thunderstorm coverage over the southeastern
Texas Panhandle and the Rolling Plains. Thus, the tornado watch
has been canceled for Cochran, Hockley, Yoakum and Lamb counties.
A tornado watch remains in effect through 11 PM CDT for the
remainder of the area. Short term models continue to show this
round of storms moving eastward and out of the CWA with a another
round of severe thunderstorms capable of generating golf ball
size hail, wind gusts to 65 mph and intense rainfall and flash
flooding may develop over the southern South Plains and the
Rolling Plains after midnight, and persist into Tuesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021/

AVIATION...
Scattered strong thunderstorms, with isolated rotating supercell
thunderstorms, were affecting areas just west of both KLBB and
KPVW early this evening. These storms will pass near or over both
airports over the next several hours and have potential to produce
significant weather including high wind gusts, large hail, and
perhaps nearby tornadoes. Also, intense rain cores may lower
visibilities significantly. Storms were a little further west
still of KCDS but likewise will be impacting KCDS more in coming
hours as well. Storms should move east of both KLBB and KPVW by
late evening and give a break with mostly VFR expected, while
storms likely to continue near or at KCDS well into the night and
likely into early morning Tuesday. Another impulse will bring
increasing thunderstorm chances once more to both KLBB and KPVW
near or just before daybreak Tuesday continuing through the
morning hours. Meantime, low clouds likely to reform later tonight
with largest impact probably KCDS though could be offset by nearby
storms. RADAR will change considerably and likely will not
represent departure conditions. Be advised that Tornado Watch and
a Flash Flood Watch are in effect until midnight tonight. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021/

SHORT TERM...
Relatively cool and somewhat surprisingly dry airmass (with dewpoints
dropping into the upper 40s) much of the day so far, following the
early morning outflows. By mid afternoon, however, we were seeing
rapid recovery of higher dewpoints and gradually warmer temperatures
as a surface low pressure center was deepening over eastern New
Mexico. Anticipation is the surface low will shift into southeast
New Mexico and increase the moist, low level inflow across our area
in advance of the strong upper level low pressure system over
eastern Arizona. Solutions consistent breaking out scattered strong
or severe thunderstorms by 4 or 5 pm near the New Mexico-Texas
border with storms moving to the east. Combination of instability
and shear support rapidly rotation supercells and a valid tornado
threat, so a Tornado Watch will be in effect this evening at least
areas on the Caprock if not all areas. We also issued a Flash Flood
Watch this evening the entire area over concern for slower moving
right-splitting supercells. Forecast hodographs exhibit straight-
lines initially late this afternoon and early evening, favoring
splitting storms, before stronger flow leads to a more coalesced
system into the eastern part of the area later this evening.

Another impulse appears will stream across the area later tonight.
So following a break in activity on the Caprock later this evening,
we expect a renewal of storm chances early Tuesday mainly from the
southern South Plains to the Rolling Plains. But rain coverage from
this next impulse remains uncertain and largely dependent on the
early evening storms. None-the-less, slightly cooler and moist low
level conditions likely to blanket the area again early Tuesday
after this next impulse departs to the east.

Focus Tuesday afternoon once again will likely turn west to to the
dryline, which probably will be in eastern New Mexico once again.
The large upper level storm system still will be just west of the
area. We retained a chance mention for storms much of the area
Tuesday afternoon, but perhaps better chances will be later Tuesday
or Tuesday night; see discussion below. RMcQueen

LONG TERM...
The upper level closed low currently to our west, helping to drive
recent severe convection will begin to lift north out of northeast
New Mexico tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning. As the low
evolves into an open wave, a sharp trough will linger over our
general longitude with high pressure amplifying across eastern
CONUS. The lingering trough and surface pressure falls in eastern
New Mexico will keep chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast late Tuesday night and Wednesday, along and east
of a dryline currently progged to position in vicinity of the I27
corridor. The SPC currently has most of our area in a Day 3
Marginal for more severe storms on Wednesday. The upper level low
turned open wave and associated trough will get absorbed by the
polar jet back into the next Pacific low over NOCAL Thursday, as
the broad ridging across the east serves to block eastern
progression. There will be a break in convective activity on
Thursday as the upper trough gets absorbed, followed by deep
boundary layer Gulf moisture return beginning early Friday as the
blocking ridge expands west. The expected moisture return and
westward expansion of the ridge coupled with the deepening of the
next Pacific Low to our west may lead to another round of severe
weather over multiple days next weekend.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ023>026-
030>032-036>038-042>044.

&&

99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1151 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

TXZ021>044-181700-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1151 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms for the South
Plains and Rolling Plains this afternoon into tonight, with an
enhanced risk of severe weather for the southern Texas Panhandle.

Isolated to scattered supercell thunderstorms are expected to
develop near a dryline across the southwest Texas Panhandle and
western and central South Plains this afternoon. These storms will
become more enhanced where the dryline intersects an east-west
boundary crossing the southern and central South Plains and southern
Rolling Plains. These storms will quickly become severe and be
capable of producing baseball size hail, wind gusts to 75 mph,
torrential rainfall and tornadoes. This activity will move eastward
through the evening, likely growing into a larger complex of
thunderstorms as it moves off the Caprock. A hail, wind and heavy
rain threat will continue with the complex of thunderstorm through
the evening as well as still a risk for a few tornadoes.

Another round of severe thunderstorms capable of generating golf
ball size hail, wind gusts to 65 mph and intense rainfall and flash
flooding may develop over the southern South Plains and the Rolling
Plains late tonight, after midnight, and persist into Tuesday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

More opportunities for thunderstorms will exist late Tuesday,
Wednesday and then again from Friday into next weekend. Some of
these storms could be strong to severe and produce heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed. Please relay any information
about severe weather to the NWS while following local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
849 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     HAIL             2 N LOCKETTVILLE        33.42N 102.32W
05/17/2021  M1.00 INCH       HOCKLEY            TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100330

KENDRICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
904 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     HAIL             TURKEY                  34.39N 100.90W
05/17/2021  E2.00 INCH       HALL               TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100331

KENDRICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
940 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     HAIL             3 ESE LUBBOCK SOUTH PLA 33.53N 101.87W
05/17/2021  M1.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AT KLBK STUDIOS.

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100327

KENDRICK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
949 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

TXZ042-043-180315-
Kent TX-Garza TX-
949 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KENT AND
SOUTHEASTERN GARZA COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 949 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Justiceburg, or 4 miles west of Lake Alan Henry, moving east at 35
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Alan Henry and Justiceburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Texas.

LAT...LON 3312 10124 3318 10092 3297 10093 3297 10105
      3296 10124
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 268DEG 32KT 3303 10115

SINCAVAGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1001 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     HAIL             1 W LUBBOCK SOUTH PLAI  33.54N 101.93W
05/17/2021  M1.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100332

KENDRICK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1013 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

TXZ025-026-031-032-180345-
Childress TX-Motley TX-Hall TX-Cottle TX-
1013 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHILDRESS...NORTHERN
COTTLE...EASTERN MOTLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM
CDT...

At 1013 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Northfield, or 16 miles northeast of Matador, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Childress, Paducah, Northfield, Cee Vee, Tell and Swearingen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for the Panhandle
of and northwestern Texas. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect
until 1100 PM CDT for the Panhandle of and northwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3390 10064 3406 10085 3426 10087 3444 10023
      3408 10006
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 243DEG 37KT 3415 10059

MP/GLK