Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Lubbock, TX

456 
WGUS84 KLUB 180157
FLSLUB

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
857 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

TXC303-305-180207-
/O.CAN.KLUB.FA.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-210518T0230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lubbock TX-Lynn TX-
857 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

...FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED FOR LUBBOCK AND NORTHEASTERN LYNN 
COUNTIES...

Rainfall from the storms was less than expected, generally less than 
one third inch. With the storms quickly moving east, the minor 
flooding is not longer a threat.

LAT...LON 3375 10208 3374 10188 3375 10156 3367 10156
      3361 10156 3352 10156 3349 10156 3340 10156
      3339 10156 3338 10206

$$

Lipe

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
654 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

.AVIATION...
Scattered strong thunderstorms, with isolated rotating supercell
thunderstorms, were affecting areas just west of both KLBB and
KPVW early this evening. These storms will pass near or over both
airports over the next several hours and have potential to produce
significant weather including high wind gusts, large hail, and
perhaps nearby tornadoes. Also, intense rain cores may lower
visibilities significantly. Storms were a little further west
still of KCDS but likewise will be impacting KCDS more in coming
hours as well. Storms should move east of both KLBB and KPVW by
late evening and give a break with mostly VFR expected, while
storms likely to continue near or at KCDS well into the night and
likely into early morning Tuesday. Another impulse will bring
increasing thunderstorm chances once more to both KLBB and KPVW
near or just before daybreak Tuesday continuing through the
morning hours. Meantime, low clouds likely to reform later tonight
with largest impact probably KCDS though could be offset by nearby
storms. RADAR will change considerably and likely will not
represent departure conditions. Be advised that Tornado Watch and
a Flash Flood Watch are in effect until midnight tonight. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021/

SHORT TERM...
Relatively cool and somewhat surprisingly dry airmass (with dewpoints
dropping into the upper 40s) much of the day so far, following the
early morning outflows. By mid afternoon, however, we were seeing
rapid recovery of higher dewpoints and gradually warmer temperatures
as a surface low pressure center was deepening over eastern New
Mexico. Anticipation is the surface low will shift into southeast
New Mexico and increase the moist, low level inflow across our area
in advance of the strong upper level low pressure system over
eastern Arizona. Solutions consistent breaking out scattered strong
or severe thunderstorms by 4 or 5 pm near the New Mexico-Texas
border with storms moving to the east. Combination of instability
and shear support rapidly rotation supercells and a valid tornado
threat, so a Tornado Watch will be in effect this evening at least
areas on the Caprock if not all areas. We also issued a Flash Flood
Watch this evening the entire area over concern for slower moving
right-splitting supercells. Forecast hodographs exhibit straight-
lines initially late this afternoon and early evening, favoring
splitting storms, before stronger flow leads to a more coalesced
system into the eastern part of the area later this evening.

Another impulse appears will stream across the area later tonight.
So following a break in activity on the Caprock later this evening,
we expect a renewal of storm chances early Tuesday mainly from the
southern South Plains to the Rolling Plains. But rain coverage from
this next impulse remains uncertain and largely dependent on the
early evening storms. None-the-less, slightly cooler and moist low
level conditions likely to blanket the area again early Tuesday
after this next impulse departs to the east.

Focus Tuesday afternoon once again will likely turn west to to the
dryline, which probably will be in eastern New Mexico once again.
The large upper level storm system still will be just west of the
area. We retained a chance mention for storms much of the area
Tuesday afternoon, but perhaps better chances will be later Tuesday
or Tuesday night; see discussion below. RMcQueen

LONG TERM...
The upper level closed low currently to our west, helping to drive
recent severe convection will begin to lift north out of northeast
New Mexico tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning. As the low
evolves into an open wave, a sharp trough will linger over our
general longitude with high pressure amplifying across eastern
CONUS. The lingering trough and surface pressure falls in eastern
New Mexico will keep chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast late Tuesday night and Wednesday, along and east
of a dryline currently progged to position in vicinity of the I27
corridor. The SPC currently has most of our area in a Day 3
Marginal for more severe storms on Wednesday. The upper level low
turned open wave and associated trough will get absorbed by the
polar jet back into the next Pacific low over NOCAL Thursday, as
the broad ridging across the east serves to block eastern
progression. There will be a break in convective activity on
Thursday as the upper trough gets absorbed, followed by deep
boundary layer Gulf moisture return beginning early Friday as the
blocking ridge expands west. The expected moisture return and
westward expansion of the ridge coupled with the deepening of the
next Pacific Low to our west may lead to another round of severe
weather over multiple days next weekend.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ021>044.

&&

99/99/05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1151 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

TXZ021>044-181700-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1151 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms for the South
Plains and Rolling Plains this afternoon into tonight, with an
enhanced risk of severe weather for the southern Texas Panhandle.

Isolated to scattered supercell thunderstorms are expected to
develop near a dryline across the southwest Texas Panhandle and
western and central South Plains this afternoon. These storms will
become more enhanced where the dryline intersects an east-west
boundary crossing the southern and central South Plains and southern
Rolling Plains. These storms will quickly become severe and be
capable of producing baseball size hail, wind gusts to 75 mph,
torrential rainfall and tornadoes. This activity will move eastward
through the evening, likely growing into a larger complex of
thunderstorms as it moves off the Caprock. A hail, wind and heavy
rain threat will continue with the complex of thunderstorm through
the evening as well as still a risk for a few tornadoes.

Another round of severe thunderstorms capable of generating golf
ball size hail, wind gusts to 65 mph and intense rainfall and flash
flooding may develop over the southern South Plains and the Rolling
Plains late tonight, after midnight, and persist into Tuesday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

More opportunities for thunderstorms will exist late Tuesday,
Wednesday and then again from Friday into next weekend. Some of
these storms could be strong to severe and produce heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed. Please relay any information
about severe weather to the NWS while following local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
703 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TORNADO          9 SW MULESHOE           34.14N 102.84W
05/17/2021                   BAILEY             TX   STORM CHASER

            TWITTER VIDEO INDICATES A LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100312

MCQUEEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
708 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     HAIL             N NEEDMORE              34.03N 102.74W
05/17/2021  M2.00 INCH       BAILEY             TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100313

KENDRICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
710 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             6 SW LEVELLAND          33.52N 102.44W
05/17/2021  E1.25 INCH       HOCKLEY            TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100314

KENDRICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
717 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             6 SSE LEVELLAND         33.50N 102.32W
05/17/2021  E1.75 INCH       HOCKLEY            TX   SOCIAL MEDIA

            PHOTO VIA TWITTER. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100315

DWK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
729 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE DIMMITT            34.57N 102.29W
05/17/2021  M71 MPH          CASTRO             TX   MESONET

            WEST TEXAS MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100316

KENDRICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
731 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     HAIL             5 SW SMYER              33.54N 102.22W
05/17/2021  M2.50 INCH       HOCKLEY            TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100317

KENDRICK