Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
618 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021

.AVIATION...
VFR at all terminals expected through the evening and night. VCTS
is possible through 03Z near KLBB and KPVW as thunderstorms move
through the area from ERN NM. Confidence remains low of TS
affecting either terminal but have included VCTS. Strong
downburst winds under rain shafts will be the main concern.
Increased winds are expected tomorrow with possible BLDU
after 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021/

SHORT TERM...
The passing of an upper level ridge axis this afternoon will signal
a transition to southwesterly flow aloft in response to a trough
axis emanating from a low across the BC west coast and extending
toward Baja California. Lee troughing across eastern NM will
continue to pull moisture into the region. A passing area of
favorable lift, identified by Q-vector analysis, is expected
across that region around the time of peak heating this afternoon
leading to the development of thunderstorms along the western edge
of the theta-e gradient. This activity should make it into the
CWFA around or a little after dinner time this evening in the form
of a broken line of scattered storms. With the loss of daytime
heating, these storms should begin to dissipate and the bulk of
the activity should remain along and west of the I-27/US87
corridor. Some straggler activity could persist thereafter across
the southern Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. Soundings show
a fairly anemic CAPE profile as they did early this week.
However, it is May in West Texas and potential for hail to the
size of quarters seems reasonable for the strongest storms. That
said, there is no guarantee any storm will generate large hail. Of
greater risk, however, is the prospect for damaging downburst
winds to 65 mph.

Into Saturday, the surface dryline is expected to sharpen though
indications are things will remain well capped up around 15kft with
dry conditions in the subcloud layer across the western 2/3rds.
Storm opportunities are just a bit better in the Rolling Plains but
still not great. The issue is the scant nature of available moisture
near the LFC. If storms manage to form, severe hail and wind will be
possible. Further west, fire weather concerns abound as winds will
approach 30 mph with sub 10% RH values. A fire weather watch has
been issued for Saturday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM...
A cold front will move through Saturday night, resulting highs 10 to
15 degrees cooler for Sunday than Saturday. An upper-level shortwave
trough will move through the Texas Panhandle Sunday evening and is
expected to bring precipitation to the Panhandle. This activity
could possibly move into the extreme southern Texas Panhandle late
Sunday. Any activity that does move into the area will be limited in
both time and location. Isentropic upglide Sunday night into Monday
will result in low stratus Monday morning.

An upper-level trough will move across the Rockies and into the
central Plains Monday bringing the potential of precipitation to the
CFWA late Monday into Tuesday. With cloudy skies and the potential
of precipitation over the area, temperatures should only make it in
the 60s and low 70s on Tuesday. As the trough moves to the east, an
upper-level ridge will begin to move into the area. This will result
in calmer weather going into the latter part of this week. The ridge
will flatten as a trough moves into the northwestern CONUS on
Friday. There is some indication that a shortwave will form within
the flattened ridge Friday, which would bring the potential for
precipitation late Friday into Saturday.
GKendrick

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>042.

&&

99/99/28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
418 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021

TXZ021>044-082130-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
418 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the
far southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains this evening and
tonight. A few of these storms may produce wind gusts up to 65 MPH
and hail to the size of quarters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hot, dry and gusty southwesterly winds will create critical fire
weather, especially west of the Caprock Escarpment, Saturday
afternoon and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from noon
until midnight for the South Plains, western Rolling Plains and
southern Texas Panhandle. In addition, the southwesterly winds may
become sustained in excess of 30 mph over portions of the Caprock
Saturday afternoon. Across the Rolling Plains, a conditional risk for
isolated severe thunderstorms will exist Saturday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening. Please relay any
information about severe weather to the NWS while following local,
state, and CDC guidelines.

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