Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Lubbock, TX

702 
WWUS54 KLUB 130505
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1105 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

TXC107-125-153-345-130600-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-210313T0600Z/
Dickens TX-Floyd TX-Crosby TX-Motley TX-
1105 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN DICKENS...SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD...NORTHEASTERN CROSBY
AND SOUTHWESTERN MOTLEY COUNTIES...

At 1104 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles north of
Crosbyton, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Mcadoo and Roaring Springs. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3371 10122 3382 10126 3395 10084 3370 10083
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 255DEG 21KT 3371 10123 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

55

534 
WWUS54 KLUB 130514
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1114 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

TXC107-125-153-345-130600-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-210313T0600Z/
Dickens TX-Floyd TX-Crosby TX-Motley TX-
1114 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN DICKENS...SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD...NORTHEASTERN CROSBY
AND SOUTHWESTERN MOTLEY COUNTIES...

At 1114 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest
of Mcadoo, or 12 miles northeast of Crosbyton, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Dickens, southeastern Floyd, northeastern Crosby and
southwestern Motley Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3375 10118 3383 10122 3384 10120 3392 10093
      3375 10094
TIME...MOT...LOC 0514Z 222DEG 26KT 3381 10115 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

55

160 
WWUS54 KLUB 130520
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1120 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

TXC107-125-153-345-130529-
/O.CAN.KLUB.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-210313T0600Z/
Dickens TX-Floyd TX-Crosby TX-Motley TX-
1120 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DICKENS...
SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD...NORTHEASTERN CROSBY AND SOUTHWESTERN MOTLEY
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CST for
northwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3375 10118 3383 10122 3384 10120 3392 10093
      3375 10094
TIME...MOT...LOC 0518Z 257DEG 21KT 3382 10111 

$$

55

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
546 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

.AVIATION...
A strong upper low to move across the 4-corners region the next 24
hours resulting in dynamic weather across the South Plains area.
Thunderstorms to move SW to NE this evening followed by MVFR and
possibly IFR stratus late tonight and early Saturday. Increasingly
strong surface winds through Saturday morning from the southeast
followed by a dry line or Pacific cold front that will bring drier
air and gusty southwest to west winds Saturday afternoon and may
spawn additional TS most likely affecting KCDS late in the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021/

SHORT TERM...
Warm moist southerly flow continues to advect higher dewpoints into
our area this afternoon with a surface boundary draped just north of
the area in the AMA CWA. Out west very slow clearing is occurring
with the dryline making a very slow progression towards the
eastward. Should the dryline mix into or very close to the CWA the
area south of the surface boundary and east of the dryline will be
the area to watch as CAPE values could climb well into the 1000 J/kg
range. The strongest instability will likely be muted by the cloud
coverage resulting in storms being more elevated in nature this
afternoon if they do develop.

This evening and into tonight as the upper level low continues to
move east and we begin to see the affects of the large scale ascent
combined with the intensifying LLJ we could see strong to severe
thunderstorms develop. With 65+ kts of Bulk shear, a strong LLJ and
ample lapse rates values, supercells capable of producing large hail
of up to 2.00" can't be ruled out with winds gusts in the 60 to 70
mph range. It should be noted that the current thinking is that
surface based storms chances are low. However, any storm that
develops along the intersection of the LLJ and the stationary
boundary or along the dryline will have the potential to become
rooted and pose a tornadic threat. Given the high PWs present any
supercells that do develop cause localized flooding. Thus, we have
included all hazards in this forecast.

Overnight as the LLJ shifts further east and cooling occurs
thunderstorm activity will become very isolated and elevated, but
the severe threat returns tomorrow.

As the deep upper low to our west moves across northern Arizona
tonight and then into NM early tomorrow morning large scale ascent will
be over the area. An associated Pacific cold front will concurrently
sweep eastward through the CWA starting tomorrow morning. By
tomorrow afternoon deep lifting along the front in conjunction with
strong upper level support will meet 50F to 60F dewpoints across the
eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains to create another round of
severe weather. Once again steep lapse rates, diurnal heating and
CAPE values in the 1000 J/kg range will be present. The mode of
storms tomorrow afternoon will depend on the speed of the front. At
this point the thinking is that the front will be quick moving and
the mode will be linear in nature. The main difference between today
and tomorrow will be that surface based storm will be much more
likely given the presence of the Pacific front. Capping will also be
much weaker tomorrow allowing for less resistance to convective
initiation. With all the dymamics present all hazards will once
again in play with hail and wind gusts being the most impactful.

West of the Pacific front across the South Plains low and mid level
gradients will strengthen causing windy conditions with wind speeds
edging towards advisory criteria. Very dry air will also be advected
behind the front reintroducing a fire weather threat to the far
southwestern South Plains.

LONG TERM...
Convection should be close to exiting the FA to the east by tomorrow
evening as the Pacific front continues pushing through the region.
Some severe storms will continue to be possible especially along the
Pacific front with severe winds and hail over one inch in diameter
being the biggest threats. Winds will decrease through the overnight
hours but should remain near the 15-20 mph range. Winds will pick up
Sunday morning as the upper and surface lows move across
southeastern Colorado/southwestern Kansas. With clear skies and
excellent mixing winds may possibly reach advisory criteria through
much of the day. These winds could present elevated to near critical
fire weather conditions as min RH values will be in the mid teens to
lower 20s. The fire weather threat will also depend on if/how much
rain falls tonight through tomorrow as more rain will equate to more
moist fuels.

The upper low will exit to our northeast by early Monday morning
with shortwave upper ridging moving in overhead giving us one nice
weather day before the next upper low encroaches upon the region
Tuesday. This next upper low looks to be more progressive and
further south than our Sunday low. Windy conditions look to be
possible once again Tuesday afternoon and evening as the upper low
moves just to our north. This will be followed by a cold front
Wednesday and will cool temps back into the upper 50s/60s for
Wednesday and Thursday. Temps look to rebound back into the 70s
going into the weekend as upper ridging moves across the region.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

07

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
206 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

TXZ021>044-132015-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
206 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorm chances will increase late this afternoon and continue
tonight with the potential to bring all severe hazards. Hail up to 2
inches in diameter along with wind gusts to 65 mph will be possible.
In addition, there will be a tornado threat, mainly north and east of
a line from Dimmitt, to Plainview, to Paducah. Heavy rain across the
far southeastern Texas Panhandle could also create localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline
Saturday, and these storms will also have the potential to become
severe. To the west of the dryline, generally west of the I-27
corridor during mid to late afternoon Saturday, elevated fire weather
conditions may develop due to the arrival of a dry air mass and
increasing west winds.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions may develop areawide
Sunday along with very strong winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about severe weather to the NWS while following local,
state, and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 PM CST FRI MAR 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             1 NE PETERSBURG         33.88N 101.58W
03/12/2021  E2.50 INCH       HALE               TX   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY WFO OUN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100166

MCONDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 PM CST FRI MAR 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     TORNADO          4 N RALLS               33.74N 101.38W
03/12/2021                   CROSBY             TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100167

MCONDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
716 PM CST FRI MAR 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNW MCADOO            33.77N 101.03W
03/12/2021  M64 MPH          DICKENS            TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100168

RCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
814 PM CST FRI MAR 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W AFTON               33.76N 100.85W
03/12/2021                   DICKENS            TX   STORM CHASER

            POWER LINES DOWN AND POWER POLES SNAPPED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100169

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
850 PM CST FRI MAR 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     HAIL             4 E DELWIN              33.88N 100.33W
03/12/2021  E1.75 INCH       COTTLE             TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100170

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
957 PM CST FRI MAR 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     TORNADO          15 SW PADUCAH           33.86N 100.49W
03/12/2021                   COTTLE             TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100171

JW