Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Chicago, IL

August 10, 2021Cook County, DuPage County, Will County, Illinois

NWS Chicago, IL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 10, 2021, 6:55 PM CDT for Cook County, DuPage County, Will County, Illinois. It was in force for 95 min. 6 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Aug 10, 2021, 6:55 PM CDT (23:55 UTC)
Expired
Aug 10, 2021, 8:30 PM CDT
In force
95 min
Issued by
NWS Chicago, IL
Area
Storm-based polygon
Damage threat
Considerable
Hail
1.0 in
Wind
70.0 mph

Counties Cook County, IL, DuPage County, IL, Will County, IL

The radar

The Chicago radar (KLOT), 31 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Aug 10, 7:35 PM CDTTSTM WND DMGOakbrook Terrace, ILPOWER LINE DOWNED NEAR MIDWEST ROAD AND BUTTERFIELD ROAD IN OAK BROOK. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
Aug 10, 7:48 PM CDTTSTM WND DMG1 Nnw Hometown, ILPUBLIC REPORT OF A 6 INCH DIAMETER LIMB DOWN BLOCKING 83RD AND CICERO IN OAK LAWN.
Aug 10, 7:49 PM CDTTSTM WND GST 603 Sw Midway Airport, ILCOOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTS 60 MPH GUST NEAR CHICAGO MIDWAY AIRPORT.
Aug 10, 7:50 PM CDTTSTM WND DMG1 Nw West Ridge - Chica, ILTREE DOWNED NEAR KEDZIE AVENUE AND TOUHY AVENUE IN CHICAGO. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
Aug 10, 7:53 PM CDTTSTM WND DMG2 Nnw Shorewood, ILREPORT OF DOWNED TREE BRANCHES ON SOUTH RIVER ROAD IN PLAINFIELD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
Aug 10, 7:55 PM CDTTSTM WND DMGRogers Park - Chicago, ILPHOTO SHARED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF LARGE BRANCH BLOCKING ROADWAY IN ROGERS PARK, CHICAGO. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 7 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 38 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Aug 10, 3:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 194 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2021-08-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3933 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2021-08-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -53 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3933 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-32 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
851 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-53 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-47 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

077 
WUUS53 KLOT 102355
SVRLOT
ILC031-043-197-110130-
/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0063.210810T2355Z-210811T0130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
655 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northern Will County in northeastern Illinois...
  DuPage County in northeastern Illinois...
  Cook County in northeastern Illinois...

* Until 830 PM CDT.

* At 654 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Maple Park to near Newark, moving east at 35 
  mph. This storm produced a 58 mph gust at Aurora Airport in Sugar 
  Grove.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
           tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
           roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
  Chicago, Aurora, Joliet, Naperville, Cicero, Hammond, Evanston,
  Bolingbrook, Skokie, Orland Park, Tinley Park, Oak Lawn, Berwyn,
  Wheaton, Oak Park, Downers Grove, Elmhurst, Lombard, Carol Stream
  and Romeoville.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4146 8825 4147 8825 4190 8826 4190 8792
      4204 8767 4198 8765 4196 8763 4196 8764
      4190 8762 4190 8760 4188 8762 4183 8760
      4173 8752 4146 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 266DEG 32KT 4184 8855 4150 8854 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

OEMC zones...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING.  
1...2...3...4...5...6...7...8...9...10...11...and 12.
 
$$

FRIEDLEIN
6 follow-up statements
331 
WWUS53 KLOT 110020
SVSLOT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
720 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

ILC031-043-197-110130-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-210811T0130Z/
Will IL-DuPage IL-Cook IL-
720 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WILL...DUPAGE AND COOK COUNTIES...

At 720 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line 
extending from Batavia to near Shorewood, moving east at 35 mph. The 
strongest winds are moving into southern DuPage County, as well as 
with another storm moving toward Joliet.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Chicago, Aurora, Joliet, Naperville, Cicero, Hammond, Evanston,
Bolingbrook, Skokie, Orland Park, Tinley Park, Oak Lawn, Berwyn,
Wheaton, Oak Park, Downers Grove, Elmhurst, Lombard, Carol Stream and
Romeoville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4146 8825 4147 8825 4190 8826 4190 8792
      4204 8767 4198 8765 4196 8763 4196 8764
      4190 8762 4190 8760 4188 8762 4183 8760
      4173 8752 4146 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 266DEG 32KT 4185 8828 4151 8828 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

OEMC zones...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING.  
1...2...3...4...5...6...7...8...9...10...11...and 12.
 
$$

FRIEDLEIN
354 
WWUS53 KLOT 110050
SVSLOT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
750 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

ILC031-043-197-110130-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-210811T0130Z/
Will IL-DuPage IL-Cook IL-
750 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WILL...DUPAGE AND COOK COUNTIES...

At 749 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line 
extending from Elmhurst to Lansing, moving east at 40 mph. 
Additional severe storms were near Plainfield moving east toward 
Romeoville and Bolingbrook.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Chicago, Aurora, Joliet, Naperville, Cicero, Hammond, Evanston,
Bolingbrook, Skokie, Orland Park, Tinley Park, Oak Lawn, Berwyn,
Wheaton, Oak Park, Downers Grove, Elmhurst, Lombard, Carol Stream and
Romeoville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4146 8825 4147 8825 4190 8826 4190 8792
      4204 8767 4198 8765 4196 8763 4196 8764
      4190 8762 4190 8760 4188 8762 4183 8760
      4173 8752 4146 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 256DEG 36KT 4189 8777 4158 8754 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

OEMC zones...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING.  
1...2...3...4...5...6...7...8...9...10...11...and 12.
 
$$

FRIEDLEIN
831 
WWUS53 KLOT 110101
SVSLOT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
801 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

ILC031-043-197-110130-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-210811T0130Z/
Will IL-DuPage IL-Cook IL-
801 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WILL...SOUTHERN DUPAGE AND COOK COUNTIES...

At 801 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line 
extending from Humboldt Park to Riverdale, moving east at 30 mph. 
These storms have a history of producing wind damage, including Oak 
Brook.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Chicago, Aurora, Joliet, Naperville, Cicero, Hammond, Evanston,
Bolingbrook, Skokie, Orland Park, Tinley Park, Oak Lawn, Berwyn,
Wheaton, Oak Park, Downers Grove, Elmhurst, Lombard, Romeoville and
Plainfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4146 8825 4147 8825 4184 8826 4190 8792
      4204 8767 4198 8765 4196 8763 4196 8764
      4190 8762 4190 8760 4188 8762 4183 8760
      4173 8752 4146 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 259DEG 26KT 4191 8771 4166 8764 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

OEMC zones...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING.  
1...2...3...4...5...6...7...8...9...10...11...and 12.
 
$$

FRIEDLEIN
563 
WWUS53 KLOT 110106
SVSLOT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
806 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

ILC031-043-197-110130-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-210811T0130Z/
Will IL-DuPage IL-Cook IL-
806 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WILL...SOUTHEASTERN DUPAGE AND COOK COUNTIES...

At 805 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line 
extending from Lincoln Park to near Riverdale, moving east at 30 
mph. These storms have a history of producing severe winds. These 
will be crossing the city of Chicago through 820 PM.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Chicago, Joliet, Naperville, Cicero, Hammond, Evanston, Bolingbrook,
Skokie, Orland Park, Tinley Park, Oak Lawn, Berwyn, Wheaton, Oak
Park, Downers Grove, Elmhurst, Lombard, Romeoville, Calumet City and
Woodridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4146 8809 4186 8813 4190 8792 4204 8767
      4198 8765 4196 8763 4196 8764 4191 8769
      4190 8762 4190 8760 4188 8762 4183 8760
      4173 8752 4146 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 258DEG 26KT 4192 8766 4167 8761 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

OEMC zones...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING.  
1...2...3...4...5...6...7...8...9...10...11...and 12.
 
$$

FRIEDLEIN
800 
WWUS53 KLOT 110114
SVSLOT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
814 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

ILC043-110123-
/O.CAN.KLOT.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-210811T0130Z/
DuPage IL-
814 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DUPAGE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Illinois.

LAT...LON 4146 8797 4161 8787 4187 8781 4191 8768
      4190 8762 4190 8760 4188 8762 4183 8760
      4173 8752 4146 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 267DEG 30KT 4192 8758 4165 8759 

$$

ILC031-197-110130-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-210811T0130Z/
Will IL-Cook IL-
814 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL WILL AND SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTIES...

At 813 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line 
extending from near Navy Pier Harvey, moving east at 35 mph. The 
most severe winds are now passing through southern parts of the city 
of Chicago. These storms do have a history of producing severe wind 
gusts and wind damage.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Chicago, Cicero, Hammond, Orland Park, Tinley Park, Oak Lawn, Berwyn,
Oak Park, Calumet City, Chicago Heights, West Town, Englewood,
Chicago Lawn, South Shore, Roseland, Bridgeport, Chicago Loop, South
Lawndale, Midway Airport and Austin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4146 8797 4161 8787 4187 8781 4191 8768
      4190 8762 4190 8760 4188 8762 4183 8760
      4173 8752 4146 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 267DEG 30KT 4192 8758 4165 8759 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

OEMC zones...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING.  
3...4...5...6...7...8...9...10...11...and 12.
 
$$

FRIEDLEIN
615 
WWUS53 KLOT 110123
SVSLOT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
823 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

ILC031-197-110133-
/O.EXP.KLOT.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-210811T0130Z/
Will IL-Cook IL-
823 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL WILL AND SOUTHEASTERN
COOK COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty 
winds over 35 mph are still likely through 845 PM in parts of 
central and southern Cook County.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Illinois. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until 200 AM CDT for northwestern Indiana.

LAT...LON 4146 8797 4161 8787 4187 8781 4191 8768
      4190 8762 4190 8760 4188 8762 4183 8760
      4173 8752 4146 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 266DEG 32KT 4193 8747 4166 8748 

$$

FRIEDLEIN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Chicago, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 10, 6:30 PM CDT, 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 10, 6:30 PM CDT, 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
630 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.SHORT TERM...
245 PM CDT

Through Wednesday Morning...

As anticipated, thunderstorms are erupting within two areas in
Iowa - the first near a subtle mesoscale convective vortex just
north of the IA/MO state line, and the second along a northwestern
wind shift in northeastern Iowa. The storms have been explosive
in growth, as evident by one storm producing 1" hail report within
15 minutes of the the first lightning strike. Such behavior is
not surprising given extreme instability in place, with surface
dew points in the lower 80s(!), surface temperatures in the upper
80s to lower 90s, and mid-level lapse rates of 8.3 K/km supporting
RAP-analyzed MLCAPE of 4500-5000 J/kg. While deep-layer shear will
remain less than we normally expect for organized severe weather
episodes, extreme instability often "picks up the slack."

Accordingly, any storm that develops today will almost certainly
become severe with a threat for all severe hazards (damaging hail,
destructive winds, and brief tornadoes). The greatest threat
appears to be damaging winds strong enough to uproot trees given
such extreme instability but weak shear (e.g. top-heavy cores as
well as potential to "grow upscale" via the amalgamation of beefy
cold pools). We already see signs of an organized line developing
in northeastern Iowa, which itself may turn east to southeast
into northern Illinois this evening. Finally, while low-level
shear will be less than yesterday, plentiful low-level moisture as
well as extreme low-level stretching potential will nevertheless
keep the threat for tornadoes present, albeit favoring brief
touchdowns rather than those that carry long tracks. The timeframe
of greatest concern remains 6 to 11 PM CDT.

Tonight through Wednesday morning, a stout 35-40 kt 850 mb low-
level jet will develop and point into eastern Iowa and northern
Illinois atop a convectively-generated outflow boundary. Depending
on where the boundary stalls tonight (e.g. where will LFCs be
breached?), regenerating thunderstorms are likely somewhere in the
Lower Great Lakes. Where storms to redevelop, concern is high
that an axis of hefty rainfall totals and hence flash flooding
will occur considering ample instability to take advantage of
PWATs > 2". In these situation, total rainfall amounts can easily
exceed 6 inches. Confidence in exactly where such rainfall totals
may occur, however, remains low. If you had to twist our arms,
we'd say areas along and south of a line from Dixon to Kankakee
have the highest threat for flash flooding tonight into Wednesday
morning (looking at midnight to 10 AM or so).

One final note - heat index values are currently 105 to 110
across the area. Take frequent breaks and stay hydrated if
outdoors.

Borchardt

&&

.LONG TERM...
334 PM CDT

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night...

The forecast for Wednesday is repeat of Tuesday, with concerns again
centering on heat and thunderstorms in the warm, moist and unsettled
weather pattern.

Following morning convection in the region, it appears the early to
mid afternoon will be a period of drying/subsidence ahead of
stronger mid level flow and an approaching cold front. Forecasted
925 mb temperatures and surface dewpoints look to be just a tad
lower than today. Having widespread 105-110 heat indices today, feel
like while we look to take a tip downward and may have lingering
cloud cover, the several days of uncomfortable weather support
another Heat Advisory Wednesday afternoon.

Concern will then shift to the longwave trough over the upper
Midwest that will steer a cold front toward the upper/mid
Mississippi Valley late Wednesday. Convective initiation is likely
along the front in another extremely buoyant airmass. It is still
unclear on the convective coverage, but it seems favorable that this
activity will again approach the local area late afternoon and
evening. This would support a higher end wind threat should factors
come together, and this will be a period to watch.

The front will not fly on through, therefore we will need to watch
for additional training thunderstorms Wednesday night which will
pose a flooding threat.

KMD

Thursday through Monday...Previous forecast discussion
unchanged...Capping will remain a limiting factor in convective
coverage on Thursday as larger-scale forcing will be confined to the
mid-level wave brushing the area. However, modest deep layer shear
up to 25 knots within a highly unstable environment conditional upon
breaking the cap warrants chance PoPs and a mention of severe storm
potential through most of this period. This is particularly the case
Thursday afternoon across the south half of the CWA.

South of the boundary on Thursday, very humid conditions will
persist, with afternoon heat index values possibly surpassing 100F.

Thursday night and Friday: A slow-moving cold front will shift south
across the forecast area, with convective potential at any given
time mainly tied to the location of the front. Guidance has slowed
the progression of the front, resulting in the introduction of low
chance of thunderstorms across the south half of the CWA through the
day (but especially the afternoon) on Friday. Drier profiles behind
Thursday's potential storms reduces afternoon heat concerns as well
as coverage of storms.

Saturday through Monday: High pressure will build across the region
through the weekend and into early next week, bringing dry weather
along with cooler and much less humid conditions.

Kluber

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...

630 PM...Primary forecast concern is thunderstorm chances this
evening, Wednesday morning and again Wednesday afternoon/evening.

A line of thunderstorms will move across northern IL and the
terminals over the next few hours. Wind gusts in the 30-40kt range
will be possible with these storms along with ifr cigs/vis with
heavy rain. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the
line of storms. Trends become uncertain for thunderstorms
overnight into Wednesday morning. Its possible that new convection
will develop further south across central IL tonight and may
remain generally south of the terminals into Wednesday morning.
Given low confidence, opted to maintain current prob mention for
now. A lull is expected from late morning through mid afternoon
and then there will be another period of possible thunderstorms
from late afternoon across northwest IL through mid evening across
the Chicago terminals. There seems to be a consensus from the
models for this time period and opted to include prob mention with
this forecast.

Other concerns will be gusty south/southwest winds this evening
and again Wednesday. Some mvfr cigs will be possible at times, but
confidence too low to include with this forecast. cms

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
     ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-
     ILZ039-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108 until 7 PM
     Tuesday.

     Heat Advisory...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
     ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-
     ILZ039-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108...noon
     Wednesday to 7 PM Wednesday.

IN...Heat Advisory...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 until 7 PM
     Tuesday.

     Heat Advisory...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...noon
     Wednesday to 7 PM Wednesday.

LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 10, 3:09 PM CDT, 3 hours 46 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
309 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-112015-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
309 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 /409 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central
Illinois...Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
     Limited Tornado risk.
     Limited hail risk...up to 1 inch in diameter.
     Elevated damaging wind risk...up to 70.
  Limited Flooding Risk.
  Significant Excessive Heat Risk.

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms developing across eastern Iowa and will track
across the area this evening. Each storm will be capable of
producing winds strong enough to uproot trees, damaging hail,
brief tornadoes, and torrential downpours. The primary
thunderstorm threat will be between 6 and 11 PM CDT.

Dangerous heat will continue this afternoon with heat related
illness probable after 30 minutes of being in direct sunlight.

Additional thunderstorms may develop after midnight and produce
torrential downpours with a threat for flash flooding. At this
point, it appears such renewed thunderstorms will be south of
Interstate 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday...
  Limited Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
  Elevated Excessive Heat Risk.
  Limited Non Thunderstorm Wind Risk.
Thursday...
  Limited Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
  Elevated Excessive Heat Risk.
Friday...
  Elevated Thunderstorm Risk.

DISCUSSION:

Warm and humid conditions will persist Wednesday and Thursday,
with afternoon heat indices possibly surpassing 105 F during the
afternoon.

Another round of strong to severe storms may occur Wednesday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotters may be needed this evening and overnight.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

 Moving toward the east at 40 mph.

LMZ740>745-112015-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
309 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
     Limited hail risk...up to 1 inch in diameter.
     Limited thunderstorm wind gust risk...up to 60 kt.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday...
  Hazardous conditions for small craft may occur.
  Limited Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Thursday...
  Limited Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Friday...
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

Borchardt

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 10, 6:33 PM CDT, 22 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
633 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNW ROCHELLE          41.94N 89.07W
08/10/2021  M58 MPH          OGLE               IL   PUBLIC

            PRIVATE WEATHER STATION REPORTED 58 MPH GUST
            IN NORTHWEST ROCHELLE.

&&

WSL
Local storm report, Aug 10, 6:41 PM CDT, 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
641 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N ROCKFORD            42.29N 89.09W
08/10/2021                   WINNEBAGO          IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWNED ON POWERLINES ALONG AUBURN
            STREET NEAR RIDGE AVENUE. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

WSL
Local storm report, Aug 10, 6:42 PM CDT, 13 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
642 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROCKFORD AIRPORT        42.20N 89.10W
08/10/2021  M55 MPH          WINNEBAGO          IL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            RECORDED AT THE ROCKFORD ASOS.

&&

LBC
Local storm report, Aug 10, 6:45 PM CDT, 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
645 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW ROCHELLE          41.89N 89.08W
08/10/2021  E56 MPH          OGLE               IL   AWOS

            RECORDED AT THE ROCHELLE AWOS.

&&

LBC
Local storm report, Aug 10, 6:46 PM CDT, 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
646 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCKTON                 42.46N 89.07W
08/10/2021                   WINNEBAGO          IL   PUBLIC

            PHOTO SHARED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWS LARGE
            BRANCH DOWNED IN ROCKTON AREA.

&&

WSL
Local storm report, Aug 10, 6:51 PM CDT, 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
651 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             2 N BELVIDERE           42.29N 88.85W
08/10/2021  E0.88 INCH       BOONE              IL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA WINNEBAGO EMA.

&&

LBC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Chicago, IL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 9, 7:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTCook, DuPage42 min
Aug 9, 8:21 PM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLOT114 min
Aug 9, 9:19 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLOTGrundy26 min
Aug 9, 9:30 PM CDTTornado WarningLOTKankakee, Will45 min
Aug 9, 10:06 PM CDTTornado WarningLOTWill54 min
Aug 9, 10:12 PM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLOT2 hr
Aug 10, 3:07 PM CDTHeat AdvisoryLOTBoone, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Ford, Grundy and 12 more28 hr
Aug 10, 5:21 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLOTLee, Ogle, Winnebago54 min
Aug 10, 5:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTLee, Ogle, Winnebago81 min
Aug 10, 6:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTDeKalb, LaSalle, Lee65 min
Aug 10, 6:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTBoone, DeKalb, McHenry74 min
Aug 10, 6:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatLOTCook, DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry86 min
Aug 10, 6:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTGrundy, Kane, Kendall82 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2021Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.