River Flood Warning 33, NWS Chicago, IL

168 
WGUS83 KLOT 291409
FLSLOT

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago IL
909 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Indiana...

  Kankakee River at Shelby affecting Lake IN and Newton Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These forecasts are based on observed precipitation as well as 
forecast precipitation 48 hours into the future. Changes to the 
rainfall forecast, or any additional rainfall after 48 hours, may 
cause changes to these river forecasts.

A Flood Warning means water levels above flood stage are imminent or 
may already be occurring. Persons along rivers and streams in the 
warned area should take immediate precautions to protect life and 
property.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/Chicago and 
water.weather.gov

The next statement is expected by 1000 PM CDT this evening.

&&


INC089-111-300815-
/O.EXT.KLOT.FL.W.0033.211030T0000Z-211103T0600Z/
/SLBI3.1.ER.211030T0000Z.211030T1800Z.211103T0000Z.UU/
909 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Wednesday 
morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  Kankakee River from Near I-65 and De Motte downstream to IL/IN 
  state line, including the Shelby gauge.
* From this evening to early Wednesday morning.
* At 8:45 AM CDT Friday the stage was 10.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this 
  evening to a crest of 10.8 feet early Saturday afternoon. It will 
  then fall below flood stage Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet, Water overflows low-lying river banks along 
  Bluegrass Road and in Wildwood Estates east of Sumava Resorts.


&&

LAT...LON 4122 8756 4128 8728 4117 8725 4111 8753

$$

Petr

783 
WGUS83 KLOT 300029
FLSLOT

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago IL
729 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Indiana...

  Kankakee River at Shelby affecting Lake IN and Newton Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These forecasts are based on observed precipitation as well as 
forecast precipitation 48 hours into the future. Changes to the 
rainfall forecast, or any additional rainfall after 48 hours, may 
cause changes to these river forecasts.

A Flood Warning means water levels above flood stage are imminent or 
may already be occurring. Persons along rivers and streams in the 
warned area should take immediate precautions to protect life and 
property.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/Chicago and 
water.weather.gov

The next statement is expected by 11AM CDT Saturday morning.

&&


INC089-111-301830-
/O.EXT.KLOT.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-211103T0000Z/
/SLBI3.1.ER.211030T0600Z.211030T1800Z.211102T1800Z.UU/
729 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Tuesday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  Kankakee River from Near I-65 and De Motte downstream to IL/IN 
  state line, including the Shelby gauge.
* Until Tuesday evening.
* At 6:45 PM CDT Friday the stage was 10.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage just 
  after midnight tonight to a crest of 10.7 feet early tomorrow 
  afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early Tuesday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet, Water overflows low-lying river banks along 
  Bluegrass Road and in Wildwood Estates east of Sumava Resorts.


&&

LAT...LON 4122 8756 4128 8728 4117 8725 4111 8753

$$

Ratzer

451 
WGUS83 KLOT 301524
FLSLOT

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago IL
1024 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Indiana...

  Kankakee River at Shelby affecting Lake IN and Newton Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These forecasts are based on observed precipitation as well as 
forecast precipitation 48 hours into the future. Changes to the 
rainfall forecast, or any additional rainfall after 48 hours, may 
cause changes to these river forecasts.

A Flood Warning means water levels above flood stage are imminent or 
may already be occurring. Persons along rivers and streams in the 
warned area should take immediate precautions to protect life and 
property.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/Chicago and 
water.weather.gov

&&


INC089-111-310930-
/O.EXT.KLOT.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-211103T0600Z/
/SLBI3.1.ER.211030T0552Z.211031T1200Z.211103T0000Z.UU/
1024 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Wednesday 
morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  Kankakee River from Near I-65 and De Motte downstream to IL/IN 
  state line, including the Shelby gauge.
* Until early Wednesday morning.
* At 9:45 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 10.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 10.9 feet 
  Sunday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Tuesday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet, Water overflows low-lying river banks along 
  Bluegrass Road and in Wildwood Estates east of Sumava Resorts.


&&

LAT...LON 4122 8756 4128 8728 4117 8725 4111 8753

$$

Petr

778 
WGUS83 KLOT 310154
FLSLOT

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago IL
854 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Indiana...

  Kankakee River at Shelby affecting Lake IN and Newton Counties.

F

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These forecasts are based on observed precipitation as well as 
forecast precipitation 48 hours into the future. Changes to the 
rainfall forecast, or any additional rainfall after 48 hours, may 
cause changes to these river forecasts.

A Flood Warning means water levels above flood stage are imminent or 
may already be occurring. Persons along rivers and streams in the 
warned area should take immediate precautions to protect life and 
property.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/Chicago and 
water.weather.gov

&&


INC089-111-312000-
/O.CON.KLOT.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-211103T0600Z/
/SLBI3.1.ER.211030T0552Z.211031T1800Z.211103T0000Z.UU/
854 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  Kankakee River from Near I-65 and De Motte downstream to IL/IN 
  state line, including the Shelby gauge.
* Until early Wednesday morning.
* At 7:45 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 10.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 11.0 feet 
  early tomorrow afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage 
  Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet, Water overflows low-lying river banks along 
  Bluegrass Road and in Wildwood Estates east of Sumava Resorts.


&&

LAT...LON 4122 8756 4128 8728 4117 8725 4111 8753

$$

Ratzer

911 
WGUS83 KLOT 311506
FLSLOT

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago IL
1006 AM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Indiana...

  Kankakee River at Shelby affecting Lake IN and Newton Counties.

For the Kankakee River...including Dunns Bridge, Shelby, Momence, 
Wilmington...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These forecasts are based on observed precipitation as well as 
forecast precipitation 48 hours into the future. Changes to the 
rainfall forecast, or any additional rainfall after 48 hours, may 
cause changes to these river forecasts.

A Flood Warning means water levels above flood stage are imminent or 
may already be occurring. Persons along rivers and streams in the 
warned area should take immediate precautions to protect life and 
property.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/Chicago and 
water.weather.gov

The next statement is expected around 400 AM CDT late tonight.

&&


INC089-111-010915-
/O.EXT.KLOT.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-211103T0000Z/
/SLBI3.1.ER.211030T0552Z.211031T1800Z.211102T1800Z.UU/
1006 AM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Tuesday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  Kankakee River from Near I-65 and De Motte downstream to IL/IN 
  state line, including the Shelby gauge.
* Until Tuesday evening.
* At 9:45 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 10.9 feet 
  this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early Tuesday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet, Water overflows low-lying river banks along 
  Bluegrass Road and in Wildwood Estates east of Sumava Resorts.


&&

LAT...LON 4122 8756 4128 8728 4117 8725 4111 8753

$$

BKL

068 
WGUS83 KLOT 010101
FLSLOT

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago IL
801 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Indiana...

  Kankakee River at Shelby affecting Lake IN and Newton Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These forecasts are based on observed precipitation as well as 
forecast precipitation 48 hours into the future. Changes to the 
rainfall forecast, or any additional rainfall after 48 hours, may 
cause changes to these river forecasts.

A Flood Warning means water levels above flood stage are imminent or 
may already be occurring. Persons along rivers and streams in the 
warned area should take immediate precautions to protect life and 
property.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/Chicago and 
water.weather.gov

&&


INC089-111-011915-
/O.CON.KLOT.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-211103T0000Z/
/SLBI3.1.ER.211030T0552Z.211031T2345Z.211102T1800Z.UU/
801 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  Kankakee River from Near I-65 and De Motte downstream to IL/IN 
  state line, including the Shelby gauge.
* Until Tuesday evening.
* At 6:45 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage early 
  Tuesday afternoon and continue falling.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet, Water overflows low-lying river banks along 
  Bluegrass Road and in Wildwood Estates east of Sumava Resorts.


&&

LAT...LON 4122 8756 4128 8728 4117 8725 4111 8753

$$

Ratzer

997 
WGUS83 KLOT 011500
FLSLOT

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago IL
1000 AM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Indiana...

  Kankakee River at Shelby affecting Lake IN and Newton Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These forecasts are based on observed precipitation as well as 
forecast precipitation 48 hours into the future. Changes to the 
rainfall forecast, or any additional rainfall after 48 hours, may 
cause changes to these river forecasts.

A Flood Warning means water levels above flood stage are imminent or 
may already be occurring. Persons along rivers and streams in the 
warned area should take immediate precautions to protect life and 
property.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/Chicago and 
water.weather.gov

&&


INC089-111-020900-
/O.EXT.KLOT.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-211102T1800Z/
/SLBI3.1.ER.211030T0552Z.211031T2345Z.211102T1200Z.UU/
1000 AM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early tomorrow 
afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  Kankakee River from Near I-65 and De Motte downstream to IL/IN 
  state line, including the Shelby gauge.
* Until early tomorrow afternoon.
* At 8:45 AM CDT Monday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow morning and continue falling.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet, Water overflows low-lying river banks along 
  Bluegrass Road and in Wildwood Estates east of Sumava Resorts.


&&

LAT...LON 4122 8756 4128 8728 4117 8725 4111 8753

$$

LOT

576 
WGUS83 KLOT 020117
FLSLOT

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago IL
817 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Indiana...

  Kankakee River at Shelby affecting Lake IN and Newton Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These forecasts are based on observed precipitation as well as 
forecast precipitation 48 hours into the future. Changes to the 
rainfall forecast, or any additional rainfall after 48 hours, may 
cause changes to these river forecasts.

A Flood Warning means water levels above flood stage are imminent or 
may already be occurring. Persons along rivers and streams in the 
warned area should take immediate precautions to protect life and 
property.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/Chicago and 
water.weather.gov

&&


INC089-111-021800-
/O.CON.KLOT.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-211102T1800Z/
/SLBI3.1.ER.211030T0552Z.211031T2345Z.211102T1200Z.UU/
817 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  Kankakee River from Near I-65 and De Motte downstream to IL/IN 
  state line, including the Shelby gauge.
* Until early tomorrow afternoon.
* At 8:45 AM CDT Monday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow morning and continue falling.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet, Water overflows low-lying river banks along 
  Bluegrass Road and in Wildwood Estates east of Sumava Resorts.


&&

LAT...LON 4122 8756 4128 8728 4117 8725 4111 8753

$$

Ratzer

268 
WGUS83 KLOT 020139
FLSLOT

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago IL
839 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Indiana...

  Kankakee River at Shelby affecting Lake IN and Newton Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These forecasts are based on observed precipitation as well as 
forecast precipitation 48 hours into the future. Changes to the 
rainfall forecast, or any additional rainfall after 48 hours, may 
cause changes to these river forecasts.

A Flood Warning means water levels above flood stage are imminent or 
may already be occurring. Persons along rivers and streams in the 
warned area should take immediate precautions to protect life and 
property.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/Chicago and 
water.weather.gov

&&


INC089-111-021800-
/O.CON.KLOT.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-211102T1800Z/
/SLBI3.1.ER.211030T0552Z.211031T2345Z.211102T1200Z.UU/
839 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  Kankakee River from Near I-65 and De Motte downstream to IL/IN 
  state line, including the Shelby gauge.
* Until early tomorrow afternoon.
* At 8:45 AM CDT Monday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow morning and continue falling.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet, Water overflows low-lying river banks along 
  Bluegrass Road and in Wildwood Estates east of Sumava Resorts.


&&

LAT...LON 4122 8756 4128 8728 4117 8725 4111 8753

$$

Ratzer

241 
WGUS83 KLOT 021356
FLSLOT

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago IL
856 AM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Indiana...

  Kankakee River at Shelby affecting Lake IN and Newton Counties.

For the Kankakee River...including Dunns Bridge, Shelby, Momence, 
Wilmington...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These forecasts are based on observed precipitation as well as 
forecast precipitation 48 hours into the future. Changes to the 
rainfall forecast, or any additional rainfall after 48 hours, may 
cause changes to these river forecasts.

A Flood Warning means water levels above flood stage are imminent or 
may already be occurring. Persons along rivers and streams in the 
warned area should take immediate precautions to protect life and 
property.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/Chicago and 
water.weather.gov

The next statement is expected around 300 AM CDT late tonight.

&&


INC089-111-030800-
/O.EXT.KLOT.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-211103T1200Z/
/SLBI3.1.ER.211030T0552Z.211031T2345Z.211103T0600Z.UU/
856 AM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  Kankakee River from Near I-65 and De Motte downstream to IL/IN 
  state line, including the Shelby gauge.
* Until tomorrow morning.
* At 7:45 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 10.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage just 
  after midnight tonight and continue falling to 7.2 feet Tuesday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet, Water overflows low-lying river banks along 
  Bluegrass Road and in Wildwood Estates east of Sumava Resorts.


&&

LAT...LON 4122 8756 4128 8728 4117 8725 4111 8753

$$

Doom

146 
WGUS83 KLOT 030205
FLSLOT

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago IL
905 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Indiana...

  Kankakee River at Shelby affecting Lake IN and Newton Counties.

For the Kankakee River...including Shelby...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These forecasts are based on observed precipitation as well as 
forecast precipitation 48 hours into the future. Changes to the 
rainfall forecast, or any additional rainfall after 48 hours, may 
cause changes to these river forecasts.

A Flood Warning means water levels above flood stage are imminent or 
may already be occurring. Persons along rivers and streams in the 
warned area should take immediate precautions to protect life and 
property.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/Chicago and 
water.weather.gov

The next statement is expected around 700 AM CDT Wednesday morning.

&&


INC089-111-031200-
/O.CON.KLOT.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-211103T1200Z/
/SLBI3.1.ER.211030T0552Z.211031T2345Z.211103T0600Z.UU/
905 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  Kankakee River from Near I-65 and De Motte downstream to IL/IN 
  state line, including the Shelby gauge.
* Until tomorrow morning.
* At 8:45 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 10.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage just 
  after midnight tonight and continue falling to 7.2 feet Tuesday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet, Water overflows low-lying river banks along 
  Bluegrass Road and in Wildwood Estates east of Sumava Resorts.


&&

LAT...LON 4122 8756 4128 8728 4117 8725 4111 8753

$$

Birk

628 
WGUS83 KLOT 031219
FLSLOT

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago IL
719 AM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is expired for the following rivers in 
Indiana...

  Kankakee River at Shelby affecting Lake IN and Newton Counties.

INC089-111-031330-
/O.EXP.KLOT.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-211103T1200Z/
/SLBI3.1.ER.211030T0552Z.211031T2345Z.211103T0600Z.UU/
719 AM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...The Flood Warning for Kankakee River from Near I-65 and De Motte 
downstream to IL/IN state line, including the Shelby gauge has 
expired...

The Flood Warning has expired for
  Kankakee River from Near I-65 and De Motte downstream to IL/IN 
  state line, including the Shelby gauge.
* At 6:45 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 10.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 7.2 feet next week.


&&

LAT...LON 4122 8756 4128 8728 4117 8725 4111 8753

$$

Carlaw

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
644 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.SHORT TERM...
315 PM CDT

Through Friday night...

A 992 mb surface low centered over southern Missouri continues
its slow movement towards the east-northeast, with light to
moderate rain rotating around it, especially towards its northeast
where dynamic support is stronger (upper level jet support and
diffluence). Although surface winds are from the east, winds
become more southeasterly with height, and that is helping move
rain over the area. Rain amounts have mainly been light so far,
and upstream too, though a couple reports around one half inch in
eastern Illinois. Showers will continue late this afternoon into
this evening. There may be some diminishing and light fog in the
far south later tonight as the low shifts into the Lower Ohio
River Valley, but otherwise rain showers are likely to prevail.
This looks to be even a steady rain over parts of northeast
Illinois later tonight and continuing into Friday morning, where
lake enhancement will be a factor due to onshore flow and
relatively warm lake temperatures inducing lake-effect
instability. This could result in some widespread slower
conditions during the Friday morning commute due to the widespread
rain.

As the low moves closer, winds will pick up due to the tightening
surface gradient. Gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will be possible
starting mid morning and into Friday evening, especially near the
lake front. This strong northeasterly flow will create high waves
along the Lake Michigan shore of Illinois especially, with regular
wave heights on Friday as high as 10-11 ft tonight. This is less
than the waves with the storm earlier this week, however still may
end up resulting in spotty issues of minor flooding or spray from
the lake.

Rain continues throughout Friday and into Friday night but likely
focuses more in the eastern CWA. With still continued lake
enhancement, it is expected that far northeast Illinois, including
the Chicago metro, will see the most rain with this event. We
have inched up our forecast rainfall amounts with some locations
receiving over 1.25 inches looking more likely. Cannot rule out 2
or even a little over, considering the 12Z HREF probability
matched mean (PMM) guidance indicates that for an event total in
northeast Illinois. This is likely not to be enough for flooding,
but may present some ponding issues during the morning commute.

Cloud cover will keep temperatures fairly steady over the next 36
hours or so, with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 50s,
including lows Friday morning. Winds will become more northerly by
Saturday morning, so although we'll still have widespread cloud
cover, temperatures will be a bit cooler Saturday morning, with
lows in the upper 40s/near 50.

BKL/MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
315 PM CDT

Saturday through Wednesday...

The key messages in the extended period include 1. pleasant
weekend weather in store for Halloween and 2. consensus that we
are entering a cooler than normal pattern bringing more widespread
sub-freezing temps to the area and possibly our first snowflakes
of the season.

The closed upper low responsible for our late week rain showers
will be well on its way east of the area by Saturday. North
northeast winds will persist on the back side of the low, however,
which could bring some lingering lake effect showers through the
morning hours across northeast Illinois near the lake then
trending east into northwest Indiana over the afternoon. A cold
front does push through the area sometime Sunday morning which
will bring some breezy northwest winds and limit warming only
into the mid-upper 50s in the afternoon. Dry conditions are still
on tap on Sunday which should make for a pleasant Halloween.
Temperatures do begin to cool down after sunset with mid-upper 40s
in the city and the lower 40s in the suburbs expected in the
evening for Trick-or-Treat time.

Beyond the weekend, cold air from Canada continues to dive
southward across the Upper Midwest. This will bring below normal
temperatures across the area for the remainder of the work week
with high temperatures only in the 40s. In turn, temperatures
overnight will begin to dip into the lower 30s with more
widespread sub-freezing temps becoming increasingly likely,
especially across more rural areas outside of the metro later in
the week. As to be expected when temperatures dip below freezing,
we could very well see our first snowflakes of the season. At
this time there remains some variability and thus uncertainty with
the timing and placement of various mid-level shortwaves rounding
the base of the upper trough, so for now will simply maintain
slight chances for light rain/snow off and on during the Monday
through Thursday period.

Petr

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...

Aviation Forecast Concerns:

* IFR ceilings through the period, with some potential for LIFR
  300-400 foot later tonight/early Friday morning. Visibility high
  end IFR to MVFR in showers/drizzle/fog much of the period as
  well.

* Northeast winds gradually back north-northeast and increase and
  become gusty near 30 kts Friday.

Surface low pressure was located near the confluence of the Ohio
and Mississippi rivers early this evening. This disturbance will
continue to track slowly to the east-northeast across the Ohio
Valley through Friday. Cyclonic (counter-clockwise) flow around
the northern periphery of the low will continue to pull moisture
across the forecast area through the period, resulting in fairly
persistent showers/drizzle (and resulting low clouds/vis) for the
terminals through much of the TAF period. Extensive MVFR ceilings
were already in place across northern IL/IN early this evening,
with pockets of IFR and visibility 3-4SM in spots in rain and
light fog. Expectation is for IFR ceilings to expand early this
evening, and gradually lower overnight. Some guidance continues to
indicate the potential for a period of patchy 300-400' LIFR
ceilings across the Chicago terminals after midnight.

IFR conditions, showers and light fog are expected to persist
through the day and into the evening Friday for the Chicago
terminals, while conditions likely improve a bit farther to the
west at KRFD by later afternoon. Otherwise, east-northeast winds
will back to northeast overnight and to north-northeast Friday as
the low passes to the south of the area. Tightening of the
pressure gradient and cooler air aloft supporting better low level
mixing over Lake Michigan will result in winds increasing near 20
kts with gusts near 30 kts especially later in the
afternoon/evening.

Ratzer

&&

.MARINE...
315 PM CDT

Another strong low pressure system will move eastward across the
middle of the country over the next 36 hours, though this one
further south than the earlier week one. The pressure gradient
and lower atmospheric winds will be less over the area with this.
With instability still over the lake, the potential for some 35 kt
gales on Friday is there, namely into the Illinois nearshore.
Confidence is high that if a gale ends up occurring, it would not
exceed a mid 30 kt gale.

MTF

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...IL nearshore waters until 7 PM Saturday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...1 AM Friday to 7
     PM Saturday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
332 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-292045-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
332 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 /432 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central
Illinois...Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

  No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Friday...
  Limited Lakeshore Flood Risk.
  Limited Non Thunderstorm Wind Risk.
Sunday night through Wednesday...
  Elevated to Significant Freeze Risk.

DISCUSSION:

Northeast winds regularly gusting to 35 to near 40 mph along the
Lake Michigan shore of Illinois throughout Friday will build
waves to 8 to 11 ft. Spotty minor lakeshore flooding is possible
along the Illinois and far northwest Indiana shore.

Sunday night through Wednesday will feature periods of subfreezing
temperatures for outlying northern Illinois.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

LMZ740>745-292045-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
332 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Hazardous conditions for small craft.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Friday and Saturday...
  Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.

Petr/MTF

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