Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
123 PM PDT Sun Aug 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms are expected again today
with some showers producing locally moderate to heavy rainfall at
times. A cooling trend continues, with high temperatures in the
70s and 80s this evening. More showers and thunderstorms in
eastern Nevada on Monday afternoon, but conditions generally dry
out with a warming trend beginning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday.

Moisture continues to be prevalent across the region as model
agreement sees upper-level ridging extend the closed upper-level
high to the north and allow for southerly flow to advect moisture
up to us. Look for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to
once again be present this afternoon and evening with the
moisture. Activity could edge slightly more towards the severe
side as SPC places portions of the eastern Nevada border under the
marginal risk for today where potential gusty winds and small
hail could occur this afternoon. Latest models look to agree as
they place decent CAPE values as clear west as Eureka county with
small bands of wind shear present over White Pine county.
Meanwhile, the heavier moisture will continue to bring pockets of
moderate to heavy rain around the region continuing the threat for
flash flooding. A Flash Flood watch continues for all counties
but Humboldt county until 8 pm tonight. Look for activity to
slowly to taper off in the late evening with a few showers
possibly lingering into the overnight.

For Monday, models see a short-wave trough make its way east from
the California coast. This propagation will in turn dampen the
high and cut of the flow of moisture into our region. Activity
will still be present Monday afternoon, but showers and
thunderstorms will be more concentrated along the eastern Nevada
boarder. The only exception to this will be stray isolated dry
thunderstorms that manage to find a foothold on enough residual
moisture from the activity over the weekend. Tuesday will look to
completely dry us out as models see the upper-level high remain
stationary over our region. Temperatures will warm back up Monday
and Tuesday as we see afternoon temperatures are expected to be
back in the 80s to 90s. Overnight temperatures are expected to
remain in the 50s to 60s.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Sunday.

High pressure is progged to be centered over southern Nevada
Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is some moisture remaining to
the north along the border with Idaho, and that will lead to
isolated storms north of the I-80 corridor. Otherwise, quiet
weather will persist with highs warming into the mid 90s to low
100s in the north and upper 80s to mid 90s in the central parts of
the forecast area. Quiet conditions will remain during the
overnight with lows in the 50s to maybe the low 60s.

By Thursday the ridge axis gets depressed south and east as an
upper level trough moves across the Oregon/Washington area to the
north. This will bring breezy winds and slightly cooler
temperatures to the region. There could be some fire weather
concerns as wind/RH will be near critical levels. Highs will be in
the 80s and 90s. Look for benign weather over the night with lows
in the 50s and 60s.

Friday through Sunday. West to east flow will keep a lid on
weather. Look for highs in the 80s and 90s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the early
evening. Main threats continue to be heavy rain, reductions to
VSBY and CIGs. Smoke and haze still lingers across northern
sites, but any impacts are expected to be minimal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Latest satellite and radar imagery have already
begun to see the start of activity with cells beginning to spread
along the eastern border of Nevada. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to produce wetting rains this afternoon and evening
across much of the region, the exception is fire zone 437 where
less moisture resides. Lightning may still occur outside of rain
shafts that could spark fires, but the high humidity values will
limit fire spread. Outside of this look for erratic and gusty
winds to be the norm this afternoon for zones 425, 426, 427, and
470 where recent high resolution models have suggest the potential
for much stronger storms.

Drier air should begin to spread from the west Monday as models
see the monsoonal flow cut off from our region. Activity for
Monday will be more concentrated to 470 and 425, but isolated dry
thunderstorms remain possible in areas where residual moisture
still lingers. Dry conditions look to prevail past Monday with
some potential isolated activity along the eastern Nevada border.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for Northeastern
Nye County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander County and
Northern Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County-Ruby Mountains
and East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County-Southeastern
Elko County-Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-
Southwest Elko County-White Pine County.

&&

94/86/86/94

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
329 PM PDT Sun Aug 1 2021

NVZ033-039-012300-
Southeastern Elko County NV-South Central Elko County NV-
329 PM PDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM PDT...

At 329 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of West Wendover, moving north at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
West Wendover and Silver Zone Pass.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4065 11429 4069 11445 4099 11446 4086 11404
      4080 11404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 201DEG 28KT 4076 11434

86