Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
307 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Anomalously moist air mass bring showers and
thunderstorms. The strongest storms could bring heavy rain that
last an hour with 1-2 inches of rain with potential for flash
flooding through Sunday evening. Drier weather returns by Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday evening.
Deep layered moisture continues to be drawn northward over
eastern Nevada with a mesolow over the Owyhee desert. Convection
is firing over White Pine County and this trend will expand over
the northeast NV quadrant with intense rainfall expected from
isolated cores. Noted that Mather RAWS has exceeded one-half inch
rain /> 0.50/ earlier today, indicative of the moist air mass and
relatively high surface humidity. Morning sounding had 1.3 inches
of precipitable water, which is near the upper limit for Elko. On
Friday, the strongest storms had cloud top temperatures around -65C
and similar occurrence is possible again later this afternoon.
Heavy rainers will wane after sunset, but some stratiform light
rain is possible overnight but isolated lightning may still occur.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 686 provides additional
details on converging convection bands that may occur late this
afternoon/early evening time frame. No changes to the Flash Flood
Watch.

Upper level disturbance near the SoCal and Baja California coast
lifts over Nevada on Sunday. This should enhance upper level
divergence during the peak heating hours over northern Nevada.
With the air mass showing little day to day change, additional
heavy rainers are expected.

Monday will be the transition day as the upper level disturbance
shifts into Utah, drier westerly flow follows behind it. The air
mass turns drier as the day progresses. The best convective
potential exist along the eastern Nevada border and the northeast
Nevada corner. More sun over the western portion of Nevada means
rebounding temperatures and a return to the 90s.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through next Saturday.

Monday night into Tuesday a ridge of high pressure remains over
Nevada, with an offshore low off the northern California coast.
Southerly to southwesterly flow may still exist Tuesday, but the
monsoonal rich moisture has shifted east of the state and has
been replaced with much drier air, which will continue to filter
its way into the state nixing the chances of thunderstorms. There
is a very slight chance of isolated thunderstorms in parts of
extreme northern Nevada, towards the Idaho boarder, in Elko county
Wednesday afternoon. The PWAT values of 0.45-0.65" though hint at
the storms be dry in nature.

As the offshore low gets pulled into a bigger trough in the
Pacific Northwest, zonal flow will result. This will continue to
feed dry air into the area through the rest of the week.

Temperatures look to be generally in the mid 80s to mid 90s, with
portions of western Nevada including Humboldt county seeing upper
90s to near 100 on Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will generally be
in the 50s and 60s through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Numerous showers with thunderstorms will be prevalent this
evening, but diminishing after sunset or 03Z. Localized cells and
+TSRA will lower VIS and CIGS to MVFR conditions. The possibility
of this occurring at KEKO, KBAM, and KELY for a brief time is
around 20 percent. TSRA will be a possibility at KWMC and KTPH as
well. Heavy rain shafts will obscure higher terrain. Scattered
showers will linger through the night and Sunday morning. Similar
conditions are expected on Sunday with the potential for heavy
rains and lower ceilings/visibility.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorms will produce wetting rains this afteroon and again
Sunday afternoon across much of the region, the possible exception
is fire zone 437 where less moisture resides. Lightning may still
occur outside of rain shafts that could spark fires, but the high
humidity values will limit fire spread. These conditions will
persist through Sunday.

Drier air spreads west to east Monday, limiting convection
potential to eastern Nevada. Wetting rain potential will be
significantly reduced. Beyond Monday, dry weather generally
prevails except for isolated afternoon storms near the eastern
Nevada border.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Northeastern Nye
County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander County and Northern
Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County-Ruby Mountains and East
Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County-Southeastern Elko
County-Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-
Southwest Elko County-White Pine County.

&&

88/91/88/88

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