Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
313 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...A weak upper level
vort lobe rotating around a broad upper level ridge dominating the
Southern Plains will slowly push to the south and west across the
forecast area through Monday. This upper level vort lobe will
bring slightly higher omega values and overall upper level lift to
the area, and support increased convective chances each day. The
convection will be entirely diurnal with convective activity
peaking over land in the late afternoon and early evening hours
when the convective temperature is surpassed and overall
instability is maximized. Some drier air in the mid-levels will be
supportive of gusty winds from the deepest convection, but
conditions are not supportive of severe thunderstorm development
through Monday. Temperatures will be near to slightly warmer than
average through the period with highs in the low to mid 90s and
lows in the mid to upper 70s. A few locations will likely only
cool into the upper 80s. Dewpoints will remain fairly high in the
mid to upper 70s, and this will allow for heat index values to
average around 105 to 110 degrees from late morning through the
afternoon hours both Sunday and Monday. A pre-emptive heat
advisory will be issued for portions of the area tomorrow with a
focus on the Northshore and the River Parishes.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Friday Night)...The prevailing deep
layer northerly flow pattern in the mid and upper levels will
persist through the end of the week, and a trough axis deepening
over the eastern seaboard will drive a weak backdoor front into
the area on Tuesday. This front should stall along the Gulf coast
on Wednesday and then slowly dissipate through the remainder of
the forecast period. As this boundary moves into the area,
accompanying deeper moisture will also advect in from the north
and push precipitable water values into the 2.25 to 2.5 inch
range. These values are well above the average of around 2 inches
this time of year, and will support greater convective activity
and overall convective coverage from Wednesday through Friday.
The convection will remain largely diurnal with convection peaking
over land in the afternoon hours and peaking over the offshore
waters during the late overnight and early morning hours.
Temperatures will be near average with highs in the low to mid 90s
and lows in the 70s through the period. Heat index values of
around 105 degrees can be expected each day before convection
develops and begins to cool temperatures down.

&&

.AVIATION...The 00z TAF package will likely show prevailing VFR
conditions at all of the terminals for much of the period. Some
widely scattered convection could produce brief periods of IFR
visibilities if storms move directly over a terminal, and the peak
period for these higher convective chances will be after 18z
tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...Very benign conditions are expected across the coastal
waters through next week. Light winds of 10 knots or less and seas
of 3 feet or less are forecast through the period. Scattered
thunderstorm activity each day will be the primary concern. These
storms could produce brief periods of gusty winds, choppy seas,
and possibly a few waterspouts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  94  75  93 /  30  50  30  50
BTR  76  95  77  95 /  20  50  30  60
ASD  77  94  76  94 /  30  50  30  40
MSY  79  93  79  93 /  30  50  30  40
GPT  78  90  77  91 /  30  40  20  30
PQL  76  92  75  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-046>050-
     056>059-065.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>050-056>059-065-071-072-075-076.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068-069.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ068>071-077.

GM...None.
&&

PG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
244 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

LAZ075-MSZ077-242015-
Northwest St. Tammany-Pearl River-
244 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN PEARL RIVER COUNTIES...

At 243 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bush, or 12
miles west of Picayune, moving south at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Abita Springs.

This includes Interstate 12 near mile marker 66.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3061 8998 3059 8977 3039 8973 3041 9006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 008DEG 7KT 3053 8989

MSW

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>