Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
422 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday Night)...
Everything being looked at this morning shows a similar show to
yesterday with the exception of severe wx numbers not being as high
but still high enough to produce some strong to severe thunderstorms
with the main issues being wind and hail and lots of water falling.
With the current fcast, additional rainfall totals through Friday
night would be from 3 to 5 inches with isoalted higher amounts.
Since soils are quite saturated, this just becomes runoff and
flooding is likely in areas that see high rainfall rates even if
those areas are not normally threatened by flood waters. The flood
watch will remain for now through noon Thursday but this may be
temporaly extended through Friday night. This is the first model run
for all global models to agree on keeping the frontal boundary
locked onshore through Friday. The EURO has been showing this could
be the case for few days but the others were bringing it out over
the gulf. If they keep this solution as a trend, then the flood
watch would likely be extended through Friday night.

Again, this pulse that will affect the area today will initiate to
our west and move through and could be a little earlier than
yesterday. This should be a recurring theme until a strong cold
front moves in Saturday morning to clean the area of this frontal
boundary that is stalled over the area. But don't look for sunny and
mild, instead overrunning should keep the area cool and rainy,
but not heavy rain, until Monday or Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday)...

Precipitable water values remain relatively high as mentioned in the
previous package for the Friday-Saturday time period in association
to another round of expected heavy rainfall. GFS guidance has
highest rainfall potential on Friday, but as far as location goes it
looks to be closer to the coast and off shore. As of now severe
weather is not expected, but certainty is low and forecast is
subject to change as we near the weekend. Things still trending
pretty in line with previous forecast, so no major changes were
made. Beyond that, high pressure building in from the west by the
start of next week should help us begin to dry out and get some
clear weather through at least mid week.  /TDB/

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions to MVFR are expected to develop from
northwest to southeast during the morning to midday with IFR
expected late this afternoon and especially tonight. Another line
of TSRA with strong winds may develop similar to yesterday with a
slightly earlier onset.

&&

.MARINE...
A front trough remains locked north of the coast while sh/ts are
develop each time a disturbance rides along it. This will occur
again today. The section of waters impacted the strongest should be
east of the river today but there will be thunderstorms that move
out over most of the water west of the river as well. Although winds
stayed in gale criteria for several hours yesterday from a wake low,
this area is not advertised to keep winds in gales today but instead
just bringing gales for a short duration as the line of
thunderstorms moves out over the water. If a wake low does form with
this, then headlines would be needed for these areas. In general,
winds will be S to SE around 15kt but when these thunderstorm
complexes move out over the gulf, winds will shift rapidly from
mostly what direction the storms are approaching. This scenario
should play out day after day until a stronger cold front moves
through by the weekend to clean all the messy weather that came
before it. Winds on the back side of this front should be around 20-
25kt from the N.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  59  73  54 / 100  80  60  40
BTR  76  62  74  58 / 100  80  70  40
ASD  76  64  76  57 / 100  80  90  30
MSY  79  67  76  64 / 100  90 100  30
GPT  75  64  75  57 / 100  80  80  30
PQL  76  63  74  56 /  90  80  90  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>050-056>061-063>072-075>078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ550-552-
     555-570-572-575.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for GMZ530.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

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