Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
422 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday Night)...
Everything being looked at this morning shows a similar show to
yesterday with the exception of severe wx numbers not being as high
but still high enough to produce some strong to severe thunderstorms
with the main issues being wind and hail and lots of water falling.
With the current fcast, additional rainfall totals through Friday
night would be from 3 to 5 inches with isoalted higher amounts.
Since soils are quite saturated, this just becomes runoff and
flooding is likely in areas that see high rainfall rates even if
those areas are not normally threatened by flood waters. The flood
watch will remain for now through noon Thursday but this may be
temporaly extended through Friday night. This is the first model run
for all global models to agree on keeping the frontal boundary
locked onshore through Friday. The EURO has been showing this could
be the case for few days but the others were bringing it out over
the gulf. If they keep this solution as a trend, then the flood
watch would likely be extended through Friday night.

Again, this pulse that will affect the area today will initiate to
our west and move through and could be a little earlier than
yesterday. This should be a recurring theme until a strong cold
front moves in Saturday morning to clean the area of this frontal
boundary that is stalled over the area. But don't look for sunny and
mild, instead overrunning should keep the area cool and rainy,
but not heavy rain, until Monday or Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday)...

Precipitable water values remain relatively high as mentioned in the
previous package for the Friday-Saturday time period in association
to another round of expected heavy rainfall. GFS guidance has
highest rainfall potential on Friday, but as far as location goes it
looks to be closer to the coast and off shore. As of now severe
weather is not expected, but certainty is low and forecast is
subject to change as we near the weekend. Things still trending
pretty in line with previous forecast, so no major changes were
made. Beyond that, high pressure building in from the west by the
start of next week should help us begin to dry out and get some
clear weather through at least mid week.  /TDB/

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions to MVFR are expected to develop from
northwest to southeast during the morning to midday with IFR
expected late this afternoon and especially tonight. Another line
of TSRA with strong winds may develop similar to yesterday with a
slightly earlier onset.

&&

.MARINE...
A front trough remains locked north of the coast while sh/ts are
develop each time a disturbance rides along it. This will occur
again today. The section of waters impacted the strongest should be
east of the river today but there will be thunderstorms that move
out over most of the water west of the river as well. Although winds
stayed in gale criteria for several hours yesterday from a wake low,
this area is not advertised to keep winds in gales today but instead
just bringing gales for a short duration as the line of
thunderstorms moves out over the water. If a wake low does form with
this, then headlines would be needed for these areas. In general,
winds will be S to SE around 15kt but when these thunderstorm
complexes move out over the gulf, winds will shift rapidly from
mostly what direction the storms are approaching. This scenario
should play out day after day until a stronger cold front moves
through by the weekend to clean all the messy weather that came
before it. Winds on the back side of this front should be around 20-
25kt from the N.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  59  73  54 / 100  80  60  40
BTR  76  62  74  58 / 100  80  70  40
ASD  76  64  76  57 / 100  80  90  30
MSY  79  67  76  64 / 100  90 100  30
GPT  75  64  75  57 / 100  80  80  30
PQL  76  63  74  56 /  90  80  90  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>050-056>061-063>072-075>078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ550-552-
     555-570-572-575.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for GMZ530.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
849 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

LAZ034-037-046>050-141445-
Livingston-Iberville-Ascension-St. Helena-Pointe Coupee-West Baton
Rouge-East Baton Rouge-
849 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
ASCENSION...WEST BATON ROUGE...SOUTHWESTERN ST. HELENA...SOUTHEASTERN
POINTE COUPEE...NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN IBERVILLE AND EAST
BATON ROUGE PARISHES...

At 849 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near New Roads to near Atchafalaya
National Wildlife Refuge. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Baton Rouge, Zachary, Baker, Denham Springs, Plaquemine, Port Allen,
Oak Hills Place, St. Gabriel, Walker, Addis, Brusly, Livonia,
Maringouin, Rosedale, Grosse Tete, Westminster, Erwinville, Watson,
Ramah and Shenandoah.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3067 9147 3067 9134 3065 9130 3068 9128
      3069 9074 3028 9098 3028 9160 3032 9163
      3035 9163 3037 9164 3038 9163 3041 9163
      3047 9166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 251DEG 28KT 3063 9144 3039 9166

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
904 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

LAZ036-037-048-071-141445-
St. Helena-Northern Tangipahoa-East Feliciana-East Baton Rouge-
904 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ST. HELENA...EAST
FELICIANA...NORTHWESTERN TANGIPAHOA AND NORTHERN EAST BATON ROUGE
PARISHES...

At 904 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Wilson to near Zachary. Movement was
east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Zachary, Clinton, Greensburg, Kentwood, Slaughter, Wilson, Osyka,
Norwood, Montpelier, Darlington, Pride, Felps, Easleyville and
Tangipahoa.

LAT...LON 3067 9056 3066 9130 3100 9107 3100 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1404Z 248DEG 32KT 3091 9106 3066 9124

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
912 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

LAZ056-059-065-066-141445-
Lower Terrebonne-Upper Terrebonne-Assumption-Upper Lafourche-
912 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN TERREBONNE AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ASSUMPTION PARISHES...

At 912 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Amelia, or near
Morgan City, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Houma, Gray, Bayou Cane and Schriever.

LAT...LON 2960 9119 2961 9118 2959 9116 2963 9108
      2965 9111 2972 9110 2970 9069 2943 9075
      2956 9123 2958 9123
TIME...MOT...LOC 1412Z 280DEG 24KT 2964 9114

KLG

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