Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
650 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

The forecast concern in the short term will be the development of
scattered thunderstorms this evening and overnight, a few which
may become strong to severe.

An approaching upper trough moving into the Northern Plains will
drive a cold front southeastward this evening and overnight.
Southerly flow ahead of the front and strong heating from this
afternoon will destabilize the atmosphere with MLCAPE values of
1000-2000 j/kg. Given the steep lapse rates, adequate CAPE
values, and deep layer shear, marginally severe hail to around 1
inch diameter and damaging winds are possible, especially where
storms are able to congeal into a line segment. This is more
likely to occur across the eastern half of north central NE.

A second area for thunderstorm development will be from extreme
northeast CO into southwest NE. This area will be in closer
proximity to the deep surface low. Coverage of these storms looks
fairly isolated but could become strong this evening.

While models do not point to any widespread heavy rainfall, the
surface front could allow for some training thunderstorms. The
eastern half of north central NE should see at least a 1/4 inch
of rainfall with a few localized areas potentially approaching 1
inch.

Showers and thunderstorm will diminish and end from northwest to
southeast overnight. Strong 3-hour pressure rises from 8-10mb across
the western Sandhills into central NE along with a north to
northeast 850mb wind near 40kt, support windy conditions developing
after midnight and lasting through mid morning Friday. Wind gusts
to around 35 mph are expected with gusts as high as 45 mph for an
hour or two. Lows tonight will range from 45 to 55, coolest over
the northwest Sandhills.

On Friday, cloud will linger across the south until late morning.
A few lingering showers are possible in the far southeast until 9
am CDT. Much cooler, as a fall-like airmass settles over the
region. With 850mb temperatures only recovering to 12-16C, highs
remain near previous forecast at near 70 degrees, as afternoon
sunshine aids.

Friday night, low level winds will become southerly with some mixing
after midnight. Lows mainly in the lower 50s. The 15Z SREF ensemble
indicates a chance for stratus development across portions of
southwest into central NE. This looks like a favorable setup as a
return southerly flow develops.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

Quiet weather this weekend. Upper ridging on Saturday begins to
break down Sunday. This will keep well above normal temperatures
in the 80s, with near 90 possible Sunday. Morning stratus is
possible Saturday morning and should dissipate late morning.

An upper level trough disturbance will deepen as it moves across
the Northern and Central Plains Monday into Monday night.
Temperatures will cool noticeably on Monday as the cold front
moves through the area. This will bring low chance POPs for Monday
afternoon and evening, although lesser that previous forecast.
This is a progressive system with any meaningful QFPS expected to
occur east of the mid Missouri Valley. For western NE, the mainly
weather occurrences will be the breezy to windy northwest winds
Monday into Tuesday, and a cooldown to the mid 60s to near 70 by
Tuesday. A return southerly flow should develop Tuesday night.
Still Lows will be quite cool from 40 to 45 degrees. It's possible
the far western sandhills could see lows in the mid to upper 30s.

A return to slightly above normal temperatures is expected by
next Thursday as upper ridging returns.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

Scattered thunderstorms are expected as a cold front moves
southeastward across the area overnight. Variable and gusty winds
can be expected near the storms, otherwise winds will switch to
the north-northeast and be gusty later tonight as the front
crosses the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

Low humidity as low as 10 to 15 percent across the northwest
Sandhills (zone 204) this afternoon will cause near-critical fire
weather conditions into early evening due to low humidity,
although winds will remain light as a cold front nears to area.

A cold front will move into the northwest Sandhills early this evening
and push southeast during the evening and overnight. Any firestarts
would be affected by the cold front and associated wind gusts
overnight. Thunderstorm chances also exist this evening and overnight.
With mostly locations expecting little or no rainfall, lightning could
ignite a grassfire or two.

Fire weather conditions will be elevated to near critical on Saturday
across the western Sandhills as temperatures rise into the upper 80s.
This will lead to minimum relative humidity around 15 to 20 percent
and wind gusts to around 20 mph possible.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
327 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
327 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 /227 PM MDT Thu Sep 16 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will continue
this afternoon across portions of the eastern Panhandle and
western Sandhills.

Thunderstorms are expected to form this evening ahead of a cold
front and continue into the overnight hours. Strong to severe
storms are possible across much of western and north central
Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.
Heavy rain is also possible over north central Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible in
the eastern Panhandle on Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
853 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 N NORTH PLATTE        41.23N 100.76W
09/16/2021  M65 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   MESONET

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

EMMA.SINCLAIR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
855 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

NEZ005-094-170245-
Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-
855 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Cherry
County through 945 PM CDT/845 PM MDT/...

At 855 PM CDT/755 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 20 miles south of Medicine Lake, or 31 miles northwest
of Mullen, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Merritt Reservoir, Highway 97 crossing the North Loup River, Speckel
Meir Lake and Highway 97 crossing Big Creek.

This includes Highway 97 between mile markers 89 and 125.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT/200 AM
MDT/ for north central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4229 10146 4255 10154 4275 10078 4237 10070
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 250DEG 28KT 4243 10136

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NMJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
900 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

NEZ058-059-170245-
Perkins NE-Lincoln NE-
900 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Perkins and
southwestern Lincoln Counties through 945 PM CDT/845 PM MDT/...

At 900 PM CDT/800 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Wallace, or 23 miles east of Grant, moving east at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wallace, Elsie, Dickens, Grainton and Somerset.

This includes Highway 83 between mile markers 62 and 65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT/200 AM
MDT/ for southwestern Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4070 10136 4093 10148 4111 10086 4083 10073
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 252DEG 29KT 4087 10127

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
909 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

NEZ005-094-170245-
Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-
909 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central Cherry
County through 945 PM CDT/845 PM MDT/...

At 909 PM CDT/809 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Kilgore to 19 miles
south of Medicine Lake. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kilgore, Merritt Reservoir, Crookston, Highway 97 crossing the
Niobrara River, Steer Creek Campground and Anderson Bridge State
Wildlife Management Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 168 and 193.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 106 and 136.
 Highway 83 near mile marker 222.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT/200 AM
MDT/ for north central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4248 10072 4258 10130 4300 10105 4300 10057
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 265DEG 33KT 4299 10101 4245 10131

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

NMJ