Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
650 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

The forecast concern in the short term will be the development of
scattered thunderstorms this evening and overnight, a few which
may become strong to severe.

An approaching upper trough moving into the Northern Plains will
drive a cold front southeastward this evening and overnight.
Southerly flow ahead of the front and strong heating from this
afternoon will destabilize the atmosphere with MLCAPE values of
1000-2000 j/kg. Given the steep lapse rates, adequate CAPE
values, and deep layer shear, marginally severe hail to around 1
inch diameter and damaging winds are possible, especially where
storms are able to congeal into a line segment. This is more
likely to occur across the eastern half of north central NE.

A second area for thunderstorm development will be from extreme
northeast CO into southwest NE. This area will be in closer
proximity to the deep surface low. Coverage of these storms looks
fairly isolated but could become strong this evening.

While models do not point to any widespread heavy rainfall, the
surface front could allow for some training thunderstorms. The
eastern half of north central NE should see at least a 1/4 inch
of rainfall with a few localized areas potentially approaching 1
inch.

Showers and thunderstorm will diminish and end from northwest to
southeast overnight. Strong 3-hour pressure rises from 8-10mb across
the western Sandhills into central NE along with a north to
northeast 850mb wind near 40kt, support windy conditions developing
after midnight and lasting through mid morning Friday. Wind gusts
to around 35 mph are expected with gusts as high as 45 mph for an
hour or two. Lows tonight will range from 45 to 55, coolest over
the northwest Sandhills.

On Friday, cloud will linger across the south until late morning.
A few lingering showers are possible in the far southeast until 9
am CDT. Much cooler, as a fall-like airmass settles over the
region. With 850mb temperatures only recovering to 12-16C, highs
remain near previous forecast at near 70 degrees, as afternoon
sunshine aids.

Friday night, low level winds will become southerly with some mixing
after midnight. Lows mainly in the lower 50s. The 15Z SREF ensemble
indicates a chance for stratus development across portions of
southwest into central NE. This looks like a favorable setup as a
return southerly flow develops.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

Quiet weather this weekend. Upper ridging on Saturday begins to
break down Sunday. This will keep well above normal temperatures
in the 80s, with near 90 possible Sunday. Morning stratus is
possible Saturday morning and should dissipate late morning.

An upper level trough disturbance will deepen as it moves across
the Northern and Central Plains Monday into Monday night.
Temperatures will cool noticeably on Monday as the cold front
moves through the area. This will bring low chance POPs for Monday
afternoon and evening, although lesser that previous forecast.
This is a progressive system with any meaningful QFPS expected to
occur east of the mid Missouri Valley. For western NE, the mainly
weather occurrences will be the breezy to windy northwest winds
Monday into Tuesday, and a cooldown to the mid 60s to near 70 by
Tuesday. A return southerly flow should develop Tuesday night.
Still Lows will be quite cool from 40 to 45 degrees. It's possible
the far western sandhills could see lows in the mid to upper 30s.

A return to slightly above normal temperatures is expected by
next Thursday as upper ridging returns.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

Scattered thunderstorms are expected as a cold front moves
southeastward across the area overnight. Variable and gusty winds
can be expected near the storms, otherwise winds will switch to
the north-northeast and be gusty later tonight as the front
crosses the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

Low humidity as low as 10 to 15 percent across the northwest
Sandhills (zone 204) this afternoon will cause near-critical fire
weather conditions into early evening due to low humidity,
although winds will remain light as a cold front nears to area.

A cold front will move into the northwest Sandhills early this evening
and push southeast during the evening and overnight. Any firestarts
would be affected by the cold front and associated wind gusts
overnight. Thunderstorm chances also exist this evening and overnight.
With mostly locations expecting little or no rainfall, lightning could
ignite a grassfire or two.

Fire weather conditions will be elevated to near critical on Saturday
across the western Sandhills as temperatures rise into the upper 80s.
This will lead to minimum relative humidity around 15 to 20 percent
and wind gusts to around 20 mph possible.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
327 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
327 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 /227 PM MDT Thu Sep 16 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will continue
this afternoon across portions of the eastern Panhandle and
western Sandhills.

Thunderstorms are expected to form this evening ahead of a cold
front and continue into the overnight hours. Strong to severe
storms are possible across much of western and north central
Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.
Heavy rain is also possible over north central Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible in
the eastern Panhandle on Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
741 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     TSTM WND GST     OGALLALA                41.13N 101.72W
09/16/2021  M67 MPH          KEITH              NE   ASOS

&&

EMMA.SINCLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
747 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     HAIL             OGALLALA                41.13N 101.72W
09/16/2021  M1.00 INCH       KEITH              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MPING REPORT.

&&

EMMA.SINCLAIR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
651 PM MDT Thu Sep 16 2021

NEZ004-094-170130-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
651 PM MDT Thu Sep 16 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Cherry
and southeastern Sheridan Counties through 730 PM MDT...

At 650 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles north of Ashby, or 35 miles southeast of Gordon, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Watson Lake, Highway 61 crossing the Snake River, Round Lake, Big
Hill, Dipping Vat Meadow, Billys Lake, Morgan Lake, Wolf Hill, Indian
Hill, Intersection of Highway 61 and Survey Valley Road and Mother
Lake.

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 176 and 206.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4211 10189 4215 10229 4271 10192 4256 10122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 230DEG 23KT 4235 10189

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Snively

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