Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
304 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

Strong capping is keeping our weather quiet with hazy sunshine across
central and western Nebraska. However, a rogue shower or isolated
thunderstorm may sneak in from up around the Black Hills early tonight,
though not enough instability remaining at that point to fuel any
meaningful convection.

Friday will primarily feature fire weather concerns as surging
temperatures create low relative humidity values, and a deeply mixed
boundary layer allows efficient downward monentum transfer to create
some gusty conditions for the afternoon. Have issued a Fire Weather
Watch where minimum RH values and gusty winds overlap best toward the
Colorado border with an adjacent SPS for enhanced fire potential.

By late Friday, a vigorous upper trof will approach from the west with
a good amount of forcing and deformation to boost updrafts despite
limited instability. Deeply mixed boundary layer will yield significant
DCAPE values and create a damaging wind threat for any isolated storms
that form late in the day tomorrow into tomorrow evening, mainly toward
the panhandle. Do not expect any meaningful widespread precipitation
with convection through tomorrow night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

A sharp trof will help push a weak front throug the region late
Saturday. Shear parameters will be more favorable for organized
convection but instability appears to be somewhat limited with better
instability off to our east. Appears to be enough overlap of parameters
in the east to support robust updrafts and a potential severe threat.
From Valentine and Broken Bow eastward, looks like enough CAPE in the
hail growth zone to support isolated large hail and DCAPE values will
support an isolated damaging wind threat into Saturday evening.

Thereafter, ensemble guidance continues to be in good agreement in
showing a persistent ridge in the west while a series of trofs help
reestablish a mean trof over the eastern US. This will keep above
normal temperatures across Nebraska through the middle of next week.
The best signal for widespread rainfall lies off to our southeast so
rainfall looks quite spotty with a chance for scattreed/widely
scattered thunderstorms each day from Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

VFR conditions are expected the lingering smoke aloft not
expected to produce any impacts at the surface. Skies will remain
partly to mostly clear with bases above 15k feet AGL. Will need to
watch for potential of LLWS this evening at both terminals however
confidence was too low to include at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for NEZ210.

&&

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...NMJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
351 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-062100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
351 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 /251 PM MDT Thu Aug 5 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening for  far
northwest Nebraska near the Pine Ridge into portions of the
Sandhills. The threat of severe weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of southwest
Nebraska on Friday. Please refer to this product for more details.

The combination of hot temperatures, dry air, and breezy winds
will lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Any
fire start may spread rapidly and become difficult to contain.
Additional fire weather concerns also exist Sunday and Monday.

Thunderstorm chances return Friday and Saturday evening. A few
storms may be strong to briefly severe each night with the main
concerns being hail and strong winds. Additional thunderstorm
chances exist Tuesday and Wednesday but the threat for severe
weather for these days remains uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
402 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

NEZ005-006-008-052130-
Brown NE-Eastern Cherry NE-Keya Paha NE-
402 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Cherry,
northwestern Brown and west central Keya Paha Counties through 430 PM
CDT...

At 401 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Littleburg, or 12 miles northeast of Valentine, moving southeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Norden, Sparks and Smith Falls State Park.

This includes Highway 12 between mile markers 9 and 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4287 10004 4276 10029 4300 10049 4300 10018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 325DEG 23KT 4299 10035

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
411 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

NEZ038-052200-
Custer NE-
411 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Custer
County through 500 PM CDT...

At 411 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Miller, or 27 miles northwest of Kearney, moving south
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Block Hill Basin and Intersection of Highway 183 and Cumro Road.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 73 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 9947 4108 9948 4114 9925 4107 9920
      4105 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 339DEG 9KT 4105 9934

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
607 PM CDT THU AUG 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             1 SW STUART             42.59N 99.15W
08/05/2021  M1.00 INCH       HOLT               NE   PUBLIC

&&

KROBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
612 PM CDT THU AUG 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 S BURTON              42.78N 99.59W
08/05/2021  E80 MPH          KEYA PAHA          NE   PUBLIC

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 80 MPH. SEVERAL TREES UPROOTED
            AND BROKEN OFF. A CAMPER WAS ROLLED OVER AND A GRAIN BIN
            WAS DAMAGED. POWER WAS ALSO LOST.

&&

KROBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
614 PM CDT THU AUG 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             9 S BURTON              42.78N 99.59W
08/05/2021  E1.75 INCH       KEYA PAHA          NE   PUBLIC

            VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE WAS
            OBSERVED.

&&

KROBERG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
534 PM MDT Thu Aug 5 2021

NEZ004-060015-
Sheridan NE-
534 PM MDT Thu Aug 5 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Sheridan
County through 615 PM MDT...

At 533 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles east of Intersection of Red Shirt and
Cuny Table Roads to near Chadron to 8 miles southwest of Flahertys
Corner. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rushville, Hay Springs, White Clay, Clinton, Intersection of Highway
87 and Craven Creek Road, Intersection of Beaver Creek Road and White
Clay Creek Road, Intersection of Highway 87 and Larabee Road, Mount
Maria, Highway 250 crossing the Niobrara River, Walgren Lake State
Recreation Area, Pine Ridge, Metcalf State Wildlife Management Area
and Intersection of Highway 87 and Antelope Road.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 74 and 102.
 Highway 250 between mile markers 37 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4300 10221 4270 10230 4228 10274 4244 10275
      4244 10277 4278 10277 4279 10279 4300 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 287DEG 27KT 4347 10273 4285 10291 4224 10356

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Sporer