Fire Weather Watch 6, NWS North Platte, NE

053 
WWUS83 KLBF 060752
RFWLBF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
252 AM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021


NEZ210-070000-
/O.UPG.KLBF.FW.A.0006.210806T1900Z-210807T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KLBF.FW.W.0009.210806T1800Z-210807T0000Z/
Frenchman Basin-
152 AM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...

The National Weather Service in North Platte has issued a Red
Flag Warning FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in
effect from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening. The Fire Weather
Watch is no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...In NEZ210...Fire Weather Zone 210 Frenchman 
  Basin.

* Winds...South 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Impacts...Expected conditions may result in rapid fire growth. 
  Fires may become difficult to control or contain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

http://weather.gov/LBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
304 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

Strong capping is keeping our weather quiet with hazy sunshine across
central and western Nebraska. However, a rogue shower or isolated
thunderstorm may sneak in from up around the Black Hills early tonight,
though not enough instability remaining at that point to fuel any
meaningful convection.

Friday will primarily feature fire weather concerns as surging
temperatures create low relative humidity values, and a deeply mixed
boundary layer allows efficient downward monentum transfer to create
some gusty conditions for the afternoon. Have issued a Fire Weather
Watch where minimum RH values and gusty winds overlap best toward the
Colorado border with an adjacent SPS for enhanced fire potential.

By late Friday, a vigorous upper trof will approach from the west with
a good amount of forcing and deformation to boost updrafts despite
limited instability. Deeply mixed boundary layer will yield significant
DCAPE values and create a damaging wind threat for any isolated storms
that form late in the day tomorrow into tomorrow evening, mainly toward
the panhandle. Do not expect any meaningful widespread precipitation
with convection through tomorrow night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

A sharp trof will help push a weak front throug the region late
Saturday. Shear parameters will be more favorable for organized
convection but instability appears to be somewhat limited with better
instability off to our east. Appears to be enough overlap of parameters
in the east to support robust updrafts and a potential severe threat.
From Valentine and Broken Bow eastward, looks like enough CAPE in the
hail growth zone to support isolated large hail and DCAPE values will
support an isolated damaging wind threat into Saturday evening.

Thereafter, ensemble guidance continues to be in good agreement in
showing a persistent ridge in the west while a series of trofs help
reestablish a mean trof over the eastern US. This will keep above
normal temperatures across Nebraska through the middle of next week.
The best signal for widespread rainfall lies off to our southeast so
rainfall looks quite spotty with a chance for scattreed/widely
scattered thunderstorms each day from Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

VFR conditions are expected the lingering smoke aloft not
expected to produce any impacts at the surface. Skies will remain
partly to mostly clear with bases above 15k feet AGL. Will need to
watch for potential of LLWS this evening at both terminals however
confidence was too low to include at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for NEZ210.

&&

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...NMJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-061630-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 /1029 AM MDT Thu Aug 5 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening for central
Nebraska as well as far northwest Nebraska near the Pine Ridge.
The threat of severe weather is generally low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

The combination of hot temperatures, dry air, and breezy winds
will lead to near critical fire weather conditions Friday
afternoon in southwest Nebraska.

Additional thunderstorm chances return Friday and Saturday
evenings and again next Monday into Tuesday. A few thunderstorms
may become strong or severe on Saturday, primarily east of Highway
83. Hail and strong winds are the main concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
944 AM CDT THU AUG 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NW EUSTIS             40.69N 100.05W
08/05/2021  M1.51 INCH       FRONTIER           NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION EUSN1 EUSTIS 2NW.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WNW EUSTIS            40.69N 100.10W
08/05/2021  M1.17 INCH       FRONTIER           NE   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION FRON010 EUSTIS 4WNW.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       10 S MAYWOOD            40.51N 100.65W
08/05/2021  M0.49 INCH       FRONTIER           NE   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION FRON015 MAYWOOD 10S.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       8 SW EUSTIS             40.57N 100.12W
08/05/2021  M0.34 INCH       FRONTIER           NE   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION FRON011 EUSTIS 8SW.

&&