Special Marine Warning 265, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1036 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Weak anticyclonic flow over the area and cyclonic flow north of
the Keys yielded fast moving showers, which affected the southern
and eastern coastal waters and the local islands. The shower
activity produced frequent cloud to ground lightning and wind
gusts up to 20 knots. Showers intensified on their approach to
the keys, which let's us know that the atmosphere is unstable and
could yield linear convection this evening. From the 12Z KKEY
sounding, DCAPE values came in around 1100 J/KG, SRH 0 to 3 KM
came in at 171 m2/s2 and 500 mb temps are around -6.5C. However,
the frontal boundary is expected to remain parallel to the flow.
THerefore, organized discrete cells are not expected to develop
late tonight. A frontal boundary oriented from the northeast to
southwest across the central Florida Peninsula has produced severe
weather for our northern WFO neighbors. The shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to slowly diminishing late
tonight over the central and southern Peninsula of Florida.
However, shower and thunderstorm activity is progged to increase
from the northwest to southeast as the frontal boundary propagates
near the keys. Therefore, expect periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall and gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys coastal
waters. A frontal boundary will move over the northwestern local
waters tonight and push through the remainder waters during the
early morning hours. The front will promote freshening
southwesterly to westerly breezes and showers and thunderstorms.
Fresh to strong breezes will prevail across the coastal waters
through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with brief MVFR conditions will continue over
terminal KEYW through 28/04Z. A line of SHRA/VCTS associated with
a frontal boundary are expected to effect terminals KEYW AND KMTH
by 29/04 and cause brief reduction in visibilities. The convection
could produce winds gusts up to 25 kt. SHRA/VCTS are expected to
diminish by 29/11Z as the frontal boundary moves east of the local
terminal sites. Sfc winds will be from the southwest to west with
winds up to 20 kts with higher gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  78  83  74  82 / 70 20 10 20
Marathon  78  84  74  83 / 70 20 10 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...Washington
Aviation/Nowcasts....KR Data
Acquisition.....MRR

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
443 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-290845-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
443 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed in all waters
starting tonight due to increasing southwest to west winds
associated with a cold front that is expected to move through the
area tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today, then scattered
thunderstorms will be possible tonight as a cold front passes
across the Florida Keys. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be
possible cloud to surface lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed through Saturday in
all coastal waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

NB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1040 PM EDT THU OCT 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     WATER SPOUT      4 E BIG COPPITT KEY     24.59N 81.59W
10/28/2021                   GMZ044             FL   PUBLIC

            A MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC REPORTED A WATERSPOUT NEAR THE
            SADDLEBUNCH KEYS AT AROUND 0600 PM. A SPRAY RING WAS
            VISIBLE AND IT IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE LASTED 5-10 MINUTES.
            LOCATION IS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION
            GIVEN.

&&

MRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1205 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 14 NW KEY WEST          24.71N 81.93W
10/28/2021  M53 MPH          GMZ033             FL   MESONET

            A SOUTHWEST WIND GUST OF 46 KNOTS, OR 53 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT SMITH SHOAL
            LIGHT AT 1156 PM EDT.

&&

JACOBSON