Special Marine Warning 146, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1248 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.UPDATE...
.CURRENTLY...
All tropical storm warnings has been cancelled this morning across
the Keys although a Flash Flood Watch will continue through late
tonight, with an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in isolated
locations. This may cause issues of flooding in low lying areas
and ponding on road surfaces.

For today, storms from the remnants of Fred will move westward
through the straits and this process will continue into tonight
and tomorrow. Wind gusts in the squalls will range near to 40
knots. The gradient winds are currently around 20 knots more or
less but are expected to taper back later this evening and into
the overnight hours.

The debris of Fred is projected to lift to the north northwest
and out of straits and into the eastern gulf on Sunday. Looking
for conditions returning back to seasonal norms Sunday through
Tuesday, but a new Tropical Storm has formed east of the Leeward
Islands and is moving west around 23 mph. Tropical Storm Grace was
located at 16.2N 57.9W with sustained winds around 45 mph. The
forecast has possible tropical storm conditions in the Florida
Straits by Wednesday if the storm remains on the same course and
speed.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ076>078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...KLW. Kuyper
Aviation/Nowcasts....LW
Data Acquisition.....JAM/KR

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
521 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-150930-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
521 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Fred is expected to track near or west of the Dry Tortugas
this evening, then potentially strengthen into a tropical storm
as it pulls away from the Dry Tortugas. Hazards for the Florida
Keys will include flooding rainfall, isolated tornadoes, and
treacherous marine conditions. Thundery squalls will be capable of
localized wind gusts near 45 mph and lightning strikes.
Conditions are not likely to improve until after midnight.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until late tonight. Rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated higher totals will result in
a significant potential for flooding of streets and poor drainage
areas, especially during the times of high tide.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday through Friday.
The primary thunderstorm hazards will be lightning strikes.

The long range forecast for Tropical Storm Grace indicates a
persistent path to the west-northwest through the Greater
Antilles, then the Bahamas, and possibly into portions of the
Florida Keys and South Florida in four to five days. It is still
too early to discuss all of the possible impacts, although
confidence in another round of locally heavy rainfall is
increasing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

CLR

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
617 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 5 SSE EAST END OF SEVEN 24.63N 81.10W
08/14/2021  M47 MPH          GMZ043             FL   C-MAN STATION

            A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 41 KTS, OR 47 MPH, WAS

            RECORDED BY THE SOMBRERO KEY C-MAN STATION AT 500 PM EDT.

&&

ROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
622 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 14 NW KEY WEST          24.71N 81.93W
08/14/2021  M43.00 MPH       GMZ033             FL   MESONET

            A SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 37 KTS, OR 43 MPH, WAS RECORDED
            BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT AT
            441 PM EDT.

0506 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 14 NW KEY WEST          24.71N 81.93W
08/14/2021  M40.00 MPH       GMZ033             FL   MESONET

            A SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 35 KTS, OR 40 MPH, WAS RECORDED
            BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT AT
            506 PM EDT.

&&

ROSS