Special Marine Warning 144, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1248 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.UPDATE...
.CURRENTLY...
All tropical storm warnings has been cancelled this morning across
the Keys although a Flash Flood Watch will continue through late
tonight, with an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in isolated
locations. This may cause issues of flooding in low lying areas
and ponding on road surfaces.

For today, storms from the remnants of Fred will move westward
through the straits and this process will continue into tonight
and tomorrow. Wind gusts in the squalls will range near to 40
knots. The gradient winds are currently around 20 knots more or
less but are expected to taper back later this evening and into
the overnight hours.

The debris of Fred is projected to lift to the north northwest
and out of straits and into the eastern gulf on Sunday. Looking
for conditions returning back to seasonal norms Sunday through
Tuesday, but a new Tropical Storm has formed east of the Leeward
Islands and is moving west around 23 mph. Tropical Storm Grace was
located at 16.2N 57.9W with sustained winds around 45 mph. The
forecast has possible tropical storm conditions in the Florida
Straits by Wednesday if the storm remains on the same course and
speed.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ076>078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...KLW. Kuyper
Aviation/Nowcasts....LW
Data Acquisition.....JAM/KR

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
521 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-150930-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
521 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Fred is expected to track near or west of the Dry Tortugas
this evening, then potentially strengthen into a tropical storm
as it pulls away from the Dry Tortugas. Hazards for the Florida
Keys will include flooding rainfall, isolated tornadoes, and
treacherous marine conditions. Thundery squalls will be capable of
localized wind gusts near 45 mph and lightning strikes.
Conditions are not likely to improve until after midnight.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until late tonight. Rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated higher totals will result in
a significant potential for flooding of streets and poor drainage
areas, especially during the times of high tide.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday through Friday.
The primary thunderstorm hazards will be lightning strikes.

The long range forecast for Tropical Storm Grace indicates a
persistent path to the west-northwest through the Greater
Antilles, then the Bahamas, and possibly into portions of the
Florida Keys and South Florida in four to five days. It is still
too early to discuss all of the possible impacts, although
confidence in another round of locally heavy rainfall is
increasing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

CLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
243 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 SE TEATABLE KEY       24.85N 80.62W
08/14/2021  M39.00 MPH       GMZ042             FL   MESONET

            AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 34 KTS, OR 39 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT ALLIGATOR
            REEF LIGHT AT 1057 AM EDT.

1105 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 11 ESE CARD SOUND BRIDG 25.23N 80.21W
08/14/2021  M51.00 MPH       GMZ042             FL   MESONET

            A SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 45 KTS, 51 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT CARYSFORT
            REEF LIGHT AT 1105 AM EDT.

1130 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST          24.46N 81.88W
08/14/2021  M41.00 MPH       GMZ044             FL   C-MAN STATION

            AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 36 KTS, OR 41 MPH, WAS

            RECORDED BY THE C-MAN STATION AT SAND KEY AT 1130 AM EDT.

1256 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 14 NW KEY WEST          24.72N 81.92W
08/14/2021  M45.00 MPH       GMZ033             FL   MESONET

            AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 39 KTS, OR 45 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT SMITH SHOAL
            LIGHT AT 1256 PM EDT.

0110 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 5 SSE EAST END OF SEVEN 24.63N 81.11W
08/14/2021  M39.00 MPH       GMZ043             FL   C-MAN STATION

            A SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 34 KTS, OR 39 MPH, WAS RECORDED
            BY THE C-MAN STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT AT 110 PM EDT.

0120 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST          24.46N 81.88W
08/14/2021  M40.00 MPH       GMZ044             FL   C-MAN STATION

            A SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 35 KTS, OR 40 MPH, WAS RECORDED
            BY THE C-MAN STATION SAND KEY AT 120 PM EDT.

0137 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 SE TEATABLE KEY       24.85N 80.62W
08/14/2021  M40.00 MPH       GMZ042             FL   MESONET

            AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 35 KTS, OR 40 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT ALLIGATOR
            REEF LIGHT AT 137 PM EDT.

0146 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 14 NW KEY WEST          24.72N 81.92W
08/14/2021  M46.00 MPH       GMZ033             FL   MESONET

            AN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 40 KTS, OR 46 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT SMITH SHOAL
            LIGHT AT 146 PM EDT.

0153 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 5 ENE EAST END OF SEVEN 24.73N 81.05W
08/14/2021  M39.00 MPH       MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL   ASOS

            AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS, OR 39 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON INTERNATIONAL
            AIRPORT ASOS AT 153 PM EDT.

0153 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 WSW BOCA CHICA        24.56N 81.76W
08/14/2021  M43.00 MPH       LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   ASOS

            A SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 37 KNOTS, OR 43 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ASOS AT
            153 PM EDT.

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST          24.46N 81.88W
08/14/2021  M40.00 MPH       GMZ044             FL   C-MAN STATION

            A SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 35 KNOTS, OR 40 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE C-MAN STATION SAND KEY AT 230 PM EDT.

0237 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 14 NW KEY WEST          24.72N 81.92W
08/14/2021  M40.00 MPH       GMZ033             FL   MESONET

            A SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 35 KTS, OR 40 MPH, WAS RECORDED
            BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT AT
            237 PM EDT.

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
356 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 14 NW KEY WEST          24.72N 81.92W
08/14/2021  M41.00 MPH       GMZ033             FL   MESONET

            AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 36 KNOTS, OR 41 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT SMITH SHOAL
            LIGHT AT 342 PM EDT.

0342 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 WSW BOCA CHICA        24.56N 81.76W
08/14/2021  M40.00 MPH       LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   ASOS

            A SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 35 KNOTS, OR 40 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ASOS AT
            343 PM EDT.

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
431 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND ESE SUGARLOAF KEY       24.63N 81.55W
08/14/2021  M40.00 MPH       LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   MESONET

            A SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 35 KTS, OR 40 MPH, WAS RECORDED
            BY A SUGARLOAF KEY CWOP STATION ON JAMAICA LANE AT 217 PM
            EDT.

0352 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 14 NW KEY WEST          24.71N 81.93W
08/14/2021  M45.00 MPH       GMZ033             FL   MESONET

            AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 39 KTS, OR 45 MPH, WAS
            RECORDED BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET SITE AT SMITH SHOAL
            LIGHT AT 352 PM EDT.

&&

ROSS