Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
420 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1104 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

There looks to be an old outflow boundary moving into the region
this morning and this is already sparking off a few showers and
perhaps eventually a thunderstorm or two. We will see shower and
thunderstorm chances increasing through the day, as a cold front
and trough axis drop into the Ohio Valley. It still looks like
damaging winds and flash flooding will be the primary risks
today. Updated grids to reflect the latest obs and trends.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

Made a few tweaks to the precipitation probability forecast for
today, but nothing that would warrant issuing a new zone forecast
text product. The latest obs were also ingested into the forecast
grids to establish new trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

The primary forecast concern in the short term will the potential
for showers and thunderstorms today and tonight and any severe
weather potential. A strong cold front is still forecast to move
through the region later today and tonight. With a good supply of
low level moist and unstable air in place across eastern Kentucky,
we can expect widespread showers and storms to fire up and affect
the area this afternoon, this evening, and part of tonight. Their
is still a slight chance of severe weather later today into early
this evening, as the cold front cold moves through. Even with a
strong trigger and loads of instability and moisture, one limiting
factor for more widespread severe weather still remains, strong
winds aloft. That being said, the atmosphere will definitely be
supportive for thunderstorm activity this afternoon and this
evening, and a few storms could produce hail, strong winds,
frequent cloud to ground lightning, and heavy rainfall that could
lead to localized flooding. We will continue to monitor severe
weather potential through out the morning, and will update the
forecast as needed should severe potential increase at any time.
Showers and storms will continue overnight, with mainly showers
ongoing early Tuesday morning. The rain will continue on Tuesday
across the area, but will gradually taper off from west to east
through out the day, and should be out of eastern Kentucky by
early Tuesday evening.

Winds will be strong and gusty early today into this afternoon,
with southwesterly flow of 10 to 15 mph and gusts of up to 25 mph
expected at times. Temperatures will be extremely warm again
today, as southerly to southwesterly flow continues to dominate.
The mercury is forecast to max out in the upper 80s for most
locations later today. Once the front moves through overnight, we
will see a dramatic change in temperatures, as a cool Canadian
air mass filters into the region behind the departing cold front
and winds shift to the northwest. This influx of cooler air will
lead to lows in the upper 50s for tonight. Tuesday will be much
cooler than today, with highs in the lower 70s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 420 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

A meridional upper level pattern will be in place as a broad trough
shifts eastward. To the west, an upper level high remains locked in
over the Southern Rockies, assisting in the amplified flow. At the
surface, an area of high pressure will be exiting the Ohio Valley
and working into the Central Appalachians and Northeast. As it does
so, southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures back to Eastern
Kentucky midweek. Guidance then begins to diverge on a solution for
our next system. Starting in the upper levels, a shortwave will
develop out of the Midwest and Upper Mississippi Valley region.
Ahead of this, a warm front will be lifting out of the west-
southwest, running from Illinois to Alabama, and through Eastern
Kentucky. The GFS is the most progressive, bringing PoPs into the
area by Friday afternoon. The Canadian and ECMWF, however, suggest
showers and storms arriving closer to the late morning hours of
Saturday. Given the disparities, have gone with the blends solution
of slight chance to scattered showers/storms Friday afternoon &
evening. A deeper low and trough will then work out of Central
Canada and towards the Upper Mississippi Valley by late weekend and
into next week, carrying a front through the Mid-Atlantic. Early
operational guidance indicates PWATs in the 2 inch and greater range
Saturday and through the end of the period. However, ensemble data
is slightly more conservative with PWATs in the range of 1.5-2".
Regardless, a hydro threat will be something to watch through the
weekend and early next week if things materialize, given the
synoptic pattern and moisture in place.

Overall, the pattern, as a whole, looks to be a wet one. The
beginning of the extended will start dry with highs in the upper 70s
and low 80s. As high pressure shifts east, highs will warm up into
the mid and upper 80s Thursday and low to mid 80s Friday due to the
added cloud cover expected. Lows will generally be in the low to mid
60s Thursday night and onward, with the exception being Wednesday
night. With the passage of a cold front, calm winds, and mostly
clear skies with leave lows overnight Wednesday in the low to mid
50s. The first wave of showers and storms will then arrive early
into the weekend, while a surface low and front bring additional
activity late into the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

Showers and thunderstorms are quickly developing across portions
of eastern Kentucky this afternoon. These storms will lead to
quick drops in Vis and Cigs into the IFR or lower range, and they
will also have the potential to produce strong to severe wind
gusts and marginally severe hail. Outside of storms expect gusty
winds at times, but largely VFR skies if you catch a break in
between storms. These storms will move through this afternoon and
evening leaving behind the potential for stratus and fog through
the overnight. This could lead to period of MVFR Cigs and Vis
through the morning on Tuesday. The winds will be SW to begin the
period, but more erratic in thunderstorms. Then becoming more west
and northwest behind the front through the night.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...BB
AVIATION...DJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
424 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

KYZ050-052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-222330-
Montgomery-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-
Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-
Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-
Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling,
Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg,
Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset,
London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg,
Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan,
Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville,
Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman,
Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins,
Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
424 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a good chance for thunderstorms through the evening.
Some of the storms may produce hail, severe wind gusts, and
frequent cloud to ground lightning. Torrential downpours could
lead to localized flooding. A few storms will also be possible
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times Friday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any wind damage and flooding.

KYZ044-051-222330-
Fleming-Bath-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg and Owingsville
424 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorm chances will decrease through the night, but the
good news is the severe weather threat has wained.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times Friday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any wind damage and flooding.

DJ/BB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
406 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

KYZ107-109-110-112-212030-
Breathitt-Floyd-Johnson-Magoffin-
406 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON...
NORTHWESTERN FLOYD...CENTRAL BREATHITT AND MAGOFFIN COUNTIES...

At 406 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Salyersville to Stevenson. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Salyersville, Mason, Fredville, Vail, Gunlock, Oil Springs, Gifford,
Falcon, Carver, Daisydell, Burning Fork, Orchard, Dotson, West
Royalton Station, Carver Station, Blue River, Swamp Branch,
Riceville, Gapville and Evanston.

LAT...LON 3750 8303 3752 8305 3752 8309 3749 8310
      3745 8325 3760 8334 3768 8328 3768 8326
      3770 8325 3771 8326 3777 8314 3785 8289
      3756 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 246DEG 26KT 3774 8308 3757 8325

GEERTSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
424 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0251 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROUNDSTONE              37.44N 84.32W
06/21/2021                   ROCKCASTLE         KY   PUBLIC

            PHOTOS OF TREES AND LIMBS DOWN IN
            ROUNDSTONE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

HAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
426 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DISPUTANTA              37.49N 84.26W
06/21/2021                   ROCKCASTLE         KY   PUBLIC

            PHOTOS OF A TREE DOWN WITH SOME DAMAGE TO AN
            OUTDOOR STRUCTURE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

HAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
430 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

KYZ112-113-115-117-118-212100-
Breathitt-Perry-Knott-Letcher-Leslie-
430 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LESLIE...
NORTHWESTERN LETCHER...NORTHEASTERN PERRY...KNOTT AND SOUTH CENTRAL
BREATHITT COUNTIES...

At 430 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bulan, or over
Hazard, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hazard, Hindman, Bath, Pippa Passes, Vicco, Elic, Cody, Pine Top,
Leburn, Viper, Carr Creek, Isom, Emmalena, Nealy, Bearville, Colson,
Redfox, Ivis, Bulan and Avawam.

LAT...LON 3717 8341 3745 8319 3743 8284 3741 8283
      3742 8282 3741 8281 3742 8280 3742 8279
      3716 8288
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 269DEG 22KT 3730 8320

GEERTSON