Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Jackson, KY

916 
WWUS53 KJKL 212043 RRA
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
443 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

KYC199-231-212053-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0054.000000T0000Z-210621T2045Z/
Wayne KY-Pulaski KY-
443 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WAYNE AND
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
south central Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3706 8483 3725 8454 3697 8436 3695 8438
      3695 8442 3693 8445 3684 8470
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 255DEG 38KT 3707 8441 

$$

GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
202 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1104 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

There looks to be an old outflow boundary moving into the region
this morning and this is already sparking off a few showers and
perhaps eventually a thunderstorm or two. We will see shower and
thunderstorm chances increasing through the day, as a cold front
and trough axis drop into the Ohio Valley. It still looks like
damaging winds and flash flooding will be the primary risks
today. Updated grids to reflect the latest obs and trends.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

Made a few tweaks to the precipitation probability forecast for
today, but nothing that would warrant issuing a new zone forecast
text product. The latest obs were also ingested into the forecast
grids to establish new trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

The primary forecast concern in the short term will the potential
for showers and thunderstorms today and tonight and any severe
weather potential. A strong cold front is still forecast to move
through the region later today and tonight. With a good supply of
low level moist and unstable air in place across eastern Kentucky,
we can expect widespread showers and storms to fire up and affect
the area this afternoon, this evening, and part of tonight. Their
is still a slight chance of severe weather later today into early
this evening, as the cold front cold moves through. Even with a
strong trigger and loads of instability and moisture, one limiting
factor for more widespread severe weather still remains, strong
winds aloft. That being said, the atmosphere will definitely be
supportive for thunderstorm activity this afternoon and this
evening, and a few storms could produce hail, strong winds,
frequent cloud to ground lightning, and heavy rainfall that could
lead to localized flooding. We will continue to monitor severe
weather potential through out the morning, and will update the
forecast as needed should severe potential increase at any time.
Showers and storms will continue overnight, with mainly showers
ongoing early Tuesday morning. The rain will continue on Tuesday
across the area, but will gradually taper off from west to east
through out the day, and should be out of eastern Kentucky by
early Tuesday evening.

Winds will be strong and gusty early today into this afternoon,
with southwesterly flow of 10 to 15 mph and gusts of up to 25 mph
expected at times. Temperatures will be extremely warm again
today, as southerly to southwesterly flow continues to dominate.
The mercury is forecast to max out in the upper 80s for most
locations later today. Once the front moves through overnight, we
will see a dramatic change in temperatures, as a cool Canadian
air mass filters into the region behind the departing cold front
and winds shift to the northwest. This influx of cooler air will
lead to lows in the upper 50s for tonight. Tuesday will be much
cooler than today, with highs in the lower 70s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 427 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

An unseasonably cool/dry air mass will be in place over the
region at the start of the period, with surface high pressure
passing through beneath an eastern CONUS upper trough. The high
will migrate eastward as we move through the latter part of the
work week, and warm air advection will work to bring more typical
temperatures back. At the same time, the upper level trough will
weaken as ridging tries to build east from the southern plains and
Rockies. However, another upper trough dropping into the north
central CONUS will flatten any eastward progress of the ridge and
support another cold front to advance southeast toward us at the
end of the week. Low level flow ahead of the front will carry gulf
moisture back into our region from the southwest. The upper
trough is expected to linger over the central CONUS, with the
surface front stalling to our northwest as it becomes strung out
SW/NE parallel to the upper level flow. With ample moisture and
upper level support for precip under the east side of the upper
trough, we may be in for a prolonged threat of wet weather.
Exactly where it sets up will in the end depend on the positioning
of the front and the upper trough, which being nearly a week out,
still is somewhat uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

Showers and thunderstorms are quickly developing across portions
of eastern Kentucky this afternoon. These storms will lead to
quick drops in Vis and Cigs into the IFR or lower range, and they
will also have the potential to produce strong to severe wind
gusts and marginally severe hail. Outside of storms expect gusty
winds at times, but largely VFR skies if you catch a break in
between storms. These storms will move through this afternoon and
evening leaving behind the potential for stratus and fog through
the overnight. This could lead to period of MVFR Cigs and Vis
through the morning on Tuesday. The winds will be SW to begin the
period, but more erratic in thunderstorms. Then becoming more west
and northwest behind the front through the night.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
240 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-222145-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
240 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon into Tonight.

There is a good chance for thunderstorms today, especially this
afternoon and this evening. Some of the storms may produce hail,
severe wind gusts, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.
Torrential downpours could lead to localized flooding. A few
storms will also be possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times Friday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any wind damage and flooding.

AR/HAL/DJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
257 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

KYZ068-069-080-114-116-211930-
Jackson-Clay-Owsley-Rockcastle-Laurel-
257 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LAUREL...WEST
CENTRAL OWSLEY...SOUTHERN JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN ROCKCASTLE AND
NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES...

At 256 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Hare, or near
London, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
London, McKee, Carico, Travellers Rest, Grace, Pittsburg, Zekes
Point, Shop Branch, Maulden, Fogertown, Mummie, Treadway, Tyner,
Privett, Settle Store, Mershons, Chestnutburg, Shepherdtown, Hazel
Patch and Camp Wildcat.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3726 8427 3749 8384 3749 8381 3726 8366
      3710 8417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 241DEG 32KT 3722 8414

DJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
329 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

KYZ106-108-109-111-112-212000-
Lee-Breathitt-Magoffin-Morgan-Wolfe-
329 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...
NORTHWESTERN BREATHITT...WEST CENTRAL MAGOFFIN...NORTHEASTERN LEE AND
WOLFE COUNTIES...

At 328 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Grannie, or
near Campton, moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Campton, Simpson, Burkhart, Lexie, Pence, Pine Ridge, Sellars, Rock
Lick, Vancleve, Moct, Wilhurst, Gosneyville, Bays, High Falls, Lane,
Sewell, Taulbee, Malaga, Netty and Flat.

LAT...LON 3764 8363 3779 8363 3782 8321 3761 8320
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 265DEG 36KT 3770 8357

GEERTSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
346 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

KYZ112-114>117-212015-
Clay-Breathitt-Perry-Owsley-Leslie-
346 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN OWSLEY...
NORTHWESTERN LESLIE...NORTHWESTERN PERRY...SOUTHWESTERN BREATHITT AND
NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES...

At 346 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Mistletoe, or
12 miles southeast of Booneville, moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Buckhorn, Altro, Bush Branch, Seth, Mistletoe, Dryhill, Lamont,
Shoal, Kaliopi, Newfound, Wolf Coal, Barcreek, Confluence, Beech,
Whoopflarea, Dalesburg, Mosley Bend, Chavies, Gobbard and Buckhorn
Lake S.P..

LAT...LON 3719 8366 3737 8372 3744 8330 3723 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 253DEG 33KT 3731 8358

GEERTSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
347 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

KYZ079-083-212030-
Wayne-Pulaski-
347 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WAYNE AND SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI
COUNTIES...

At 346 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Cabell, or 14
miles west of Monticello, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Monticello, Burnside, Parmleysville, Cains Store, Susie, Nancy,
Barrier, Parnell, Pointer, Gregory, Bronston, Slickford, Ritner,
Pulaski County Park, Cabell, Denney, Kidder, Powersburg, Magnum and
Naomi.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3692 8496 3696 8494 3695 8490 3700 8484
      3705 8491 3711 8490 3719 8479 3689 8452
      3686 8459 3685 8457 3684 8459 3680 8458
      3675 8468 3660 8478 3661 8496 3663 8500
      3672 8502 3676 8501 3686 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 256DEG 36KT 3687 8511

GREIF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

KYZ068-069-079-080-212015-
Jackson-Rockcastle-Laurel-Pulaski-
351 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LAUREL...NORTHEASTERN
PULASKI...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...

At 351 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Level Green, or
7 miles southwest of Mount Vernon, moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, McKee, Science Hill, Carico, Donaro, Robinet, Shop
Branch, Bandy, Woodstock, Bradshaw, Horse Lick, Spiro, Wabp,
Hansford, Dabney, Willailla, Hurley, Settle Store, Mershons and Hazel
Patch.

LAT...LON 3733 8452 3745 8396 3726 8391 3726 8394
      3722 8394 3714 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 253DEG 33KT 3728 8442

GEERTSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
406 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

KYZ107-109-110-112-212030-
Breathitt-Floyd-Johnson-Magoffin-
406 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON...
NORTHWESTERN FLOYD...CENTRAL BREATHITT AND MAGOFFIN COUNTIES...

At 406 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Salyersville to Stevenson. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Salyersville, Mason, Fredville, Vail, Gunlock, Oil Springs, Gifford,
Falcon, Carver, Daisydell, Burning Fork, Orchard, Dotson, West
Royalton Station, Carver Station, Blue River, Swamp Branch,
Riceville, Gapville and Evanston.

LAT...LON 3750 8303 3752 8305 3752 8309 3749 8310
      3745 8325 3760 8334 3768 8328 3768 8326
      3770 8325 3771 8326 3777 8314 3785 8289
      3756 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 246DEG 26KT 3774 8308 3757 8325

GEERTSON