Areal Flood Warning 43, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1202 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1202 PM EDT THU JUL 1 2021

Have fine tuned the POP a bit better over the next several hours.
The main area of morning precip is only slowly sinking southward,
but additional development is beginning with diurnal
destabilization across our southern counties. Potential for more
training of precip still exists, and the FFA remains in place.

UPDATE Issued at 710 AM EDT THU JUL 1 2021

Did a quick update to the grids to touch up the near term PoPs and
Wx grids per the latest radar and CAMs trends. Also, added in the
current obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These updates have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 540 AM EDT THU JUL 1 2021

09Z sfc analysis shows a developing cold front approaching
eastern Kentucky from the northwest. This has pushed the high
pressure south of the state and allowed for more convection to
affect the area deep into the night. Currently, most of the
activity is found along and north of Interstate 64 - closer to the
front. Skies are variably overcast above eastern Kentucky with
high clouds spreading south from the more persistent storms along
the front. This is likely keeping the bulk of any fog at bay. In
this environment, temperatures are quite mild and uniform,
generally in the upper 60s to low 70s while dewpoints are running
just as high keeping humidities near 100 percent. Winds are
mostly out of the south to southwest at 5 mph or less - away from
any storms.

The models have come into good agreement aloft through the short
term portion of the forecast. They all depict a large trough
digging southeast through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today
pushing strong height falls through Kentucky along with more
energy impulses at mid levels. The center of the closed low
trough descends into the Mid Atlantic states on Friday keeping the
JKL CWA under the influence of deep cyclonic flow with the core
of its energy washing over the area through evening. Despite this
dynamic pattern, the model spread is fairly tight so have gone
mostly with the NBM's solution for the grids with little in the
way of adjustments needed.

Sensible weather will feature an active 24 hours as a cold front
settles through the area activating the high PW air mass and
promoting training of storm cells. Upper level divergence and
moisture flux will contribute to the heavy rain threat. This will
set the stage for potential flash flooding with basin wide
averages of 1.5 to 3 inches of rain expected into dawn Friday -
some of that coming in a very short amount of time. Accordingly, a
Flash Flood Watch goes into effect early this morning for the
entire area through tonight. The convection today and tonight will
limit the diurnal range with highs significantly lower than
yesterday - in the mid to upper 70s - but lows tonight not far
from this afternoon's temps - though cooler than this morning's
lows. Highs Friday will be just as cool on post-frontal CAA as the
pcpn comes to an end from northwest to southeast through the day
- with even some sunshine returning late.

Only made spot temperature adjustments through the short term.
With the PoPs, adjusted the near term values for the CAMs and
radar trends - but also slowed the clearing out of the pcpn a tad,
tonight into Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 535 AM EDT THU JUL 1 2021

Models are in fair agreement around the overall patter through the
majority of the extended. By Friday night, the axis of the large
trough that was the main driver of our more active weather in the
short term will be off to our east as the trough continues on its
path away from the region. Heights continue to rise through the
weekend as the trough departs and a less amplified/more zonal upper
level pattern begins to take hold. At the surface, developing high
pressure takes hold over the Ohio Valley behind the exiting front.
This generally remains the case through at least the first part of
next week, before more, but less amplified, waves move through the
flow through the middle of the week, bringing along renewed chances
for unsettled weather.

Sensible weather over the holiday weekend will be cool and
comfortable. Dry weather will persist under mostly clear skies
thanks to high pressure and rising heights aloft. Temperatures will
be cool Saturday as northwesterly flow ushers in cooler and drier
air behind the front that passed through the short term. Highs
Saturday only peak in the upper 70s. As we lose some of the
northwest component late in the weekend, temperatures begin to
moderate some. Morning lows Sunday are in the upper 50s and highs
climb into the low 80s. High pressure shifts east as we get through
the early part of the week and into the end of the period and winds
gradually become more southerly to southwesterly, allowing for
temperatures to continue to moderate. Highs get into the upper 80s
to around 90 while lows see a similar increase, getting into the
upper 60s by the end of the period. Rain chances return to the
forecast near the middle of the week as the upper level waves impact
the area. Details are still a bit uncertain at this point, so kept
with the chance PoPs given by the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT THU JUL 1 2021

Passing convection will mainly affect KSYM over the next few
hours, bringing MVFR or lower conditions, at times. Further
south, generally VFR conditions will hold on through at least mid
morning. Convection will then fill in and expand southeast with
time later today, as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
This will allow for widespread MVFR/IFR conditions to set in.
The convection will gradually diminish across the I-64 corridor
towards the end of the day and clear to the southeast through the
night. Winds will generally be light through the first part of
this morning before kicking up to around 5 kts, mainly from the
southwest to west through the rest of the period - but higher in
and near any storms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...GREIF/GEOGERIAN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
410 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-021115-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
410 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms can be expected at times today and tonight as a
cold front slowly moves through the area. The storms will bring
heavy rainfall to a few locations, which enhances the potential
for flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a small chance for thunderstorms in the southeast portion
of the area on Friday.

Thunderstorms will also be possible over much of the area from
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of flooding today
and tonight.

GREIF/HAS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1117 AM EDT THU JUL 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE CLAY CITY         37.87N 83.91W
07/01/2021  M3.25 INCH       POWELL             KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TWENTY-FOUR HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

TAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
310 PM EDT THU JUL 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLOOD            WALTERSVILLE            37.86N 83.94W
07/01/2021                   POWELL             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            ADAMS RIDGE ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

TAB