Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
415 PM EST Wed Dec 8 2021

...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Pre-frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
shift east-southeast across NE FL through early evening with
convective coverage and intensity weakening as upper level
dynamics lift NE of the region and drier air infiltrates from the
west. Strong to isolated storm potential will continue for
portions of NE Florida along and near the I-10 corridor over the
next couple of hours where a nose of surface based instability
that extended inland from the GOMEX (CAPE 1000-1600 J/kg per LAPS
at 20z) will preceded deeper convective cells just ahead of the
surface front. Storms are shallow in nature (little lightning with
decent 500 mb inversion on JAX 12z raob) but there is enough low
level speed shear for gusty winds and potentially brief tornado
spin-ups & landspouts where convergence is maximized.

Most rainfall will fade and be south of Marion county by
midnight, trailed by a cooler and stable low level NNE flow
through daybreak Thursday morning, with lingering cloud cover
expected across much of NE FL with mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies across SE GA by daybreak. Low temperatures will range from
the low/mid 40s across SE GA to the upper 50s to near 60 along the
FL Atlantic coast inland toward Ocala FL where low clouds will
linger. Included patchy fog potential toward daybreak for inland
areas from Gilchrist to Alachua to Marion counties, but with
recent rainfall and clearing skies and weak winds, there could be
some fog across SE GA near the Atlamaha River basin toward
sunrise.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

Mostly dry with a warming trend as high pressure builds north of
the region Thursday under near zonal flow. Thursday night the front
that pushes south across the area tonight morphs into a warm
front ahead of the next frontal system. More widespread fog is
expected Thursday night through early Friday morning as the front
lifts across the area and warmer, more moist southerly flow
develops. Friday the surface high shifts farther offshore of the
eastern seaboard as flow aloft backs WSW as the upper ridge axis
holds across south FL.

Temperatures will moderate from seasonal highs on Thursday in the
mid 60s to low 70s to well above normal highs on Friday under
developing warm air advection pattern into the upper 70s to low
80s. With warmer inland temps and a weak surface pressure pattern,
expect both east coast and west coast sea breezes to develop and
press inland into Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Warm SW flow continues Saturday with another day of above normal
temperatures. Late day rain chances increase as the next cold
front approaches, with the best chance of wetting rainfall
Saturday night as the front settles southward across the local
area. Upper level dynamical support weakens through Saturday night
and transitions to near zonal, with the low level front likely
beginning to stall as it settles across the local area with the
potential for lingering cloud cover across NE FL into Sunday, but
mostly dry conditions expected with little forcing in place.
Monday through Wednesday surface high pressure builds north to
northeast of the region with several days of onshore flow expected
and dry weather, less a few coastal showers by mid-week over the
coastal waters near coastal troughs. Temperatures will moderate
from near to below normal Sunday and Sunday night across inland SE
GA to near to just above normal by midweek under a strengthening
upper level ridge. Freezing temperatures are not expected in the
extended forecast.

&&

.MARINE...

Showers and isolated storms will move south across the waters
through this evening ahead of a cold front. By midnight, mostly
dry conditions are expected as winds transition from northwest to
northeast through early Thursday morning. High pressure will build
north and then northeast Thursday, then a warm front will lift
northward over the area Thursday night. Southerly winds will
prevail Friday and Saturday as a cold front approaches. The front
will move across the local waters late Saturday into Saturday
night. North winds increase to Small Craft Exercise Caution levels
Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds north of the region
and a coastal trough develops offshore of the local Atlantic
coast.

Rip Currents: Elevated rip current risk (Moderate) likely Thursday
with onshore flow.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @NWSJacksonville.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  44  65  53  77  60 /   0   0  10  20   0
SSI  53  66  56  73  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
JAX  54  70  57  78  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
SGJ  59  70  60  77  61 /  20   0  10   0   0
GNV  58  73  59  80  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
OCF  60  76  61  82  61 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
317 PM EST Wed Dec 8 2021

FLZ024-122-124-GAZ153-154-162-163-165-166-264-350-364-082045-
Inland Nassau FL-Coastal Nassau FL-Northern Columbia FL-
Northeastern Charlton GA-Inland Glynn GA-Clinch GA-Inland Camden GA-
Coastal Glynn GA-Western Charlton GA-Echols GA-Coastal Camden GA-
Southern Ware GA-
317 PM EST Wed Dec 8 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Nassau,
Camden, southeastern Glynn, southeastern Echols, southeastern Ware,
southeastern Clinch and northern Charlton Counties through 345 PM
EST...

At 316 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Brunswick to near Needmore. Movement was
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
St. Marys, Kingsland, Brunswick, St. Simons Island, Hilliard,
Folkston, Woodbine, Kings Bay Base, Homeland and Kings Ferry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8125 3110 8137 3080 8142 3057 8190
      3059 8270 3060 8269 3060 8271 3118 8153
      3120 8124
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 260DEG 36KT 3110 8147 3060 8268

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SHASHY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
332 PM EST Wed Dec 8 2021

FLZ020-021-023-024-122-222-GAZ364-082115-
Southern Columbia FL-Baker FL-Hamilton FL-Suwannee FL-
Inland Nassau FL-Northern Columbia FL-Western Charlton GA-
332 PM EST Wed Dec 8 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central Nassau,
northwestern Baker, northern Columbia, northern Suwannee,
southeastern Hamilton and southeastern Charlton Counties through 415
PM EST...

At 332 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing a landspout along a line extending from 7 miles
north of Taylor to 7 miles west of Live Oak. Movement was east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lake City, Live Oak, Callahan, White Springs, Suwannee Springs,
Taylor, Winfield, Suwannee Valley, St. George and Belmont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3027 8324 3058 8252 3056 8183 3015 8257
      3018 8324
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 275DEG 40KT 3054 8234 3029 8310

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SHASHY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
345 PM EST Wed Dec 8 2021

FLZ024-124-GAZ165-166-350-364-082130-
Inland Nassau FL-Coastal Nassau FL-Inland Camden GA-
Western Charlton GA-Coastal Camden GA-Southern Ware GA-
345 PM EST Wed Dec 8 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Nassau,
southern Camden, southern Ware and central Charlton Counties through
430 PM EST...

At 344 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms along a line
extending from 8 miles southwest of Jekyll Island to 10 miles
northwest of St. George. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
St. Marys, Kingsland, Fernandina Beach, Hilliard, Kings Bay Base,
Yulee, Kings Ferry, Cumberland Island and Harrietts Bluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3079 8142 3066 8141 3058 8153 3059 8229
      3101 8148 3100 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 268DEG 33KT 3096 8147 3066 8212

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SHASHY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
425 PM EST Wed Dec 8 2021

FLZ023-030-031-082200-
Baker FL-Union FL-Bradford FL-
425 PM EST Wed Dec 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Bradford, southern Baker and northeastern Union Counties through 500
PM EST...

At 425 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Olustee, or 10 miles east of Lake City, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Macclenny, Glen St. Mary, Sanderson, Olustee and Ellerbee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3031 8246 3036 8205 3010 8205 3011 8245
      3012 8245 3013 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 265DEG 32KT 3021 8247

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SHASHY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
432 PM EST Wed Dec 8 2021

FLZ021-023-030-035-222-082200-
Southern Columbia FL-Baker FL-Union FL-Suwannee FL-Gilchrist FL-
432 PM EST Wed Dec 8 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern
Gilchrist, southwestern Baker, Union, southern Columbia and
southeastern Suwannee Counties through 500 PM EST...

At 432 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing a landspout along a line extending from near
Lulu to 6 miles southwest of Obrien. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Butler, Ichetucknee Spring, Columbia, Fort White, Palestine
Community, Upland Pines, Groves, Providence, Lulu and Branford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3018 8247 3010 8218 2982 8279 2986 8288
      2989 8288 2988 8289 2990 8290 2989 8292
      2990 8291 2992 8293 2993 8292 2996 8293
      2996 8295 2999 8296 3001 8298 3001 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 279DEG 28KT 3016 8250 2999 8302

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SHASHY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
501 PM EST Wed Dec 8 2021

FLZ030-031-033-035-125-132-133-136-222-232-236-325-425-082245-
Southern Columbia FL-Coastal St. Johns FL-Western Clay FL-Union FL-
South Central Duval FL-Bradford FL-Gilchrist FL-Eastern Clay FL-
Eastern Alachua FL-Western Alachua FL-Western Duval FL-
Coastal Duval FL-Inland St. Johns FL-
501 PM EST Wed Dec 8 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern
Gilchrist, Bradford, northwestern Alachua, northwestern St. Johns,
Union, southwestern Columbia, northern Clay and southern Duval
Counties through 545 PM EST...

At 500 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bellair-Meadowbrook Terrace to near Fort
White. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds of 40 to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orange Park, Starke, Lake Butler, Raiford, Worthington Spring,
Mandarin, Fruit Cove, Middleburg, Alachua and High Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3015 8136 2973 8250 2985 8289 2988 8287
      3015 8215 3014 8205 3018 8205 3029 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 284DEG 31KT 3024 8177 2988 8278

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SHASHY