Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1130 AM EST Wed Dec 8 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

Breezy southwesterly winds affect the terminals this afternoon
ahead of a cold front. A line of showers with a few thunderstorms
along the frontal boundary will move southeastward from central
Georgia affecting the terminals after 20Z. A brief period of
gusty winds and MVFR conditions is expected during these showers
through around 01Z, followed by surface winds shifting to
northwesterly around 5 knots. MVFR ceilings will remain possible
through around 06Z, with IFR conditions possible at the inland
northeast FL terminals after 06Z Thursday due to potential fog
formation.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [929 AM EST]...

.Near Term.../through Tonight/...

Cold front will move into SE GA this morning. Low level moisture
will continue to result in fog formation across NE FL this
morning, which will advect northeast with the flow. The fog may
lift a little earlier Today, than the last few days, as wind picks
up ahead of approaching front.

Showers with a few thunderstorms will be possible along the frontal
boundary is it moves southeast across area Today. The front will
move southeast of forecast area this evening, then high pressure
will build to the north northwest overnight. The best upper support
will be across SE GA this morning, thus best chance for thunderstorm
development, with the front weakening as it moves across NE FL.

Highs Today will trend above normal. Cold advection will begin
overnight across SE GA, with lows falling into the middle 40s over
interior portions of SE GA. Elsewhere, lows in the 50s will be
common.

.Short Term.../Thursday through Saturday/...

The frontal boundary will slowly lift back to the north as a warm
front Thursday into Thursday night. The boundary will be just to
the north Friday, as upper wave moves east along it. While can not
completely rule out the chance for a few showers as the warm
front lifts through Thursday into Thursday night, the best chance
will be across interior SE GA as a wave passes along the front.

High pressure will build to the northeast through Friday, then
more toward the east on Saturday, as another front approaches from
the northwest. Current timing pushes this front into western
counties late in the day Saturday, bringing a chance for showers
there. A few thunderstorms will also be possible.

A wedge of cooler air will advect south down the coast Thursday as
high builds to the north. This will lead to a significant gradient
in temperatures, with highs ranging from the middle 60s over coastal
SE GA, to around 80 south of Gainesville. For the rest of this
period, temperatures are expected to be above seasonal averages.

.Long Term.../Saturday night through Tuesday/...

The cold front will weaken as it moves southeast across region
Saturday night, with high pressure building from the northwest
behind it. A few thunderstorms will be possible as the front
passes through.

The high will strengthen as it builds to the north Sunday
through the early part of next week.

Models are depicting the potential for an inverted trough to develop
in the onshore flow pattern. If this trough develops, the
gradient between the high and the trough could lead to a period of
enhanced onshore flow early next week. This potential will
continue to be monitored.

Above normal temperatures expected for Saturday night, with a cooler
than normal day Sunday. Readings will be closer to seasonal averages
for Sunday night and Monday. With the onshore flow pattern, an east
to west temperature gradient will be expected Monday night into
Tuesday.

.Marine...

A cold front will move southeast across the area through this
evening. High pressure will build to the north overnight. High
pressure will build to the northeast Thursday through Friday, then
more toward the east Saturday. A cold front will move across area
late Saturday through Saturday night. High pressure will build to
the north Sunday through the early part of next week.

Rip Currents: SE GA: Low Today, Moderate Thursday
              NE FL: Low Today, Moderate Thursday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  74  46  69  55  79 /  60   0   0  10  20
SSI  75  53  66  57  73 /  60  10   0  10  10
JAX  77  54  70  57  79 /  60  10  10   0   0
SGJ  79  59  72  60  78 /  30  30  10   0   0
GNV  77  57  75  60  81 /  40  20   0   0   0
OCF  78  59  78  60  82 /  30  30  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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