Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
156 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Multi-cell showers and storms have pushed through SSI, JAX, VQQ,
and just about through CRG. Activity is moving through SGJ through
21Z. Instances of IFR or lower and gusty winds expected at SGJ in
the strong storm activity. Weaker showers and storms expected
around GNV rest of the aftn so indicated MVFR for now. Scattered
showers and isolated storms generally anticipated in the evening
hours before letting up overnight. Guidance suggesting development
and expansion of some fog and low stratus moving in from the west
and northwest and showed some IFR ceilings for now after 07Z
through about 13Z. Less activity for TAFs on Saturday with just
VCSH mentioned from now with a northerly wind of about 5-10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [948 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Warm and humid conditions will continue today as low pressure
develops along stalled frontal boundary over South Georgia this
morning and tracks slowly East-Southeast towards the Atlantic
Coastal Waters just off SE GA coast and Brunswick by this evening,
then lastly towards the East-Northeast and into the Western Atlc
by late tonight. While the surface low reflection will be
relatively weak, the mid and upper level shortwave energy passing
just north of the region will enhance lift and divergence aloft
and expect numerous to widespread showers to break out this
morning across inland SE GA and then spread towards coastal SE GA
and most of NE FL during the afternoon hours. A combination of
these features aloft, just enough diurnal heating to push Max
temps into the 80s and Precipitable Water Amounts (PWATs) around 2
inches will combine to produce intense embedded storms ahead of
the trailing cold frontal boundary. These will contain gusty winds
and heavy rainfall, with isolated severe storms with damaging
winds and hail, along with a few storms with some low level
rotation and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially
as the activity reaches a weak East Coast sea breeze front that
will have pushed into to the I-95 corridor. In addition to the
isolated severe potential, the slow movement of the storms could
present some localized flash flood potential along the urban areas
of the I-95 corridor. This storm activity will continue into the
early evening hours until the low pressure pushes offshore and the
trailing frontal boundary makes it to the Atlantic Coast during
the overnight hours with rainfall chances slowly decreasing
through the night as low level winds shift to the Northwest behind
the frontal boundary. Low temps should be able to fall into the
mid/upper 60s for SE GA and upper 60s/lower 70s for NE FL. As the
rainfall ends, and some partial clearing takes place after
midnight over inland areas, expect patchy dense fog formation with
the potential for widespread dense fog in some locations by
sunrise Saturday morning and Dense Fog Advisories may be required.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Drier air and northerly flow will build in over the region the
weekend as ridging amplifies over the northeastern US. PWAT values
with measured amounts ranging between 1.15 and 1.5 inches will
result in a dramatic reduction in convection for the weekend, with
the highest likelihood for isolated to scattered showers occurring
in conjunction with diurnal heating. Northerly surface winds will
result in the afternoon sea breeze reaching inland to near the
I-95 corridor. Daily high temperatures will primarily range within
the lower to mid 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down
into the mid 60s for inland areas and in the upper 60s and lower
70s along the coastline.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Thursday]...

North-northeasterly flow associated with mostly dry air will
gradually become more easterly over the course of next week as
the center of high pressure rotation moves to the northeast across
northern Georgia, with showers expected to develop with daytime
heating primarily along the coast and into north central Florida.
Temperatures will experience a mild warming trend towards the end
of the week with temps rising above the seasonal average.

.MARINE...

Generally variable winds 5-10 knots today as weak low pressure
develops on stationary frontal boundary just north of the waters
and then pushes into the waters this evening and then northeast
late tonight pulling a cold front through the waters with winds
becoming north 10-15 knots for the weekend, then as high pressure
builds north of the waters winds become northeast early next week.
Strong to severe storms can be expected to push into the waters
this afternoon and will continue through the evening hours with
strong winds, small hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents continues today with
surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range and elevated water levels
expected during times of high tide through the weekend.

.HYDROLOGY...

Pockets of heavy rainfall in strong to severe storm activity today
will lead to a localized flash flood threat, mainly in urban
areas along the I-95 corridor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  65  82  63  82  63 /  40  20   0  10   0
SSI  69  82  68  82  70 /  50  40  10  20  10
JAX  68  84  67  84  68 /  50  30  10  20  10
SGJ  69  84  70  83  70 /  70  40  20  30  10
GNV  68  84  65  84  65 /  60  30   0  20   0
OCF  69  86  67  86  66 /  50  30   0  30   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
133 PM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 PM     HEAVY RAIN       JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIO 30.48N 81.71W
10/08/2021  M2.21 INCH       Duval              FL   ASOS

            THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING STATION AT JACKSONVILLE
            INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS MEASURED 2.21 INCHES OF
            RAINFALL THUS FAR

&&

NELSON

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
229 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

FLZ137-140-240-081915-
Central Marion FL-Eastern Putnam FL-Eastern Marion FL-
229 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Marion
and southern Putnam Counties through 315 PM EDT...

At 229 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Salt Springs, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Juniper Springs, Salt Springs, Lake Delancy and Georgetown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2929 8196 2945 8188 2943 8178 2943 8176
      2940 8158 2934 8161 2932 8168 2930 8167
      2929 8165 2927 8164 2915 8170
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 292DEG 11KT 2935 8185

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

23

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