Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
745 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

Much more active day than on Thursday. Currently some LIFR around
GNV but should end in the next couple of hours. Frontal wave
moves along the frontal boundary and pushes convection into
southeast GA by the late morning hours 15-21Z, and the northeast
FL TAF sites by the afternoon hours 17-00Z with predominant MVFR
CIGS and SHRA with VCTS, and have included TEMPO groups to account
for heavy t'storm activity with mainly MVFR VSBYS/CIGS and gusty
winds, but IFR conditions not out of the question, but for now
will leave as MVFR. Current model suite does kick showers/storms
into the Atlc waters during the evening hours in the 00-06Z time
frame and for now have shown some improving conds with higher MVFR
CIGS and back to VCSH for weather coverage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [303 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Warm and humid conditions will continue today as low pressure
develops along stalled frontal boundary over South Georgia this
morning and tracks slowly East-Southeast towards the Atlantic
Coastal Waters just off SE GA coast and Brunswick by this evening,
then lastly towards the East-Northeast and into the Western Atlc
by late tonight. While the surface low reflection will be
relatively weak, the mid and upper level shortwave energy passing
just north of the region will enhance lift and divergence aloft
and expect numerous to widespread showers to break out this
morning across inland SE GA and then spread towards coastal SE GA
and most of NE FL during the afternoon hours. A combination of
these features aloft, just enough diurnal heating to push Max
temps into the 80s and Precipitable Water Amounts (PWATs) around 2
inches will combine to produce intense embedded storms ahead of
the trailing cold frontal boundary. These will contain gusty winds
and heavy rainfall, with isolated severe storms with damaging
winds and hail, along with a few storms with some low level
rotation and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially
as the activity reaches a weak East Coast sea breeze front that
will have pushed into to the I-95 corridor. In addition to the
isolated severe potential, the slow movement of the storms could
present some localized flash flood potential along the urban areas
of the I-95 corridor. This storm activity will continue into the
early evening hours until the low pressure pushes offshore and the
trailing frontal boundary makes it to the Atlantic Coast during
the overnight hours with rainfall chances slowly decreasing
through the night as low level winds shift to the Northwest behind
the frontal boundary. Low temps should be able to fall into the
mid/upper 60s for SE GA and upper 60s/lower 70s for NE FL. As the
rainfall ends, and some partial clearing takes place after
midnight over inland areas, expect patchy dense fog formation with
the potential for widespread dense fog in some locations by
sunrise Saturday morning and Dense Fog Advisories may be required.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Drier air and northerly flow will build in over the region the
weekend as ridging amplifies over the northeastern US. PWAT values
with measured amounts ranging between 1.15 and 1.5 inches will
result in a dramatic reduction in convection for the weekend, with
the highest likelihood for isolated to scattered showers occurring
in conjunction with diurnal heating. Northerly surface winds will
result in the afternoon sea breeze reaching inland to near the
I-95 corridor. Daily high temperatures will primarily range within
the lower to mid 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down
into the mid 60s for inland areas and in the upper 60s and lower
70s along the coastline.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Thursday]...

North-northeasterly flow associated with mostly dry air will
gradually become more easterly over the course of next week as
the center of high pressure rotation moves to the northeast across
northern Georgia, with showers expected to develop with daytime
heating primarily along the coast and into north central Florida.
Temperatures will experience a mild warming trend towards the end
of the week with temps rising above the seasonal average.

.MARINE...

Generally variable winds 5-10 knots today as weak low pressure
develops on stationary frontal boundary just north of the waters
and then pushes into the waters this evening and then northeast
late tonight pulling a cold front through the waters with winds
becoming north 10-15 knots for the weekend, then as high pressure
builds north of the waters winds become northeast early next week.
Strong to severe storms can be expected to push into the waters
this afternoon and will continue through the evening hours with
strong winds, small hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents continues today with
surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range and elevated water levels
expected during times of high tide through the weekend.

.HYDROLOGY...

Pockets of heavy rainfall in strong to severe storm activity today
will lead to a localized flash flood threat, mainly in urban
areas along the I-95 corridor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  83  65  82  63  82 /  70  40  20   0  10
SSI  82  69  82  68  82 /  90  50  40  10  20
JAX  86  68  84  67  84 /  90  50  30  10  20
SGJ  85  69  84  70  83 /  90  70  40  20  30
GNV  87  68  84  65  84 /  80  60  30   0  20
OCF  87  69  86  67  86 /  90  50  30   0  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
849 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

GAZ132-134-135-149-151-163-250-081315-
Pierce GA-Bacon GA-Atkinson GA-Appling GA-Clinch GA-Coffee GA-
Northern Ware GA-
849 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Coffee,
central Pierce, Atkinson, northwestern Ware, Bacon, northwestern
Clinch and south central Appling Counties through 915 AM EDT...

At 849 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northwest of Bristol to near
Willacoochee. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alma, Pearson, Willacoochee, Patterson, Nicholls, Offerman, Pebble
Hill, Jamestown, Bristol and Cogdell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3161 8233 3141 8206 3104 8297 3118 8297
      3119 8305 3123 8305 3128 8303 3131 8306
      3133 8306 3134 8307 3136 8310 3139 8312
TIME...MOT...LOC 1249Z 331DEG 12KT 3155 8232 3130 8304

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SHASHY

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