Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
325 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A cold frontal boundary will stall to the north of the area today.
The 12Z sounding this morning showed deep west to northwest flow
throughout the column. Deep moisture was prevalent as well, with
precipitable water values near 2 inches. So far today, convective
activity has been mainly focused across northeast Florida south of
I-10 as the Gulf coast seabreeze has been making its way inland.
We are over the last hour or so starting to finally see storms
bubble up south of the slowly moving front. This activity will
continue to spread across the entire region, lasting well into
the overnight hours before dissipating. Locally heavy rainfall and
flooding will be the biggest threats from storms today, with the
heaviest rainfall likely across southeast Georgia. 1-2 inches of
rain with locally higher amounts are expected across southeast
Georgia. Much of southeast Georgia has been below normal for
rainfall over the past week, so will hold off on any flood watches
for now. The delayed start to convection will lead to hot
temperatures today, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s.
Heat indices will be 103-108F.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The front will stall near/north of the Altamaha River overnight,
and remain quasi-stationary to our north for the next couple of
days. Our area will remain in the warm, humid airmass south of
this frontal boundary, so numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday, with storms
starting to develop near the Gulf coast in the morning, spreading
across the area through the afternoon hours and lingering into
the evening hours. With heavy cloud cover and enhanced coverage of
storms Tuesday and Wednesday, daytime temperatures will only peak
in the low to mid 80s, upper 80s along the Northeast Florida
coastline and near Ocala. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Low level flow will be mostly from the southwest still through
the period, with a ribbon of 2+ inch PWATs hanging over the region
and a series of short wave troughs ejecting through the broad
upper trough to our north. This should support the development of
numerous to widespread showers through at least Saturday. As we
head into next week, the upper level trough should lift
northeastward as ridging nudges westward towards us, allowing PoPs
and temps to trend closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

Numerous to widespread showers and storms will impact the TAF
sites this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Showers/storms
will then move quickly in from the Gulf on Tuesday, impacting the
TAF sites in the morning hours. Restrictions are expected
in/around showers/storms. Southwest winds will prevail this
afternoon, except for a weak east coast sea breeze at the coastal
TAF sites. Light winds are expected overnight, and southwest winds
5-10 knots are then expected through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...

A weak frontal boundary will slowly sink south towards our Georgia
coastal waters tonight and remain stalled near our area for the
next several days. South of this boundary, we will see mostly
west-southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with 2 to 3 foot seas
and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Rip Currents: Offshore flow will continue a low risk of rip
currents at the Atlantic Beaches of NE FL/SE GA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A weak, quasi-stationary frontal boundary is draped across central
Georgia today and will slowly sink south over the next couple days.
Weak winds in place along/near that boundary over southeast Georgia
will lead to low daytime dispersions. Other than that, the area
will stay in the warm, moist airmass south of the boundary, keeping
RH well above critical thresholds and preventing any red flag
conditions from developing.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rainfall totals of 3-6 inches this week will likely
produce main stem river flooding across basins in SE GA and will
exacerbate river flooding already ongoing across NE FL basins
including having to keep a close eye on the Black Creek Basin.
Areal flooding of rural portions of SE GA and inland North FL will
likely require the issuance of a Flood Watch for SE GA and
portions of NE FL sometime during the Tuesday through Thursday
time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  72  83  70  83  70 /  90  90  70  90  50
SSI  76  86  75  86  75 /  50  70  70  90  50
JAX  75  86  73  85  73 /  40  70  80  90  40
SGJ  74  88  74  86  74 /  40  70  70  80  40
GNV  74  84  73  84  72 /  60  80  80  80  40
OCF  74  86  74  85  73 /  50  80  80  80  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
522 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

FLZ024-GAZ165-264-364-022215-
Inland Nassau FL-Northeastern Charlton GA-Inland Camden GA-
Western Charlton GA-
522 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NASSAU...
SOUTHWESTERN CAMDEN AND NORTHEASTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
EDT...

* At 522 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Homeland, or 7 miles north of
  Folkston, moving south at 10 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Folkston, Homeland, Kings Ferry and Winokur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3073 8212 3106 8204 3106 8198 3105 8194
      3106 8194 3106 8183 3071 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 002DEG 10KT 3094 8196

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
530 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

GAZ149-163-250-350-022215-
Atkinson GA-Clinch GA-Northern Ware GA-Southern Ware GA-
530 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ATKINSON...WEST
CENTRAL WARE AND NORTHERN CLINCH COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

* At 530 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Homerville, moving northeast at
  20 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Homerville, Argyle, Du Pont, Cogdell, Manor and Millwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3076 8270 3095 8296 3130 8266 3110 8238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 218DEG 16KT 3099 8274

23

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
536 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE SAINT AUGUSTINE    29.86N 81.26W
08/02/2021  M39 MPH          AMZ454             FL   C-MAN STATION

            CMAN SAUF1 AT ST AUGUSTINE BEACH REPORTED A GUST TO 34
            KNOTS / 39 MPH FROM 160 DEGREES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
538 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     LIGHTNING        1 NNE FLAGLER BEACH     29.48N 81.13W
08/02/2021                   FLAGLER            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A STRUCTURE FIRE
            NEAR SOUTH 7TH STREET IN FLAGLER BEACH DUE
            TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE AT 2:25 PM.

&&

KB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
616 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

GAZ149-163-250-350-364-022300-
Atkinson GA-Clinch GA-Western Charlton GA-Northern Ware GA-
Southern Ware GA-
616 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ATKINSON...CENTRAL
WARE...NORTHERN CLINCH AND NORTHWESTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 700
PM EDT...

* At 615 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Sparks to 6 miles south of Homerville. Movement was east at 20 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Homerville, Argyle, Du Pont, Cogdell and Manor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3105 8216 3104 8215 3090 8271 3097 8297
      3118 8297 3119 8305 3123 8305 3128 8303
      3128 8305 3130 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 252DEG 17KT 3116 8349 3095 8272

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
636 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

GAZ132>134-022315-
Bacon GA-Coffee GA-Jeff Davis GA-
636 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COFFEE...NORTHWESTERN
BACON AND SOUTHWESTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

* At 636 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Broxton, moving northeast at 25
  mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Douglas, Broxton, Ambrose, West Green and Denton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3175 8253 3175 8255 3174 8255 3173 8252
      3171 8252 3171 8251 3157 8244 3146 8302
      3155 8307 3156 8306 3161 8306 3162 8304
      3182 8256
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 247DEG 20KT 3157 8287

23