Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
325 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A cold frontal boundary will stall to the north of the area today.
The 12Z sounding this morning showed deep west to northwest flow
throughout the column. Deep moisture was prevalent as well, with
precipitable water values near 2 inches. So far today, convective
activity has been mainly focused across northeast Florida south of
I-10 as the Gulf coast seabreeze has been making its way inland.
We are over the last hour or so starting to finally see storms
bubble up south of the slowly moving front. This activity will
continue to spread across the entire region, lasting well into
the overnight hours before dissipating. Locally heavy rainfall and
flooding will be the biggest threats from storms today, with the
heaviest rainfall likely across southeast Georgia. 1-2 inches of
rain with locally higher amounts are expected across southeast
Georgia. Much of southeast Georgia has been below normal for
rainfall over the past week, so will hold off on any flood watches
for now. The delayed start to convection will lead to hot
temperatures today, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s.
Heat indices will be 103-108F.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The front will stall near/north of the Altamaha River overnight,
and remain quasi-stationary to our north for the next couple of
days. Our area will remain in the warm, humid airmass south of
this frontal boundary, so numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday, with storms
starting to develop near the Gulf coast in the morning, spreading
across the area through the afternoon hours and lingering into
the evening hours. With heavy cloud cover and enhanced coverage of
storms Tuesday and Wednesday, daytime temperatures will only peak
in the low to mid 80s, upper 80s along the Northeast Florida
coastline and near Ocala. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Low level flow will be mostly from the southwest still through
the period, with a ribbon of 2+ inch PWATs hanging over the region
and a series of short wave troughs ejecting through the broad
upper trough to our north. This should support the development of
numerous to widespread showers through at least Saturday. As we
head into next week, the upper level trough should lift
northeastward as ridging nudges westward towards us, allowing PoPs
and temps to trend closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

Numerous to widespread showers and storms will impact the TAF
sites this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Showers/storms
will then move quickly in from the Gulf on Tuesday, impacting the
TAF sites in the morning hours. Restrictions are expected
in/around showers/storms. Southwest winds will prevail this
afternoon, except for a weak east coast sea breeze at the coastal
TAF sites. Light winds are expected overnight, and southwest winds
5-10 knots are then expected through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...

A weak frontal boundary will slowly sink south towards our Georgia
coastal waters tonight and remain stalled near our area for the
next several days. South of this boundary, we will see mostly
west-southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with 2 to 3 foot seas
and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Rip Currents: Offshore flow will continue a low risk of rip
currents at the Atlantic Beaches of NE FL/SE GA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A weak, quasi-stationary frontal boundary is draped across central
Georgia today and will slowly sink south over the next couple days.
Weak winds in place along/near that boundary over southeast Georgia
will lead to low daytime dispersions. Other than that, the area
will stay in the warm, moist airmass south of the boundary, keeping
RH well above critical thresholds and preventing any red flag
conditions from developing.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rainfall totals of 3-6 inches this week will likely
produce main stem river flooding across basins in SE GA and will
exacerbate river flooding already ongoing across NE FL basins
including having to keep a close eye on the Black Creek Basin.
Areal flooding of rural portions of SE GA and inland North FL will
likely require the issuance of a Flood Watch for SE GA and
portions of NE FL sometime during the Tuesday through Thursday
time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  72  83  70  83  70 /  90  90  70  90  50
SSI  76  86  75  86  75 /  50  70  70  90  50
JAX  75  86  73  85  73 /  40  70  80  90  40
SGJ  74  88  74  86  74 /  40  70  70  80  40
GNV  74  84  73  84  72 /  60  80  80  80  40
OCF  74  86  74  85  73 /  50  80  80  80  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
352 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W MAYPORT             30.39N 81.48W
08/02/2021  M45.00 MPH       Duval              FL   MESONET

            WIND GUST TO 45 MPH AT WEATHERFLOW SITE ON BUCK ISLAND.

&&
THIS IS AN UPDATE OF THE PRIOR REPORT.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
359 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

GAZ132-149-163-250-022045-
Atkinson GA-Clinch GA-Coffee GA-Northern Ware GA-
359 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COFFEE...ATKINSON...
NORTHWESTERN WARE AND NORTHWESTERN CLINCH COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

* At 359 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 8 miles south of Willacoochee,
  moving east at 15 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Douglas, Pearson, Willacoochee, Millwood and Axson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 8314 3148 8311 3153 8307 3160 8267
      3119 8260 3113 8297 3119 8297 3119 8305
      3123 8305 3128 8303 3131 8306 3134 8307
      3136 8310 3139 8311 3140 8314 3143 8314
      3146 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 257DEG 14KT 3121 8300

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
407 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

GAZ152-165-250-264-364-022100-
Northeastern Charlton GA-Inland Camden GA-Western Charlton GA-
Brantley GA-Northern Ware GA-
407 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CAMDEN...
SOUTHWESTERN BRANTLEY...EAST CENTRAL WARE AND NORTHEASTERN CHARLTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

* At 407 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Race Pond, or 12 miles
  southwest of Nahunta, moving southeast at 20 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Folkston, Homeland, Hickox, Race Pond and Winokur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3085 8181 3083 8188 3083 8190 3082 8191
      3082 8193 3083 8194 3082 8194 3083 8195
      3082 8196 3081 8196 3076 8214 3109 8230
      3117 8201
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 332DEG 16KT 3106 8211

23

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
411 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLOOD            5 NNW GAINESVILLE       29.73N 82.37W
08/02/2021                   ALACHUA            FL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA OF
            MINOR FLOODING WITH UP TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
            PONDING OVER YARDS IN NW GAINESVILLE NEAR NW
            84TH PLACE AND US 441.

&&

KB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
414 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

FLZ035-222-236-022100-
Southern Columbia FL-Western Alachua FL-Gilchrist FL-
414 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILCHRIST...WESTERN ALACHUA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

* At 413 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Trenton, moving east at 20 mph.

* Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Trenton, Bell, High Springs, Archer and Newberry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2972 8294 2973 8295 2975 8294 2976 8295
      2978 8294 2991 8260 2952 8245 2952 8256
      2954 8256 2953 8265 2956 8266 2956 8275
      2958 8276 2958 8278 2959 8292 2969 8296
      2970 8295 2970 8294 2972 8296
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 262DEG 17KT 2962 8282

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
415 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

GAZ132>135-022100-
Bacon GA-Appling GA-Coffee GA-Jeff Davis GA-
415 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COFFEE...
NORTHWESTERN BACON...JEFF DAVIS AND NORTHWESTERN APPLING COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

* At 415 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Snipesville, or 7 miles
  southwest of Hazlehurst, moving east at 20 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Baxley, Hazlehurst, Broxton, Graham, Plant Hatch, Snipesville,
  Denton and Pine Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3195 8239 3196 8238 3194 8238 3193 8232
      3195 8231 3164 8227 3163 8290 3182 8281
      3184 8278 3185 8279 3186 8276 3192 8268
      3193 8259 3196 8256 3195 8249 3195 8248
      3196 8249 3196 8250 3197 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 262DEG 17KT 3177 8266

23