Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
329 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...TROPICAL STORM ELSA TO MOVE ACROSS NE FL/SE GA ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING THE THREAT OF FLOODING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...

.NEAR TERM [Tonight through Wednesday]...Strengthening Tropical
Storm Elsa will track up the west coast of Florida tonight and
then move inland along the north Florida Gulf coast early
Wednesday morning. Elsa will move across ne Fl and se Ga into
Wednesday evening. A surge in tropical moisture and increasing
shear/helicity will bring the threat of flooding rainfall and
isolated tornadoes late tonight through Wednesday. Rainfall
amounts are expected to be in the 3-5 inch range with isolated
amounts up to 8 inches possible.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday night through Friday Night]...
T.S. Elsa will move into the Carolinas Wednesday night with rain
ending over se Ga/ne Fl overnight. A moist sw flow in wake of Elsa
will prevail over the area Thursday through Friday. Scattered to
numerous storms are expected each afternoon and evening. Temperatures
will be close to average.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Tuesday]...Subtropical high pressure
ridge from the western Atlantic across south Florida on Saturday will
build north over the area Sunday and Monday and then into the
Carolinas on Tuesday. This will result in a decrease in rain
chances with an increase in daytime temperatures early next week
to near climatological levels. Enough moisture will remain over
the area for at least scattered diurnal convection each afternoon
high temperatures in the lower 90s.

&&

.MARINE...Tropical Storm Elsa will track northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico tonight and make landfall on the Florida Gulf
coast early Wednesday morning. Elsa will track across northeast
Florida and southeast Georgia through Wednesday departing to the
north Wednesday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions will
progress south to north across across the FL waters after
midnight through sunrise Wed morning, with the best potential of
Tropical Storm force winds focused across the GA waters where a
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Winds and seas will decrease
in wake of Elsa with a southwest flow developing Thursday through
the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today with a high risk on
Wednesday as T.S. Elsa impacts the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...River flooding will continue on the Santa Fe and St.
Marys Rivers the next several days. Heavy rainfall from Tropical
Storm Elsa will likely increase and extend river flooding.
Localized flooding will also develop especially in some flood
prone and urban areas through Wednesday evening. A flood watch is
in effect for all of ne Fl/se Ga.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  73  81  71  86  72 /  60 100  70  60  20
SSI  78  82  75  88  76 /  80 100  80  50  20
JAX  75  82  72  88  73 /  90 100  60  50  10
SGJ  77  84  74  88  74 /  90 100  50  50  10
GNV  74  80  72  87  73 / 100 100  50  50  10
OCF  74  80  72  88  73 / 100 100  50  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for Baker-Bradford-
     Central Marion-Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-
     Coastal St. Johns-Eastern Alachua-Eastern Clay-Eastern
     Marion-Eastern Putnam-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Flagler-
     Inland Nassau-Inland St. Johns-Northern Columbia-South
     Central Duval-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Trout River-Union-
     Western Alachua-Western Clay-Western Duval-Western Marion-
     Western Putnam.

     Tropical Storm Watch for Inland Nassau-Western Clay-Western
     Duval.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Baker-Bradford-Central Marion-Eastern
     Alachua-Eastern Marion-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Northern Columbia-
     Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Union-Western Alachua-Western
     Marion.

GA...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for Appling-Atkinson-
     Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-
     Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Northeastern
     Charlton-Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware-Wayne-Western
     Charlton.

     Tropical Storm Watch for Brantley-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal
     Glynn-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Northeastern
     Charlton-Southern Ware-Western Charlton.

AM...Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to
     Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA
     to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
239 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

FLZ020-GAZ162-163-061930-
Hamilton FL-Clinch GA-Echols GA-
239 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL HAMILTON...ECHOLS
AND CENTRAL CLINCH COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

* At 239 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Statenville, moving northwest
  at 25 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Homerville, Jennings, Fargo, Statenville, Du Pont, Mayday and
  Needmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3079 8313 3080 8313 3081 8310 3083 8310
      3083 8309 3085 8309 3085 8301 3086 8301
      3087 8297 3100 8297 3107 8262 3066 8252
      3058 8311 3063 8314
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 150DEG 21KT 3069 8300

NGUYEN

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