Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
308 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.Short Term.../through Tuesday/...

Stalled frontal boundary will persist across area this afternoon,
and will be a focus for diurnally driven convection. In addition the
sea breezes will also provide sources for convergence. Expect
greatest coverage of convective activity across NE FL due to
location of frontal boundary. Due to the expected slow movement
of convection, periods of heavy rainfall anticipated, especially
across NE FL.

The boundary will dissipate overnight, with convection diminishing
around midnight. Lower chances for convection expected for Monday,
with this activity largely driven by diurnal instability, and
east coast sea breeze interactions.

Another cold front will move into southeastern US Tuesday providing
a prevailing flow from the southwest. This will keep the east coast
sea breeze from pushing inland. Convection will be limited in
coverage again Tuesday, with mainly diurnally driven activity.

Overnight lows will be near normal this period. Highs will trend
below normal on Monday, then near normal on Tuesday.

&&

.Long Term.../Tuesday night through Sunday/...

Cold frontal boundary will sink south across forecast area Tuesday
night, becoming stalled near the GA/FL line Wednesday, where it will
linger through Wednesday night. The front will dissipate during the
day Thursday. Better moisture will be south of the boundary, so
best convective focus over NE FL through Thursday.

High pressure will be to the east, with troughing to the north late
in the week through the weekend, with isolated to scattered
convection expected.

&&

.Marine...

A frontal boundary will remain stalled over region this afternoon,
and dissipate overnight. Another cold front will move into
southeastern US Tuesday, then stall across area Tuesday night
through Wednesday night, before dissipating Thursday. The region
will be between high pressure to the east and a trough of low
pressure to the north late in the week through the weekend.

Rip Currents: SE GA: Low through Monday
              NE FL: Low through Monday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  70  89  72  94  71 /  20  20  10  30  10
SSI  73  81  75  90  76 /  40  30  20  30  10
JAX  71  85  72  92  72 /  50  40  20  40  20
SGJ  71  83  72  89  74 /  70  50  20  40  20
GNV  71  88  71  88  72 /  70  50  40  50  30
OCF  71  88  72  87  74 /  40  50  40  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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