Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
406 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

.NEAR TERM [Tonight through Wednesday]...
Earlier convection and heavy rain have decreased as warm front
has lifted north in se Ga and mid- level trough has shifted off
the se coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through the early evening hours over our southern zones of ne Fl where
seabreezes and higher moisture/instability exists. Rain chances
should end by around midnight with a chance of fog and sea fog
late tonight and Wednesday morning due to light winds and
increased low level moisture with passage of warm front. Low
temperatures will be warmer with lows in the low/mid 60s. The
area will be in the warm sector on Wednesday with temperatures
reaching the mid/upper 80s along with higher humidity. Scattered
afternoon showers and storms will be possible mainly over eastern
zones where the east coast seabreeze front will be located.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday night through Friday night]...
Upper level trough will push a cold front through the area Wednesday
night. The front will exit our area Thursday morning with strong
cold air advection in its wake on Thursday. The front will produce
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms Wednesday evening mainly
over se Georgia where better lift and moisture will be located.
Sunny and breezy conditions for Thursday as strong high pressure
builds into the area. Thursday will be much cooler with high
temperatures mostly in the 60s. Colder Thursday night with breezy
northerly winds. Lows will be in the upper 30s north to mid 40s
south. Wind chills by early Friday morning will be in the
mid/upper 30s for most of the area. Friday will be cold again with
high temperatures only in the lower 60s with breezy winds
especially near the coast. Friday night will be cold again but
with lighter winds.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Tuesday]...Cold conditions for
Saturday morning with the chance of early morning patchy frost
for inland southeast Ga counties. Minimum temperatures will be in
the mid 30s over inland se Ga. Surface high pressure ridge will
push off the se coast this weekend providing an onshore flow into
early next week. Dry weather is expected through the period as a
dry wnw flow aloft persists. Temperatures will be below average on
Saturday and then moderating back to near average Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front will move southeast across region Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. A strong area of high pressure will
build from the northwest Thursday. The center of this high to the
northwest will settle closer to the region through Friday, then to
the north Friday night through Saturday. The high will weaken as
it builds more toward the northeast Sunday through early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  62  86  51  62  37 /  10  10  30   0   0
SSI  64  80  56  66  42 /  10  30  20   0   0
JAX  65  86  56  67  41 /   0  30  10   0   0
SGJ  66  83  59  69  46 /  10  50  10   0   0
GNV  63  86  57  69  41 /  50  30  10   0   0
OCF  66  88  61  73  42 /  50  40  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
120 PM EDT TUE MAR 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WNW ICHETUCKNEE SPRIN 29.98N 82.81W
03/30/2021  M3.22 INCH       Suwannee           FL   PUBLIC

            PRIVATE WEATHER STATION MEASURED A STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
            OF 3.22 INCHES SINCE THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY.

1230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NE FORT WHITE         29.97N 82.67W
03/30/2021  M3.89 INCH       Columbia           FL   PUBLIC

            PRIVATE WEATHER STATION MEASURED A STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
            OF 3.89 INCHES SINCE THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY.

1230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 N WORTHINGTON SPRINGS 30.01N 82.44W
03/30/2021  M2.89 INCH       Union              FL   PUBLIC

            PRIVATE WEATHER STATION MEASURED A STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
            OF 2.89 INCHES SINCE THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY.

1230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE LAKE BUTLER       30.03N 82.32W
03/30/2021  M4.29 INCH       Union              FL   PUBLIC

            PRIVATE WEATHER STATION MEASURED A STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
            OF 4.29 INCHES SINCE THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY.

1230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SE RAIFORD            30.01N 82.18W
03/30/2021  M3.21 INCH       Bradford           FL   PUBLIC

            PRIVATE WEATHER STATION MEASURED A STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
            OF 3.21 INCHES SINCE THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY.

1230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 WNW ICHETUCKNEE SPRIN 29.99N 82.85W
03/30/2021  M3.35 INCH       Suwannee           FL   PUBLIC

            PRIVATE WEATHER STATION MEASURED A STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
            OF 3.35 INCHES SINCE THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

NELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
254 PM EDT TUE MAR 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE NEW RIVER          29.98N 82.24W
03/30/2021  M4.61 INCH       BRADFORD           FL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION NRTF1 2.0 NE NEW
            RIVER.

&&

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
527 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

FLZ035-302215-
Gilchrist FL-
527 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GILCHRIST COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM EDT...

* At 527 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Trenton, moving northeast at 10
  mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall
  is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Trenton and Bell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2982 8289 2970 8268 2958 8281 2958 8286
      2959 8286 2959 8291 2966 8295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 215DEG 10KT 2967 8287

KB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
553 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

FLZ240-340-302245-
Central Marion FL-Western Marion FL-
553 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM EDT...

* At 553 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Ocala Airport, or 7 miles
  northwest of Ocala, moving northeast at 10 mph.

* Wind gusts up to 50 mph and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Ocala, Sparr, Anthony, Ocala Airport, Reddick, McIntosh and Lowell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2923 8239 2946 8223 2944 8221 2943 8221
      2942 8220 2942 8218 2928 8200 2911 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 220DEG 8KT 2923 8226

KB