Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
145 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Through the daytime Sunday: Scattered convection will continue
through early this evening, most concentrated south of I-20. A few
stronger wind gusts will be possible in some of these rain bands.
Most precip will taper off not long after sunset as diurnal
instability wanes. Much of the night will be dry, but as Hurricane
Ida continues to strengthen and approach the coast, outer bands
may begin to spread inland across South MS by early Sunday
morning... mainly impacting areas south of I-20 through midday
with coverage increasing farther northward into the afternoon.
While the core of strongest wind will still be south of our area
during the day Sunday, some tropical storm force wind gusts can't
be ruled out in stronger rain bands, especially farther south in
the area. In addition, given the strengthening low level wind
fields, we'll also have to begin monitoring the tornado threat as
early as the daytime hours Sunday. We have begun to upgrade the
Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning over the southern
half of the area. Additional expansion is possible as Ida draws
closer and additional areas fall within the 36 hour time frame for
a warning. /DL/

Sunday Night through Next Week...

The main focus through the extended forecast will be Hurricane
Ida and the impacts to the ArkLaMiss region. Hurricane Ida made
its way across Cuba last night and is now tracking northwest as
it makes its way into the central parts of the Gulf of Mexico.
Due to warm ocean water temperatures, Ida is expected to rapidly
intensify as it tracks through the Gulf and expected to become a
Major Hurricane right as it's making landfall. The current NHC
track has not changed much. Ida is still expected to make landfall
along the coast of Louisiana.

Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday across
the central Gulf coast and inland areas of Mississippi and
Louisiana. This will result in flash flooding and as the core of
the storm crosses onshore, tropical storm to near hurricane force
winds will be possible across portions of south and central
Mississippi, southeast Arkansas, and northeast Louisiana. Up to
65mph winds can be expected for portions of central and southwest
Mississippi, and all areas elsewhere within our CWA can expect
winds up to 45mph. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for
parishes in northeast Louisiana, central and portions of south
west Mississippi including Hinds and Warren counties. A Tropical
Storm Warning is also now in effect for counties along the Highway
84 corridor including Jefferson Davis, Jones, and Lamar counties
and parishes in Louisiana including Concordia. Additional portions
of the watch area may be upgraded to a warning later this
afternoon.

Not only is Hurricane Ida expected to bring dangerous winds, the
threat for heavy rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding. 4-8
inches of rain can be expected for our entire area Sunday through
Tuesday with possibly locally higher amounts! A Flash Flood Watch
has been issued for our entire area. The Watch goes into effect
for portions of south Mississippi beginning Sunday evening and
everywhere else the Watch will begin Monday morning.

Often times hurricanes bring multi-hazard impacts. So in the
midst of flooding and wind as outer bands begin to come onshore,
isolated tornadoes will also be possible. The threat for
tornadoes will continue into Monday.

We suggest the public have multiple ways of receiving warnings,
watches, and all other updated forecast information. Examples are
NOAA weather radio, following local NWS social media accounts, and
tuning into your local broadcast mets on television. Make sure you
have a plan in place!

By Tuesday afternoon/evening Hurricane Ida is expected to have moved
east of our area and mid-level ridging is expected to set in bringing
nicer weather to the region./JNE/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions prevail across most of the region this afternoon
after a patchy MVFR deck through the morning hours. Sct SHRA and
TS have begun to develop across east MS and will increase through
the afternoon hours, tapering off early this evening. As Hurricane
Ida approaches the Gulf Coast, rain bands will begin to spread
across the region on Sunday, first impacting the PIB/HBG area as
early as the morning hours, then reaching the I-20 corridor by
afternoon. MVFR ceilings will be possible by morning across
southeast MS and easterly winds will become increasingly gusty
through the day, especially across south MS. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  73  90  72 /  55  22  77  75
Meridian      91  72  88  71 /  58  23  82  73
Vicksburg     94  75  92  75 /  37  27  69  71
Hattiesburg   90  75  83  74 /  80  28 100  94
Natchez       92  73  88  72 /  55  28  80  95
Greenville    94  74  93  74 /  20  18  54  39
Greenwood     94  74  94  73 /  25  16  58  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning
     for MSZ018-019-025>059.

     Tropical Storm Watch for MSZ040>043-047>050-053>057-059.

     Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ060>066-072>074.

     Flash Flood Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
     for MSZ060>066-072>074.

LA...Flash Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

     Tropical Storm Watch for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025.

     Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ026.

AR...Flash Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning
     for ARZ074-075.

&&

DL/JNE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
457 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

ARZ074-MSZ018-292200-
Ashley-Bolivar-
457 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Sunday

Sunday, areas of flash flooding possible. Some roads could be
flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened
by high water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

Hurricane Ida is forecast to track northwest toward the Louisiana
coast and makelandfall Sunday night. Based on the latest forecast
from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Ida will likely
bring high winds, heavy rainfall, and possibletornadoes to the
outlook area from Sunday Night through Tuesday. Power outages and
downed trees can be expected, especially over southern portions
of the area. Heavy rainfall and areas of flash flooding can also
be expected across the entire outlook area. And there will be a
marginal risk for mainly Monday into Monday night.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Friday.

ARZ075-MSZ019-025>039-044>046-051-052-058-292200-
Chicot-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-
Winston-Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-Clarke-
457 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and
north central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Sunday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Sunday

Sunday, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts. A tornado cannot
be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Sunday, areas of flash flooding possible. Some roads could be
flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened
by high water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

Hurricane Ida is forecast to track northwest toward the Louisiana
coast and makelandfall Sunday night. Based on the latest forecast
from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Ida will likely
bring high winds, heavy rainfall, and possibletornadoes to the
outlook area from Sunday Night through Tuesday. Power outages and
downed trees can be expected, especially over southern portions
of the area. Heavy rainfall and areas of flash flooding can also
be expected across the entire outlook area. And there will be a
marginal risk for mainly Monday into Monday night.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Sunday
through Monday night.

LAZ007-292200-
Morehouse-
457 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Sunday

Sunday, areas of flash flooding possible. Some roads could be
flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened
by high water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

Hurricane Ida is forecast to track northwest toward the Louisiana
coast and makelandfall Sunday night. Based on the latest forecast
from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Ida will likely
bring high winds, heavy rainfall, and possibletornadoes to the
outlook area from Sunday Night through Tuesday. Power outages and
downed trees can be expected, especially over southern portions
of the area. Heavy rainfall and areas of flash flooding can also
be expected across the entire outlook area. And there will be a
marginal risk for mainly Monday into Monday night.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Friday.

LAZ008-009-015-016-023>025-MSZ040>043-047>050-053>057-059-062>066-
072>074-292200-
West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-
Catahoula-Tensas-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Warren-Hinds-
Rankin-Scott-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Jefferson-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
Forrest-
457 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Sunday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Sunday

Sunday, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts. A tornado cannot
be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Sunday, areas of flash flooding possible. Some roads could be
flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened
by high water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

Hurricane Ida is forecast to track northwest toward the Louisiana
coast and makelandfall Sunday night. Based on the latest forecast
from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Ida will likely
bring high winds, heavy rainfall, and possibletornadoes to the
outlook area from Sunday Night through Tuesday. Power outages and
downed trees can be expected, especially over southern portions
of the area. Heavy rainfall and areas of flash flooding can also
be expected across the entire outlook area. And there will be a
marginal risk for mainly Monday into Monday night.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Sunday
through Monday night.

LAZ026-MSZ060-061-292200-
Concordia-Adams-Franklin MS-
457 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Sunday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Sunday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Sunday

Sunday, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts. A tornado cannot
be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Sunday, areas of flash flooding possible. Some roads could be
flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened
by high water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Sunday afternoon, scattered downed trees and power lines are
likely due to sustained winds over 20 mph and potential wind
gusts greater than 35 mph. Travel could be very difficult for
those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

Hurricane Ida is forecast to track northwest toward the Louisiana
coast and makelandfall Sunday night. Based on the latest forecast
from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Ida will likely
bring high winds, heavy rainfall, and possibletornadoes to the
outlook area from Sunday Night through Tuesday. Power outages and
downed trees can be expected, especially over southern portions
of the area. Heavy rainfall and areas of flash flooding can also
be expected across the entire outlook area. And there will be a
marginal risk for mainly Monday into Monday night.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Sunday
through Monday night.

14

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Significant...Scattered downed trees and power lines are likely
 due to sustained winds over 35 mph and potential wind gusts
 greater than 50 mph.
Elevated...A few downed trees and power lines are possible due
 to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for
 wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those
 in high profile vehicles.
Limited...Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
 sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph.
 High profile vehicles could also be affected.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
341 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

MSZ049-055-056-282115-
Smith MS-Rankin MS-Simpson MS-
341 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Rankin,
northeastern Simpson and west central Smith Counties through 415 PM
CDT...

At 341 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Martinville, or 7 miles northeast of Mendenhall, moving west at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mendenhall, White Oak, Martinville, Cato, D'Lo and Puckett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3203 8961 3189 8963 3193 8994 3211 8990
      3210 8965
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 099DEG 19KT 3200 8976

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
429 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

MSZ043-048-282200-
Hinds MS-Madison MS-
429 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Hinds
and southwestern Madison Counties through 500 PM CDT...

At 429 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Flora, or 13 miles north of Clinton, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Flora and Pocahontas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3250 9058 3251 9055 3250 9052 3252 9052
      3252 9050 3254 9047 3256 9046 3256 9045
      3258 9045 3259 9043 3258 9040 3260 9037
      3255 9019 3244 9030 3248 9060
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 112DEG 19KT 3253 9036

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
459 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

MSZ042-282230-
Yazoo MS-
459 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Yazoo
County through 530 PM CDT...

At 458 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Phoenix, or 17 miles southwest of Yazoo City, moving northwest at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Phoenix, Bentonia and Satartia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3276 9073 3276 9069 3264 9031 3258 9040
      3258 9045 3256 9045 3250 9052 3255 9059
      3255 9065 3259 9066 3259 9069 3262 9069
      3262 9072 3263 9069 3265 9073 3269 9071
      3266 9069 3267 9066 3270 9068 3273 9074
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 112DEG 23KT 3265 9056

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DC