Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
706 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:

A few outflow boundaries will continue to focus some convective
potential through the early evening with coverage/intensity
diminishing as we go beyond sunset. There appears to be some
greater potential for sub-VFR category stratus tonight in the
guidance and have reflected this in the TAFs. Any stratus would
lift to VFR by late Sunday morning. Outside of scattered
diurnally driven TSRA, and perhaps some patchy early morning fog
once again mainly in the Pine Belt region, VFR conditions should
prevail through Saturday along with light surface wind. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon through Sunday: Convective coverage has increased
during the heating of the day across much of northeast LA,
southeast AR, and parts of southwest MS. This is mainly along a
remnant outflow boundary leftover from overnight convection.
However, we are also seeing isolated shower development over the
northern part of the area where the atmosphere has had more time
to recover from morning convection. It's humid once again, with
heat indices in a few spots up around 105F-110F at times, though
not consistently so. Expect the highest concentration of
convection through the early evening to continue to be across the
south/west portion of the area. Overnight, we may see activity
shift back to the north as a weak front dips into the Mid South
(but appears unlikely to actually make it into our area). Once
again tomorrow, we're looking for another round of scattered to
numerous showers and storms, with coverage diurnally-driven (more
focused in the afternoon hours) but overnight/morning activity not
out of the question either given proximity of the front and mid
level disturbances. Locally heavy downpours will remain possible
into tomorrow given the potential for erratic storm motions and
rather moist airmass with 2"+ PWs forecast. /DL/

Sunday night through Friday...

Remnants of what was Tropical Depression Fred are expected to
reorganize and strengthen, and move toward the northern Gulf
Coast, shifting much of the flow to more easterly by Sunday
evening over the forecast area. Pops dominate the forecast with a
continuation of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Better chances
of course in the afternoon, with heat of day...but with proximity
of tropical system to the east...pops continue through the
overnight east of I-55. Although temperatures are seasonably warm
throughout the forecast, a warming trend kicks in around midweek
in the wake of Fred...and the weakening of the subtropical
ridge...allowing some of the Southwest heat to edge into the
region. In the ECMWF, 850mb temps start to approach 19C-21C by
Friday afternoon. Towards the latter half of the week, parts of
the Delta and west the I-55 corridor may be close to heat indices
approaching 105F/heat advisory criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  90  72  89 /  46  72  47  62
Meridian      72  91  71  88 /  45  72  48  54
Vicksburg     74  90  73  89 /  54  65  34  57
Hattiesburg   73  92  72  89 /  51  67  38  53
Natchez       72  89  72  89 /  55  65  32  54
Greenville    72  88  71  87 /  55  57  33  56
Greenwood     72  89  71  87 /  53  66  41  65

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
108 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
151815-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
108 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and central and south Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Friday.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
843 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

MSZ033-150230-
Oktibbeha MS-
843 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Oktibbeha County through 930 PM CDT...

At 842 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sessums, or near Starkville, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Starkville and Sessums.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3336 8867 3338 8882 3351 8874 3354 8867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 015DEG 6KT 3342 8875

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
858 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSW BELLEVUE          31.26N 89.49W
08/14/2021                   LAMAR              MS   PUBLIC

            WATER HAD COVERED PART OF WPA ROAD.

&&

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
902 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

MSZ058-150245-
Clarke MS-
902 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Clarke
County through 945 PM CDT...

At 902 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
De Soto, or 9 miles south of Quitman. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Goodwater and Shubuta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 8856 3185 8863 3183 8876 3183 8891
      3192 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 214DEG 2KT 3190 8872

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
917 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

MSZ029-032-033-150300-
Oktibbeha MS-Choctaw MS-Webster MS-
917 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Choctaw, northwestern Oktibbeha and Webster Counties through 1000 PM
CDT...

At 917 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sherwood, or 18 miles southwest of Montpelier, moving southwest at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Eupora, Maben, Mathiston, Bellefontaine, Reform, Sherwood, Embry,
Clarkson and Walthall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3345 8897 3333 8915 3348 8936 3372 8948
      3373 8919
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 058DEG 5KT 3350 8913

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
926 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

MSZ063-064-150300-
Lawrence MS-Jefferson Davis MS-
926 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Lawrence and southern Jefferson Davis Counties through 1000 PM CDT...

At 926 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Progress, or 20 miles north of Columbia, moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Oak Vale, Progress, Robinwood, Tilton, Arm, Carson and Bassfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3139 9007 3153 9014 3161 8973 3144 8965
      3143 8971 3144 8982 3142 8983
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 140DEG 7KT 3153 8994

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
949 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

MSZ052-058-150330-
Lauderdale MS-Clarke MS-
949 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Clarke and
southeastern Lauderdale Counties through 1030 PM CDT...

At 949 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Middleton, or 9 miles northeast of Quitman, moving northwest at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Quitman, Stonewall, Barnett, Zero, Sable, Alamucha, Middleton, Sykes,
Increase, Kewanee, Snell and Pachuta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8844 3189 8891 3220 8890 3244 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 140DEG 7KT 3216 8865

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

TW