Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
706 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:

A few outflow boundaries will continue to focus some convective
potential through the early evening with coverage/intensity
diminishing as we go beyond sunset. There appears to be some
greater potential for sub-VFR category stratus tonight in the
guidance and have reflected this in the TAFs. Any stratus would
lift to VFR by late Sunday morning. Outside of scattered
diurnally driven TSRA, and perhaps some patchy early morning fog
once again mainly in the Pine Belt region, VFR conditions should
prevail through Saturday along with light surface wind. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon through Sunday: Convective coverage has increased
during the heating of the day across much of northeast LA,
southeast AR, and parts of southwest MS. This is mainly along a
remnant outflow boundary leftover from overnight convection.
However, we are also seeing isolated shower development over the
northern part of the area where the atmosphere has had more time
to recover from morning convection. It's humid once again, with
heat indices in a few spots up around 105F-110F at times, though
not consistently so. Expect the highest concentration of
convection through the early evening to continue to be across the
south/west portion of the area. Overnight, we may see activity
shift back to the north as a weak front dips into the Mid South
(but appears unlikely to actually make it into our area). Once
again tomorrow, we're looking for another round of scattered to
numerous showers and storms, with coverage diurnally-driven (more
focused in the afternoon hours) but overnight/morning activity not
out of the question either given proximity of the front and mid
level disturbances. Locally heavy downpours will remain possible
into tomorrow given the potential for erratic storm motions and
rather moist airmass with 2"+ PWs forecast. /DL/

Sunday night through Friday...

Remnants of what was Tropical Depression Fred are expected to
reorganize and strengthen, and move toward the northern Gulf
Coast, shifting much of the flow to more easterly by Sunday
evening over the forecast area. Pops dominate the forecast with a
continuation of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Better chances
of course in the afternoon, with heat of day...but with proximity
of tropical system to the east...pops continue through the
overnight east of I-55. Although temperatures are seasonably warm
throughout the forecast, a warming trend kicks in around midweek
in the wake of Fred...and the weakening of the subtropical
ridge...allowing some of the Southwest heat to edge into the
region. In the ECMWF, 850mb temps start to approach 19C-21C by
Friday afternoon. Towards the latter half of the week, parts of
the Delta and west the I-55 corridor may be close to heat indices
approaching 105F/heat advisory criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  90  72  89 /  46  72  47  62
Meridian      72  91  71  88 /  45  72  48  54
Vicksburg     74  90  73  89 /  54  65  34  57
Hattiesburg   73  92  72  89 /  51  67  38  53
Natchez       72  89  72  89 /  55  65  32  54
Greenville    72  88  71  87 /  55  57  33  56
Greenwood     72  89  71  87 /  53  66  41  65

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
108 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
151815-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
108 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and central and south Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Friday.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
337 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

ARZ074-075-142130-
Chicot AR-Ashley AR-
337 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Chicot
and Ashley Counties through 430 PM CDT...

At 337 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Dermott to near Crossett. Movement was
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Crossett, Hamburg, Dermott, North Crossett, West Crossett, Portland,
Montrose, Fountain Hill, Old Milo, Mcmillan Corner, Snyder and
Berlin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9179 3339 9146 3356 9145 3356 9136
      3352 9135 3353 9135 3353 9134 3352 9131
      3341 9121 3300 9190 3301 9195 3320 9211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 331DEG 11KT 3348 9135 3311 9201

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
408 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

ARZ074-075-MSZ034-142200-
Chicot AR-Ashley AR-Washington MS-
408 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Chicot,
southeastern Ashley and northwestern Washington Counties through 500
PM CDT...

At 408 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Winterville to 6 miles west of Lake
Village to near Hamburg. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Lake Village, Metcalfe, Portland, Montrose, Parkdale,
Mcmillan Corner and Winterville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3336 9143 3353 9117 3353 9084 3333 9103
      3319 9129 3308 9165 3324 9177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 324DEG 12KT 3347 9111 3331 9139 3321 9177

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
458 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

MSZ019-034-035-040-041-142245-
Washington MS-Sharkey MS-Humphreys MS-Sunflower MS-Issaquena MS-
458 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Sunflower,
southern Washington, north central Issaquena, northwestern Humphreys
and northwestern Sharkey Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 458 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Glen Allan, or 10 miles south of Avon, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hollandale, Inverness, Isola, Darlove, Grace, Panther Burn, Estill,
Nitta Yuma, Delta City, Murphy, Glen Allan, Mayersville and Arcola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3323 9045 3286 9105 3298 9109 3298 9113
      3301 9117 3304 9113 3306 9112 3308 9115
      3314 9109 3324 9103 3342 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 329DEG 10KT 3308 9103

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
728 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

MSZ030-150115-
Clay MS-
728 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Clay
County through 815 PM CDT...

At 728 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
West Point, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
West Point and Pala Alto.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3358 8849 3357 8849 3356 8867 3357 8867
      3356 8872 3357 8878 3373 8883 3374 8872
      3368 8872 3368 8850 3367 8849 3367 8850
      3365 8852 3364 8850 3362 8851 3360 8847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 074DEG 7KT 3365 8858

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TW